A.J. Minter

A.J. Minter

29-Year-Old PitcherRP
Atlanta Braves
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Those who take a skills-based approach when speculating on saves late in drafts should look no further than Minter, who may now be one injury away from becoming Atlanta's closer. The southpaw posted his best strikeout (34.7%) and walk (5.5%) rates since his rookie-season sample in 2017 and was 7th among qualifed relievers with a 29.2% K-BB percentage. He pitched a career-high 70 innings and led the league with 35 holds while adding a handful of saves. Minter's 96.6 mph average fastball velocity tied a career high, while his cutter and changeup were also effective in generating whiffs and strikeouts. If the lefty maintains his newfound control, there may be even more opportunity for saves, even if he's not the Braves primary closer. Either way, Minter is a top-tier target for leagues that count holds. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a one-year, $2.2 million contract with the Braves in March of 2022.
Collects fifth save
PAtlanta Braves
July 16, 2022
Minter walked one and struck out one in a third of an inning Friday to record his fifth save of the season in an 8-4 win over the Nationals.
ANALYSIS
Will Smith began the ninth inning with Atlanta ahead 8-1, but his struggles forced manager Brian Snitker to turn to Minter to quash a Washington rally as Kenley Jansen had pitched each of the prior two days. Over his last 10 appearances, a stretch that includes all five of his saves plus three of his 18 holds, Minter sports a 2.16 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 10:2 K:BB through 8.1 innings.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
15
Last 10 Games
16
Last 5 Games
19
How many pitches does A.J. Minter generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does A.J. Minter generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-18%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-41%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-18%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-33%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .182 201 69 17 32 11 0 1
Since 2020vs Right .223 375 106 27 76 21 2 7
2022vs Left .132 77 31 5 9 3 0 1
2022vs Right .222 194 63 10 40 9 0 4
2021vs Left .200 99 30 10 17 6 0 0
2021vs Right .245 122 27 10 27 10 1 2
2020vs Left .261 25 8 2 6 2 0 0
2020vs Right .176 59 16 7 9 2 1 1
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-42%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-16%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-60%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-100%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 3.13 1.13 72.0 4 6 3 10.5 2.1 0.5
Since 2020Away 1.80 0.99 70.0 5 5 2 11.2 3.5 0.4
2022Home 2.23 0.85 36.1 2 0 3 12.6 0.5 0.5
2022Away 1.87 0.98 33.2 3 4 2 11.5 3.5 0.8
2021Home 5.33 1.37 27.0 2 5 0 8.7 3.7 0.7
2021Away 2.13 1.07 25.1 1 1 0 11.0 3.2 0.0
2020Home 0.00 1.50 8.2 0 1 0 7.3 4.2 0.0
2020Away 0.82 0.82 11.0 1 0 0 10.6 4.1 0.0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does A.J. Minter compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 30 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
6.27
 
K/9
12.1
 
BB/9
1.9
 
HR/9
0.6
 
Fastball
96.7 mph
 
ERA
2.06
 
WHIP
0.91
 
BABIP
.299
 
GB/FB
1.02
 
Left On Base
75.4%
 
Exit Velocity
81.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.4%
 
Spin Rate
2363 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
18.8%
 
Swinging Strike
16.5%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring A.J. Minter
The Z Files: OK, I'm SOLD
Yesterday
Todd Zola reconsiders his stance against adding holds as a roto category, and takes a look at the impact it would have on relievers like Devin Williams.
Closer Encounters: 2022 Saves in Review, Part 1
52 days ago
Ryan Rufe recaps this past season's saves landscape. Just how many teams preferred closer committees over the conventional approach?
The Z Files: NFBC Holdem Rankings and Strategies
54 days ago
Todd Zola shares his gameplan and his rankings for NFBC Postseason Holdem contests.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Minter has gone from a potential closer early in his career to someone now stuck toiling in middle relief in his current home. The lefty has plenty of velocity and has struck out 27.3% of the hitters he has faced in nearly 180 innings of major-league work while keeping the ball in the yard. An argument could be made for Minter to work higher-leverage innings for a lesser club. Atlanta already has high-leverage lefties in Will Smith and Tyler Matzek, so it's possible Minter is packaged up in something should Atlanta want to find a Freddie Freeman replacement on the open market once the lockout ends. This is an interesting case of taking the skills while seeing what role develops for Minter.
Minter earned 15 saves for Atlanta in 2018 and generated quite a bit of buzz before falling off in 2019. He lost the closer job in a hurry, spent time in the minors and ended that year on the IL with shoulder inflammation. The lefty uses a slider -- categorized sometimes as a cutter -- as his primary pitch and is comfortable using it in all counts. Meanwhile the four-seam fastball velocity held steady at 95.5 mph on average, so there are no obvious lingering effects of the shoulder issue that ended his 2019 season. He's allowed just one homer to lefty hitters in his career, and while less dominant against righties, he's held his own against opposite-handed pitching at the MLB level (3.58 FIP). Minter is not even the top southpaw in his bullpen -- that's Will Smith -- but the closer carousel is always going to turn and it's not hard to imagine Minter getting saves again at some point in 2021.
Many drafted Minter with the hope he would receive the bulk of the Braves' save chances in 2019, but all were disappointed by his efforts. Minter's season began with a sore shoulder which led to a velocity dip and control issues that sent him to Triple-A for a bit. The numbers in Gwinnett were more in line with what everyone hoped for -- he had a healthy 28.7 K-BB% and a sub-3.00 xFIP -- but it was too little too late. He only appeared in two games in September, the result of more shoulder trouble. Minter's draft-day value will depend in part on how the shoulder holds up to the offseason therapy, though with Will Smith joining Mark Melancon at the back end of the Atlanta bullpen, Minter is even further from the closer role. Hopefully he can avoid shoulder surgery. We have seen what he is capable of, and we have also seen how fragile things can be when Minter has something wrong with him.
Minter was a popular handcuff for Arodys Vizcaino last spring. The move proved prescient as Vizcaino was sidelined for a couple months and yielded closing duties to Minter. When Vizcaino returned in mid-September, they initially shared the role before Vizcaino took over the last week and into the playoffs. Minter finished the season with 15 saves and 12 holds. However, he was sluggish over the second half, registering a 3.79 ERA and 1.47 WHIP the final two months. Minter throws a 97-mph fastball and 92-mph slider, occasionally mixing in a change. He’s dominant enough for ninth-inning duties, but inconsistent control gets him into trouble occasionally. That's what happened the final two months of the season, likely putting Minter behind Vizcaino for the closing gig in the spring, Still, with Vizcaino’s own dalliance with control woes along with health issues, Minter will again be a top speculative saves dart.
Minter debuted with the Braves last season after cruising through the minor-league system with a big four-seam fastball, slider and cutter combo. He showed a few issues with walks at Double-A and Triple-A last season before his promotion, but he was sharp in Atlanta and his walk rate in 2016 was a non-issue across three levels. Rather quietly, Minter struck out 43.3 percent of the batters he faced, thanks to a gaudy 18.2 percent swinging-strike rate. It would hardly be surprising if Minter gets a chance to serve as the Braves' primary late-inning lefty, as he has the overpowering stuff necessary to help get the ball to Arodys Vizcaino in the ninth inning. In the event that Vizcaino falters or gets hurt, Minter is on the short list of interesting options who could take over the closer role, but he's on an even shorter list of Atlanta relievers capable of making an impact as a strikeout machine and ratios helper even if he's not providing saves.
More Fantasy News
Picks up fourth save
PAtlanta Braves
July 12, 2022
Minter earned the save Tuesday, striking out one in a perfect ninth inning of a 4-1 win over the Mets.
ANALYSIS
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Snags third save
PAtlanta Braves
July 9, 2022
Minter saved Saturday's 4-3 win against the Nationals, allowing two hits while striking out one in a scoreless ninth inning.
ANALYSIS
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Picks up save
PAtlanta Braves
July 7, 2022
Minter picked up the save in Wednesday's 3-0 win over the Cardinals, allowing no runs on one hit while striking out one and walking none across one inning.
ANALYSIS
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Notches first save of year
PAtlanta Braves
June 28, 2022
Minter struck out one in a perfect ninth inning Tuesday to record his first save of the season in a 5-3 win over the Phillies.
ANALYSIS
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Could be closer candidate
PAtlanta Braves
June 28, 2022
Minter and Will Smith are viewed as the top candidates to pick up saves for Atlanta after closer Kenley Jansen was placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday due to an irregular heartbeat, David O'Brien of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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