Todd's Takes: The Book and The Man

Streaks and Artificial Endpoints

We all do it. Analysts do it when discussing players. Fantasy managers do it when setting lineups or discussing trades. How players have done — good or bad — in an arbitrary sample, fashions opinions.

I'm as guilty an anyone. Be it in Box Score Blitz or recommending players in my ESPN Daily Notes, I'll pick out the time frame when a player "got hot" and quote those stats and vice versa. I do it knowing it's not predictive, but I usually try to include something more so the hot streak or cold streak accentuates the point. That said, a slash line or a pitcher's ratios are relatable, so they make for an easy way to discuss a player.

I began thinking about this when clicking through several games over the weekend. Announcers spew these same numbers incessantly. Some broadcasts have a feature where they contrast two players that are "hot" or "cold" and track them during the game. I yelled at my TV when one was shown on Sunday, then I realized there are times I am just as guilty, or lazy, when I write.

How a player has performed lately should not be used to access how he'll do that day. Some streaks happen due to a player facing better or worse opponents. Some are luck-driven, while some are indeed a player being in a groove or rut. The bottom line is players can be truly hot or cold, but the streak can end at any time. It's still best to use historical performance tempered by the matchup when making decisions. Please note that historical performance here means overall, not just against a particular player or team.

This is also true of splits. There are always examples of players displaying a reverse split from his career levels. It takes full-time players at least five and potentially more than 10 seasons to own their platoon splits. It's always best to assume a batter's numbers will be better when facing a pitcher of opposite handedness, even if their in-season splits show otherwise. As the player accumulates plate appearances, his historical numbers can be regressed to the average split. Research from The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball by Tom M. Tango, Mitchel G. Lichtman and Andrew E. Dolphin contends a right-handed batter needs 2000 plate appearances against lefties before be owns his splits, while a left-handed batter requires 1000 trips to the dish. In a typical 650 plate appearance season, a batter will amass around 180 against southpaws, so a lefty swinger needs about six years while a righty requires 11 to get to the magic number.

As far as using streaks to accentuate a point, there is research showing that players making more frequent and authoritative contact are a bit more likely to sustain a streak, or sometimes start one. Even so, sometime the lower strikeout rate or elevated hard hit rate comes from facing less quality pitching.

Lastly, most MLB managers don't care about what it says in The Book; hot players are in the lineup, often at a higher spot in the order, while cold players are benched or dropped in the order. This is my favorite utilization of streaks — gathering playing time info.

I can't promise I'll refrain from referencing stats over an arbitrary time frame, but I'll do my best to frame it within a larger, more statistically actionable point.

Good luck, TMR

While watching the draft coverage on Sunday night, I reminisced a bit as MLB Network's Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo were both active in the fantasy realm back in the day. MLB Network's Lauren Shehadi did fantasy stuff for CBSSportsline and of course Kay Adams did, and still does, crush it in fantasy football. It wouldn't surprise me if some of the current fantasy community makes it on a more mainstream level. 

Then there is the Talented Mr. Roto, Matthew Berry. At the conclusion of our Friday podcast, Clay Link always asks me if there is anything else on my mind. Last week, I wanted to publicly thank and wish luck to Matthew as he leaves ESPN for new ventures. When thinking about some of those making the transition from fantasy to mainstream last night, I realized I spaced on recognizing Matthew on the podcast.

Matthew was one of the reasons fantasy sports evolved from a niche hobby to a billion dollar industry. Anyone involved in fantasy sports owes Matthew a debt of gratitude, some (like me) more than others. If the industry had not grown as it did in the late 2000s, there is a good chance I never would have been able to make the transition from peptide chemist to whatever it is I do now. While it was Jason Grey who hooked me up with ESPN, Matthew always had my back, both with the company and in general. I would wake up several mornings with a ton more Twitter followers than the previous evening, always from being cited by Matthew, usually when he was asked for analysts to follow. 

Anyway, I'm forever grateful for what the Talented Mr. Roto has done for the industry.

Taking it in Stride

Regretfully, I didn't catch any of Spencer Strider's start on Sunday. I reviewed the game log, and checked out some highlights, but it's not the same as watching live.

One of my favorite things to do when viewing young pitching is seeing how they react to adversity. Strider walked Josh Bell to lead off the second inning, then punched out Luis Garcia and Yadiel Hernandez. Maikel Franco then hit a 58-mph dribbler to third which Austin Riley should have put in his back pocket, but he threw wildly to first, allowing Bell to take third and Franco to cruise into second.

It was going to be an infield hit, so to call this adversity is a stretch. Even so, had I been watching, I would have been curious how Strider approached the next batter, Ehire Adrianza. Adrianza was looking up at the Mendoza line, with a career-high 25 percent strikeout rate. This is the type of hitter I would have expected Strider to fan. He started Adrianza off with a 98-mph four-seamer for a strike. Adrianza then fouled off a 96-mph fastball and a slider. He took a fastball in the dirt before fouling off a 99-mph heater. Strider then hung a slider which Adrianza laced into center for a two-run single. Again, without watching in the moment, analysis is hollow, but Strider did go after Adrianza; he just threw a 1-2 cookie and Adrianza lined it 95-mph up the middle.

Strider then threw three fastballs to Victor Robles. With a 1-2 count, he buried a slider, not tempting Robles. The Nationals No. 9 hitter then sent a 98-mph heater at the knees 383 feet to left for a two-run shot. Would_it_Dong had the blast leaving 18 of 30 parks, so it wasn't a cheapie. Reiterating there is only so much to be gleaned from a box score, and it's downright silly to read too much into a 10-pitch sequence, but I would have been shaking my head a little.

That said, it hasn't altered my feelings on Strider, but I'll be paying extra attention to the next time he needs reach back for a little something to extricate himself from a jam.

Box Score Blitz

• TOR 4, KC 2: After Sunday's solid effort, albeit against a makeshift lineup, Jose Berrios has posted a 3.09 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 29 strikeouts and only four walks in 29.1 July innings. It would be better, but he's still snake bit with a .355 BABIP this month. Blue Jays interim manager John Schneider gave All-Star George Springer the day off. With the leadoff spot open, he recognized the other three Toronto All-Stars by putting them at the top of the order. Santiago Espinal, Vladimir Guerrero and Alejandro Kirk responded with a combined 4-for-12 afternoon, accounting for all four runs, two of which came on an eighth-inning homer from Kirk. Nick Pratto hit his first career homer but was then sent back to Double-A. However, it shouldn't be too long before Pratto and Vinnie Pasquantino are splitting first base and designated hitter.
• WSH 7, ATL 3: How many guesses would you have needed to peg Matt Olson as the MLB leader in plate appearances at the break? Juan Soto had a homer in four at bats, bringing his line since June 24 to a robust .391/.547/.750.
• NYY 13, BOS 2: Gerrit Cole's 12 strikeouts leaves him tied for the MLB league heading into the break. Speaking of break, I assume you've seen Chris Sale's pinky finger. OUCH. Either Josh Winckowski or Kutter Crawford (or maybe both) will be asked to step up in the lanky lefty's absence. I'm intrigued by Crawford and stashed him on a couple of teams.
• TB 7, BAL 5: With Sunday's 4-for-4 effort, Brandon Lowe is 6-for-8 since coming off the IL on Saturday, scoring four runs. Hopefully your league rules allowed for his activation. Tampa lost yet another hitter, with Harold Ramirez being diagnosed with a broken thumb after being hit with a pitch. Randy Arozarena has helped pick up the slack with a .259/.348/.586 July, but he's still fanned 29 percent of the time this month. After beginning the month 0-for-8, Adley Rutschman has posted a .278/.400/.556 line since July 4.
• PHI 4, MIA 0: Aaron Nola came within two outs of a shutout, but after giving up singles to Joey Wendle and Brian Anderson, Nola was removed for Jose Alvarado, who collected his first save, making it four different relievers collecting the last four Phillies saves. Seranthony Dominguez is still the favorite, but his leash is short. Alec Bohm is showing no ill effects from his dislocated finger. After missing three games, he heads into the break with a tidy 3-for-8, bringing his line since June 4 to .310/.338/.450.
• CHW 11, MIN 0: Dylan Cease sent a message to those leaving him off the All-Star team with a stellar seven-inning effort, fanning eight with just one hit and two free passes. The White Sox lineup stepped up without Luis Robert (head) and Eloy Jimenez (leg), with every starter but Gavin Sheets collecting at least one knock. Yoan Moncada heads into the break with a modest five-game hitting streak (9-for-22) and a palatable 27 percent strikeout rate. More importantly, his average exit velocity is up a couple of ticks this month.
• OAK 4, HOU 3: Kudos to the Athletics' bullpen for 4.2 inning of scoreless ball after the Astros tallied three off fill-in starter Adam Oller. Frankie Montas was slated to start, but Oakland decided to have him throw a couple more bullpens before he starts their first game out of the break. After 11 consecutive appearances in which he allowed at least one runner, Lou Trivino threw a clean ninth for his eighth save.
• CHC 3, NYM 2: David Peterson continued his newfound strikeout dominance, fanning eight in five frames, but the Cubs hammered Drew Smith, setting up David Robertson for his 13th save. After the Cubs acquired Nick Madrigal and Andrelton Simmons, it looked like Nico Hoerner would be the odd man out this season. Instead, injuries paved the way for Hoerner to play regularly, and he's responded by slashing .307/.344/.423 while also playing an outstanding shortstop with 10 defensive runs saved.
• SEA 6, TEX 2: Seattle's winning streak is up to a baker's dozen. Their 13th was keyed by pair of All Stars, Julio Rodriguez and Ty France. They got some help from Cal Raleigh who has emerged as the Mariners primary backstop. In fact, Raleigh has been a top-eight fantasy catcher this month.
• PIT 8, COL 3: After scoring only two runs in the first two games of their three-game set in Coors, the third time was the charm for the Pirates, with Kevin Newman leading the way. Since he was activated from the IL on July 8, Newman has posted a .300/.333/.375 slash line. He doesn't offer much power or speed, but Newman is an adequate fill-in for the preponderance of middle infield injuries.
• SF 9, MIL 5: Now that they're healthy again, the Giants are able to play the platoon game again. That said, with Mike Yastrzemski unable to match last season's production against right-handers, Austin Slater has been more than just a short-side platoon player. It likely won't last, but as long as Slater is leading off, he merits mixed-league consideration.  
• ARI 3, SD 1: Sunday marked Merrill Kelly's eighth straight outing of at least six frames, six of which registered as quality starts. He's posted a 2.81 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over that span, though with a moderate 40 punch outs in 51.1 stanzas. He's due an ERA correction (.243 BABIP, 74.9 percent LOB and 4.05 xFIP), but Kelly warrants home streaming consideration coming out of the break. He may have pitched himself into trade consideration.