Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito

29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Boston Red Sox
60-Day IL
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 2/1/2025
2024 Fantasy Outlook
In 2022, Giolito registered a 4.90 ERA but a 3.66 xFIP and 3.79 SIERA portended a rebound last season. Things did not turn out as hoped for as Giolito recorded a 4.88 ERA pitching for three different teams. This time, the bloated ERA was mostly supported by its estimators as the righty's control and command suffered all season. Fanning 204 in 184.1 innings was solid, but a 9.2 percent walk rate and 41 homers surrendered were major reasons the White Sox and Angels gave up on Giolito before the pitching desperate Guardians picked him up to absorb innings down the stretch. Giolito's velocity and pitch mix was in sync with recent seasons, and after signing a two-year deal (with an opt-out after the first year) with Boston, there's hope that new pitching coach Andrew Bailey can help Giolito maximize a sweeper and return to the form he showed in the first half last year with Chicago (3.45 ERA). Giolito misses bats and hasn't missed more than a start or two every season since 2018, although he'll now be pitching in his most hitter-friendly home park to date. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#295
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $18 million contract with the Red Sox in December of 2023. Contract includes $19 million player option ($1 million buyout) for 2025. Contract includes $14 million team option for 2026 with less than 140 innings pitched in 2025 or $19 million mutual option ($1.5 million buyout) with 140 innings pitched in 2025. Contract includes $250,000 in incentives each season for each 150, 160, 170 and 180 innings pitched.
Goes on 60-day IL
PBoston Red Sox
Elbow
March 24, 2024
The Red Sox placed Giolito (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
ANALYSIS
The transaction is merely a procedural move, as Giolito is already set to miss the entire 2024 season while he recovers from the internal brace procedure he underwent on his right elbow earlier this month. The move opens up a spot on the 40-man roster for right-hander Chase Anderson, who is projected to serve as a long man out of the bullpen after Chris Murphy also recently suffered an elbow injury that's expected to require season-ending surgery. Signed by Boston this past offseason, Giolito will pocket $18 million in 2024 before likely exercising his $19 million player option for 2025 this coming winter.
Read More News
Pitching Stats
Loading Pitching Stats...
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2024 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2023 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2022 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2021 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2020 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2019 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2018 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2017 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Pitching Game Log...
Minor League Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Loading Minor League Pitching Game Log...
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-21%
BAA vs LHP
2024
No Stats
2023
 
 
-9%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-30%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .221 617 173 65 120 20 3 24
Since 2022vs Right .278 873 208 69 220 51 7 41
2024vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023vs Left .226 323 86 38 63 12 2 17
2023vs Right .249 469 118 35 106 22 5 24
2022vs Left .217 294 87 27 57 8 1 7
2022vs Right .312 404 90 34 114 29 2 17
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-5%
ERA at Home
2024
No Stats
2023
 
 
-41%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-37%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 4.75 1.24 165.0 10 11 0 9.9 2.8 1.6
Since 2022Away 5.02 1.49 181.0 9 13 0 9.9 4.1 1.8
2024Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023Home 3.58 1.03 88.0 5 4 0 10.0 2.9 1.5
2023Away 6.07 1.57 96.1 3 11 0 9.9 4.2 2.4
2022Home 6.08 1.48 77.0 5 7 0 9.8 2.8 1.6
2022Away 3.83 1.39 84.2 6 2 0 9.9 3.9 1.1
More Splits View More Split Stats
Advanced Pitching Stats
Loading Advanced Pitching Stats...
Defensive Stats
Loading MLB Defensive Stats...
Stats Vs Today's Lineup
Want more matchup stats?
Loading Matchup Stats...
Our full team depth charts are reserved for RotoWire subscribers.
Subscribe Now
Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Lucas Giolito See More
MLB Picks: Peter Schoenke's 2024 MLB Win Totals To Target
78 days ago
RotoWire President Peter Schoenke gives his annual take on MLB over/under bets. He's won 53.6 percent of his bets over 23 years. Is Kansas City really the most improved team?
NFBC Main Event
NFBC Main Event
80 days ago
80 days ago
Jeff Erickson and Tim Schuler drew the 1.1 pick in their NFBC Main Event. How did they build their roster after selecting Ronald Acuña Jr.?
Spring Training Job Battles: American League Late-March Update
81 days ago
Eight job battles have received significant updates this week, including Opening Day decisions on two top prospects and changes to three closer situations.
Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the AL East
90 days ago
Brad Johnson moves to pitching in the American League East, where in Baltimore, the Orioles signed pitching Ace Corbin Burnes to lead the team.
The Z Files: Five Is the New Four
93 days ago
Todd Zola considers the impact of extra rest on starting pitchers and wonders if the Orioles will treat Corbin Burnes with the same care that the Brewers did.
Latest Fantasy Rumors
Mets have strong interest
PFree Agent
December 27, 2023
The Mets are "showing strong interest" in Giolito, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
ANALYSIS
The Mets fell short in their bid for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but they're still in the market for rotation reinforcements. Giolito has some of the best upside of any free-agent starter still on the market and, at 29, is also one of the youngest. The right-hander collected a disappointing 4.88 ERA over 184.1 innings in 2023 but also struck out 200-plus batters for the third time in his career.
See All MLB Rumors
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
The right-hander established himself as a reliable front-end starter with a 3.47 ERA from 2019 to 2021, but he cratered last season with an ERA that approached 5.00. Giolito lost a tick on his fastball and saw his strikeout rate drop over two percentage points to 25.2 percent, though his HR/9 improved slightly to 1.3. The White Sox's poor defense certainly did him no favors, which is reflected in his 3.66 xFIP. Still, the poor results can't be entirely blamed on the defense, as he also allowed a 39 percent hard-hit rate, which represents a full-season career high. Giolito will turn 29 years old in July and is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility, and he's a prime rebound candidate with every incentive to deliver in a contract year.
Giolito caught some helium last draft season, and unfortunately, the end result was a little deflating for those that paid top dollar to acquire his services. It was far from a bad season, but Giolito took nine losses, served up 27 homers in 178.2 innings and lost nearly seven percentage points off his strikeout rate (27.9 K%). He spent time on the injured list late in the season with a hamstring injury and finished with more walks (five) than strikeouts (four) in his one postseason appearance. His swinging-strike rate remained elite at 15.3% (fifth in MLB), so his strikeout rate seems likely to tick back up in 2022. Giolito will continue to give up the occasional rocket when he leaves a changeup hanging or a fastball center-cut, but he's been one of the top arms in the American League since he reverted back to his old mechanics after the 2018 season. With his supporting cast, and in that division, Giolito should still be considered a fantasy ace.
Giolito was the worst starting pitcher in baseball in 2018 and some projection systems continue to ding him for that season. Track record matters and we can't pretend that season never happened, but Giolito is a unique case in that he is a fundamentally different pitcher than he was then. After the 2018 campaign, Giolito completely overhauled his arm action and delivery, ditched his sinker in favor of more four-seamers and later changed the grip on his slider. The change back to something resembling his high school mechanics paid immediate dividends and fueled his confidence, culminating in Giolito throwing one of the two no-hitters in the majors in 2020. He threw his changeup more frequently than ever in 2020 en route to a top-five strikeout rate among qualified starters (33.7%). James McCann and his framing are gone, but that's not reason enough to think Giolito won't finish among the elite.
Giolito posted the highest ERA among qualified starters in 2018, then reinvented himself, spending the offseason working on a shorter delivery, adding a couple more ticks to his fastball along with more spin to his curve and slider. He also reworked his arsenal, bagging his sinker, the pitch he threw second-most often in 2018, cutting back on his curve while using his fastball and change more. The result was a swinging-strike rate of 15%, compared to 8.3% the previous season. Giolito's control also improved, helping post a 24.3 K-BB%, sixth best among qualified starters. After five starts, Giolito's 5.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP weren't encouraging, then his offseason work manifested, and he went 3.12/1.01 the rest of the way. Giolito finished strong, boding well for owning his new skills. Don't be afraid to invest, especially since he stands to gain with expert framer Yasmani Grandal in town.
It is easy to forget that Giolito was once the 16th overall pick of the 2012 draft, and that was only because he was injured in high school and everyone knew he needed Tommy John surgery. He went on to be considered the top pitching prospect in baseball from 2015-16, but Giolito's pitches have really backed up in recent years. He also has an inconsistent grasp of where those pitches are going (to put it nicely). His 6.13 ERA was by far the worst in the majors for all qualified starters and his 11.6% walk rate also brought up the rear. Fifteen of his 32 starts were of the quality variety, but his bad outings were extreme as he gave up five or more earned runs in 10 outings. Only Mike Leake had a lower strikeout percentage among qualified pitchers. It is important to be aware of a player's pedigree, and while Giolito has it in spades, his stuff and command are simply not befitting of a player we should expect significant improvement from.
The former top prospect posted sparkling numbers in seven starts for the White Sox, bouncing back from a miserable debut with the Nationals, but was it real or an illusion? By most measures, it was the latter; Giolito did miss more bats, but still had a modest 19 percent strikeout rate, and home runs were once again a problem (eight allowed in 45.1 innings). The right-hander showed improvement with his control (2.4 BB/9), but the ERA estimators suggest Giolito was closer to a 4.50 ERA pitcher, with luck playing a significant role in his surface stats (92 percent strand rate, .189 BABIP). Giolito saw another dip in fastball velocity -- his average settled at just over 92 mph -- and his larger body of work at Triple-A left a lot to be desired. His 10.1 percent swinging-strike rate and 62 percent first-pitch strike rate hint at room for strikeout growth, but the team context works against him, and there will likely be more bumps in the road.
Giolito began the year in Double-A and ended it in the majors, but it wasn't exactly a completely successful season for the phenom. He put up strong, but not truly dominant, numbers in the high minors but struggled with his command and control with Washington, resulting in walk and home run rates out of character for Giolito compared to his minor league work. End-of-season fatigue may have been a factor, as his fastball was averaging 93.4 mph in the majors instead of popping the high 90s, but his workload only increased marginally from 2015, so whispers about his health inevitably followed (he's had Tommy John once already). At his best, the right-hander still features that explosive fastball, plus a hammer curve and changeup that could soon surpass the curve as an out pitch, and an offseason of rest might be all he needs to regain his top-shelf stuff and seize hold of a spot in the White Sox's rotation. It's also possible that despite his scouting reports, he takes a while to adjust to the majors -- his numbers last year bear some similarities to Kevin Gausman's the season he broke into the majors as a 22-year-old.
This could be the year when Giolito goes from highly-touted prospect to mainstream ace. Three years removed from Tommy John surgery, the Nationals will set him loose on big league hitters when a need in the rotation arises. He cruised through High-A and Double-A in his age 20/21 season, but the numbers do not do him justice. He had a 1.96 FIP in 69.2 innings at High-A and a 3.18 FIP in 47.1 innings at Double-A. His combination of a plus-plus fastball and a borderline 80-grade curveball is something few pitchers on the planet can boast. He also has the potential for a plus changeup in two or three years, with above average command to boot. In short, this is a future ace. His body is built to log innings and his arsenal is built to embarrass big league hitters, the latter of which should begin sometime this summer.
Now two years removed from his Tommy John surgery, Giolito looked every inch the future ace as he tore through the South Atlantic League, posting outstanding 10.1 K/9 and 3.9 K/BB ratios over a restricted workload of 98 innings. The tall, young right-hander already possesses a high-90s fastball and power curve that will overmatch just about anybody he faces in A-ball, so the Nationals are focused on building up his stamina and having him develop his changeup into a quality offering, something which could be the difference between Giolito being merely good in the majors or being one of the best in the game. The club has no reason to rush him given their loaded major league rotation, so Giolito could easily spend two more seasons or more in the minors before getting the call, but at the moment, all signs point to dynasty owners being amply rewarded down the road for their patience.
The Nationals' 2012 first-round pick made an impressive return from Tommy John surgery, albeit in very limited work, and struck out 39 batters in 36.2 innings between rookie ball and Low-A while flashing the same high octane fastball, power curve and developing changeup that made him a much-ballyhooed high schooler prior to his surgery. The Nats are notoriously conservative with recovering pitchers so expect Giolito to be on a strict innings cap this season, but even in limited work he's more than capable of emerging as one of the game's elite pitching prospects. A violent delivery and spindly frame, the usual recipe for control and injury issues, might be the only thing keeping him from tearing into the majors as soon as 2015.
The 16th overall pick in the draft went under the knife for the least surprising Tommy John surgery ever in August, and the Nationals do not expect to get anything for their $3 million signing bonus until 2014. Giolito could be worth the wait though. Were it not for his elbow trouble he very well might have gone first overall, as high schoolers with prototypical power pitcher builds and fastballs that light up the third digit on the radar gun tend to get scouts drooling. It will be a long road back for Giolito, but if any team can get the most out of him it would be the Nats (see: Strasburg, Stephen and Zimmermann, Jordan).
More Fantasy News
Undergoes internal brace procedure
PBoston Red Sox
Elbow
March 13, 2024
Giolito underwent an internal brace procedure Tuesday to repair the UCL in his right elbow, Chris Cotillo of The Springfield Republican reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Slated for elbow surgery Tuesday
PBoston Red Sox
Elbow
March 11, 2024
Giolito will undergo surgery Tuesday to repair UCL damage in his right elbow, Sean McAdam of The Springfield Republican reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Will get second opinion Monday
PBoston Red Sox
Elbow
March 6, 2024
Red Sox manager Alex Cora said that Giolito will receive a second opinion on his injured right elbow Monday, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Initial tests show partial UCL tear
PBoston Red Sox
Elbow
March 5, 2024
Initial imaging on Giolito's right elbow showed a partial UCL tear and flexor strain, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Bound for IL with elbow injury
PBoston Red Sox
Elbow
March 5, 2024
Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Tuesday that Giolito felt right elbow soreness after his last Grapefruit League appearance and is not expected to be ready Opening Day, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.