Collette Calls: Closer Carousel In Full Swing

Edwin Diaz, Robert Suarez, Devin Williams, Kyle Finnegan, Emilio Pagan, Pete Fairbanks, Kenley Jansen and Raisel Iglesias all became free agents this winter, thus seemingly creating opportunities for new relievers to ascend to the closer role in 2026. Iglesias already re-signed with Atlanta, and he may not be the only pitcher to go back to his old team when it is all said and done this winter. 

Given the current depth of open opportunities as many of us begin different drafts this winter in preparation for local or higher-stakes drafts in the spring, I thought it might be helpful to walk you through my own process of how I evaulate auditions to look for some hidden opportunties in bullpens. This could be especially helpful for those of us doing the 50-round draft-and-hold formats. After all, Emilio Pagan is arguably the best most recent success story, as he saved 32 games with impressive ratios for Cincinnati and had an ADP of 703 last winter. Will Vest was not too far behind with 23 saves for Detroit despite his 717 ADP. Dennis Santana took over for a first struggling and then eventually traded David Bedar to save 16 games and had an ADP of 549. Finally, Daniel Palencia had 22 saves and did not even have an ADP, as nobody found him to be worthy of a draft pick last winter. In total, there were nine different relievers with double-digit saves in 2025 who were drafted outside the top 250. 

Each of us likely has our own process for evaluating the numbers on potential closers. I have whittled mine down into a singular table so I can get a quick overview of the pitchers and decide which line I'm most comfortable rostering. I find this approach particularly helpful when advising others and like to hide the identies of pitchers to eliminate any preconceived bias toward them. I like to look at the Stuff+ metrics at a per-pitch level, the overall Stuff+, Location+ and Pitching+ grades, and finally, the K-BB% of the pitcher, because it's such a strong leading indicator of pitching success. Below is a table of such numbers for a mystery team heading into Opening Day of 2025:

I see three lefties in the opening day pen, so I can ignore any type of lefty bias for relievers since this club has multiple options. I first look at the pitch-level stuff grades looking for how many average (100) or better (>100) that pitcher has in his arsenal. Pitcher 1 has a great slider, but his other pitchers are not there. Pitcher two has three pitches at or better than average, as does Pitcher 4 on this list. I would then hone in on the Stuff+, Location+ and Pitching+ columns and see that one pitcher was better than average in all three while the other one struggled a bit in location. Finally, K-BB% favors Pitcher 2. 

Based on this data alone, Pitcher 2 appears to be the best option in this bullpen. In fact, he was, as that pitcher was Emilio Pagan, and his indicators were the best on paper in the Cincinnati pen. Yet, myself, and many others, could not get past previous issues (bias!) with Pagan's extreme flyball tendences leading to home runs and how pitching in Great American Ballpark was seemingly a terrible fit. The Reds gave Pagan a two-year deal December 1, and that should have been a strong indicator of what they thought about his upside. Pagan still had an ADP of 680 in Draft Champions leagues last season and went completely undrafted in all Main Event drafts. 

Mistakes were made by many. Let's apply a similar process to some of the unsettled bullpen situations as things stand now around the league to see who could become this year's Pagan for fantasy managers. 

Baltimore

Helsley, despite his issues last season, still looks fantasic on paper. Kittredge is the boring, safer guy because he's regularly in the zone, but Helsley still throws FOUR above-average pitches including the best overall pitch in the bullpen and easily has the nastiest stuff. Helsley, if past his issues from 2025, could be this year's Andres Munoz. 

Tampa Bay

The Rays non-tendered Pete Fairbanks, leaving this formerly predictable situation rather unpredictable. Jax has the highest ADP in the 25 Draft Champions leagues at 288, with Uceta next at 330. I, too, would be leaning to Jax based off the numbers agove, but I'm also not sleeping on Cleavinger. Montgomery is in the pen as another lefty, while Cleavinger shows three above-average pitches and has the best fastball of the entire bunch. Cleavinger's current ADP is 609, which means he's going undrafted in some DC50s since only 600 players are selected in that format. 

Athletics

There is not one great option here, but I'll be picking up as many shares of Justin Sterner as I can in drafts with him having three average or better pitches and the best stuff of the group. It still would not surprise me to see the club go sign a vet on a discount and try to prop up his trade value, but if things stay like this, Sterner looks to be the best option.

Minnesota

I look at these choices and think back to Brewter's Millions; I want none of the above. This situation is screaming for outside help. They could bring back old friend Pagan, or give Shawn Armstrong a chance here to see whether what he did for Texas last season is real. This is currently a third closer situation, at best, until Minnesota does somehting else. I would be interested in Funderburk if there was more lefty depth in this pen, but Funderburk is the only lefty on the current depth chart who has thrown a major-league pitch. 

Mets

It is highly unlikely this is the go-forward pen for the Mets in 2026 after losing Edwin Diaz to free agency. It was announced just after I submitted this for editing that the Mets were signing Devin Williams to a three-year deal. They could bring Diaz back, but their pen suffered some serious attrition last year losing Tylor Megill, Reed Garrett and Dedniel Nunez to Tommy John surgeries. Raley would be interesting as an atypical closer, and the pen has multiple lefty options out of the pen. This list also does not include Adbert Alzolay, who the club signed to a two-year deal prior to last season knowing he would miss all of 2025 rehabbing his own Tommy John surgery. The signing of Williams fixes this problem. 

Nationals

The Nationals have a history of, well, Nationaling and throwing wrenches into closer speculations. Their bullpen lost Kyle Finnegan at the deadline, and on paper, this job should be Ferrer's to lose. He has three above-average piches and solid overall metrics, while the other pitchers are lagging behind him. The Nationals also have two other lefties on the depth chart in the pen, which should not hold Ferrer back from closing out games. He saved 11 contests after Finnegan was dealt with a 25.3 percent strikeout rate and a 21.1 percent K-BB%. If you compare Ferrer's 2025 under-the-hood numbers from BaseballSavant to Jose Alvarado's 2024 numbers, there are a lot of similarities. I took Ferrer as a CL3 in the 19th round of my current DC50 because I strongly believe he keeps this job and runs with it all season. 

Reds

I believe it is telling that the club had both Ashcraft and Santillan around last season and yet still went outside the organization to address the closing situation. Ashcraft looks best on paper, but his K-BB% doesn't exactly warm the heart. I would expect the club to seek outside counsel to address this job once again, and someone like the aforementioned Armstrong makes a lot of sense here. 

Cardinals

St. Louis is beginning a rebuild, so they really have no need to look outside the organization for their next closer. Their current depth chart has but two lefties in Romero and Nick Raquet, which hurt's Romero's chances. Svanson has two above-average pitches and the far superior K-BB% and should be the player to target here as long as the Cardinals stay in-house for saves.

Angels

Stephenson is in the final year of a three-year $33M deal and the Angels would like to get something from him this season before attempting to deal the remainder of his contract at the deadline, assuming they're once again trailing in the AL West. Stephenson had amazing stuff with Tampa Bay which earned him the contract, and we saw flashes of that in his brief time last season. Zeferjahn is intriging on paper with three plus pitches and the best overall stuff in the pen, but that comes with the worst location as well. I believe we all know the Angels are going to give someone a contract to come in and do the job rather than give these guys a chance. Should they surprise us, I would expect Stephenson's contract to dictate the pecking order early in the season.

Arizona

Thompson looks intriguing until you remember he's a righty with an extreme arm angle who struggles to get lefties out on a consistent basis. This is going to become home to a free agent because this current depth chart lacks a serviceable primary closer.

Hopefully my breakdown of these situations using my personal process in how I evaluate bullpens is helpful to you as you look to figure out who this year's Emilio Pagan will be in fantasy baseball.