Jonathan Aranda

26-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Tampa Bay Rays

2024 Stats

AVG

.234

RBI

2025 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Aranda's 2024 was a potpourri of events. He had a fantastic spring, but broke a finger near the end of it and that short-circuited his start to the season. He made it to the major league roster in May when the Rays were dealing with injuries, but went back down in early June and wasn't seen again until the end of August. His time in Triple-A Durham was unlike his previous season as han oblique strain there limited his playing time and his ability to hit for power. Even more concerning was he lost his contact abilities with a career-worst 32.6% strikeout rate. The only true upside to his season was how he closed it as he showed some surprising pop down the stretch with 5 doubles and 5 homers after his final promotion. Most of his batted ball metrics trended in a positive direction as the season closed, and the temporary home for the Rays in 2025 should be a good fit for Aranda. He is out of options, so he is a lock to make the team as long as he isn't traded in the offseason. The 1B-only eligiblity makes him truly only draftable in the draft and hold formats or deeper mono-league formats but there are enough late signs of growth to remain intrigued for 2025. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 5'10"

Weight 173

DOB 5/23/1998

Born Tijuana, Mexico

College None

Drafted 2015 TB

Sitting versus Skubal

1BTampa Bay Rays

September 24, 2024

Aranda is not in the lineup for Tuesday's game in Detroit.

ANALYSIS
The left-handed hitter has homered in three straight contests, but with southpaw ace Tarik Skubal on the bump for the Tigers in this one, Aranda will take a seat. Brandon Lowe will be at first base for the Rays in the series opener.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+57%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+37%

OPS vs RHP

2023

+121%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+119%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.457	35	2	0	0	0	.133	.257	.200
Since 2022vs Right	.718	298	43	10	33	0	.232	.315	.403
2024vs Left	.557	19	1	0	0	0	.176	.263	.294
2024vs Right	.765	124	21	6	14	0	.243	.315	.450
2023vs Left	.333	9	1	0	0	0	.000	.333	.000
2023vs Right	.735	94	12	2	13	0	.247	.340	.395
2022vs Left	.286	7	0	0	0	0	.143	.143	.143
2022vs Right	.626	80	10	2	6	0	.197	.288	.338
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+10%

OPS at Home

2024

+37%

OPS at Home

2023

+59%

OPS on Road

2022

+71%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.727	157	24	5	19	0	.226	.318	.409
Since 2022Away	.660	176	21	5	14	0	.218	.301	.359
2024Home	.879	56	10	4	10	0	.269	.321	.558
2024Away	.641	87	12	2	4	0	.211	.299	.342
2023Home	.542	50	7	0	5	0	.167	.280	.262
2023Away	.863	53	6	2	8	0	.289	.396	.467
2022Home	.725	51	7	1	4	0	.233	.353	.372
2022Away	.424	36	3	1	2	0	.143	.167	.257
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Stat Review

How does Jonathan Aranda compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.38

BB Rate

8.4%

K Rate

22.4%

BABIP

.264

ISO

.195

AVG

.234

OBP

.308

SLG

.430

OPS

.737

wOBA

.324

Exit Velocity

91.9 mph

Hard Hit Rate

47.4%

Barrels/PA

11.2%

Expected BA

.257

Expected SLG

.518

Sprint Speed

23.0 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

50.5%

Line Drive %

14.4%

Fly Ball %

35.1%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Jonathan Aranda Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

Aranda has done nothing but rake since advancing to the advanced levels of the minor leagues. .330/.426/.495 in High A ball, .325/.410/.540 in Double-A, and .328/.421/.565 in Tirple-A ball over nearly 900 plate appearances. However, none of that has translated into major league success as he owns a career .212/.311/.346 line in 190 major league plate appearances sprinkled over the past two seasons. Aranda is a patient hitter who is very accepting of his walks and made solid contact s a minor leaguer but the contact has been an issue as a big leaguer with a 28% strikeout rate and and 78% contact rate at the big league level. Aranda is nearly undraftable until the reserves for a few reasons, primarily because he is DH-only on draft day. Secondly, he is a terrible defender with poor range and has trouble with lefties so he loses playing time due to both deficiencies. Some may label him as Luiz Arraez lite whereas it would be more prudent to call him an Arraez knockoff.

Last year saw Luis Arraez surprise many with his hitting prowess at the plate that helped them, and Minnesota, gloss over his defensive struggles in the field. Aranda is that same story, but at the minor league level. Since graduating from the lower levels of the minors, he has hit .330 in High-A, .325 in Double-A, and .318 in Triple-A over the course of nearly 900 plate appearances with over a .400 OBP. Simply put, the young man can hit and he does so to all fields. He does not have Arraez's same incredible contact rate, but he does share the defensive challenges in that Aranda does not have a full-time defensive home. He lacks the range a modern day second baseman needs with the shift rules in place and he is not terribly quick either. The crowded depth chart in Tampa Bay with many players currently out of options could have Aranda right back in Durham if the club does not trade him first to a club more forgiving of his defensive shortcomings.

Aranda was 62 percent better than the average Double-A hitter and 70 percent better than the average High-A hitter during his breakout age-23 season. His exploits earned him a spot on the Rays' 40-man roster this offseason. While at Double-A, he played 48 games at first base, 17 games at second base and 10 games at third base. It will be his bat that earns him a look either this year or next, as he hit .330/.418/.543 with an 18.5 K% on the season. His 25.2 LD% and 39.0 FB% at Double-A were particularly encouraging marks. At 5-foot-10, 173 pounds, Aranda looks more like a second baseman than a first baseman, but it's just a matter of getting his left-handed bat in the lineup somewhere, so he will also likely get starts at designated hitter. He should spend most of the year at Triple-A.

More Fantasy News

Goes deep in third straight

1BTampa Bay Rays

September 23, 2024

Aranda went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run Sunday against the Blue Jays.