Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito

28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Chicago White Sox
2023 Fantasy Outlook
The right-hander established himself as a reliable front-end starter with a 3.47 ERA from 2019 to 2021, but he cratered last season with an ERA that approached 5.00. Giolito lost a tick on his fastball and saw his strikeout rate drop over two percentage points to 25.2 percent, though his HR/9 improved slightly to 1.3. The White Sox's poor defense certainly did him no favors, which is reflected in his 3.66 xFIP. Still, the poor results can't be entirely blamed on the defense, as he also allowed a 39 percent hard-hit rate, which represents a full-season career high. Giolito will turn 29 years old in July and is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility, and he's a prime rebound candidate with every incentive to deliver in a contract year. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a one-year, $7.45 million contract with the White Sox in April of 2022.
Goes seven innings in win
PChicago White Sox
October 4, 2022
Giolito (11-9) allowed two runs on two hits, two walks and two hit batsmen while striking out four over seven innings, earning the win over the Twins on Tuesday.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander threw 61 of 91 pitches for strikes in his final start of the season. He gave up the opening run on a sacrifice fly in the second inning and also yielded an RBI single in the sixth. Giolito finished with three quality starts in his last six outings, and this win snapped his six-start streak without a victory. He posted a 4.90 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 177:61 K:BB through 161.2 innings across 30 starts overall, taking a noticeable step back from the level he displayed over the three previous seasons.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
92
Last 10 Games
92
Last 5 Games
93
How many pitches does Lucas Giolito generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Lucas Giolito generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-18%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-30%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-2%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-5%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .211 810 243 75 153 27 3 21
Since 2020vs Right .256 896 232 66 210 45 4 38
2022vs Left .217 294 87 27 57 8 1 7
2022vs Right .312 404 90 34 114 29 2 17
2021vs Left .221 346 97 29 69 13 2 9
2021vs Right .217 374 104 23 76 14 2 18
2020vs Left .180 170 59 19 27 6 0 5
2020vs Right .190 118 38 9 20 2 0 3
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-27%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-37%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-15%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-29%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 4.68 1.23 207.2 11 16 0 10.2 3.0 1.6
Since 2020Away 3.42 1.21 205.0 15 5 0 10.5 3.1 1.0
2022Home 6.08 1.48 77.0 5 7 0 9.8 2.8 1.6
2022Away 3.83 1.39 84.2 6 2 0 9.9 3.9 1.1
2021Home 3.81 1.10 87.1 4 6 0 10.1 2.8 1.9
2021Away 3.25 1.11 91.1 7 3 0 10.1 2.5 0.9
2020Home 3.95 1.04 43.1 2 3 0 11.2 3.9 0.8
2020Away 2.79 1.03 29.0 2 0 0 13.3 2.8 1.2
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Lucas Giolito compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.90
 
K/9
9.9
 
BB/9
3.4
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
92.7 mph
 
ERA
4.90
 
WHIP
1.44
 
BABIP
.345
 
GB/FB
1.16
 
Left On Base
70.6%
 
Exit Velocity
80.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.5%
 
Spin Rate
1962 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
22.7%
 
Swinging Strike
12.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Giolito caught some helium last draft season, and unfortunately, the end result was a little deflating for those that paid top dollar to acquire his services. It was far from a bad season, but Giolito took nine losses, served up 27 homers in 178.2 innings and lost nearly seven percentage points off his strikeout rate (27.9 K%). He spent time on the injured list late in the season with a hamstring injury and finished with more walks (five) than strikeouts (four) in his one postseason appearance. His swinging-strike rate remained elite at 15.3% (fifth in MLB), so his strikeout rate seems likely to tick back up in 2022. Giolito will continue to give up the occasional rocket when he leaves a changeup hanging or a fastball center-cut, but he's been one of the top arms in the American League since he reverted back to his old mechanics after the 2018 season. With his supporting cast, and in that division, Giolito should still be considered a fantasy ace.
Giolito was the worst starting pitcher in baseball in 2018 and some projection systems continue to ding him for that season. Track record matters and we can't pretend that season never happened, but Giolito is a unique case in that he is a fundamentally different pitcher than he was then. After the 2018 campaign, Giolito completely overhauled his arm action and delivery, ditched his sinker in favor of more four-seamers and later changed the grip on his slider. The change back to something resembling his high school mechanics paid immediate dividends and fueled his confidence, culminating in Giolito throwing one of the two no-hitters in the majors in 2020. He threw his changeup more frequently than ever in 2020 en route to a top-five strikeout rate among qualified starters (33.7%). James McCann and his framing are gone, but that's not reason enough to think Giolito won't finish among the elite.
Giolito posted the highest ERA among qualified starters in 2018, then reinvented himself, spending the offseason working on a shorter delivery, adding a couple more ticks to his fastball along with more spin to his curve and slider. He also reworked his arsenal, bagging his sinker, the pitch he threw second-most often in 2018, cutting back on his curve while using his fastball and change more. The result was a swinging-strike rate of 15%, compared to 8.3% the previous season. Giolito's control also improved, helping post a 24.3 K-BB%, sixth best among qualified starters. After five starts, Giolito's 5.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP weren't encouraging, then his offseason work manifested, and he went 3.12/1.01 the rest of the way. Giolito finished strong, boding well for owning his new skills. Don't be afraid to invest, especially since he stands to gain with expert framer Yasmani Grandal in town.
It is easy to forget that Giolito was once the 16th overall pick of the 2012 draft, and that was only because he was injured in high school and everyone knew he needed Tommy John surgery. He went on to be considered the top pitching prospect in baseball from 2015-16, but Giolito's pitches have really backed up in recent years. He also has an inconsistent grasp of where those pitches are going (to put it nicely). His 6.13 ERA was by far the worst in the majors for all qualified starters and his 11.6% walk rate also brought up the rear. Fifteen of his 32 starts were of the quality variety, but his bad outings were extreme as he gave up five or more earned runs in 10 outings. Only Mike Leake had a lower strikeout percentage among qualified pitchers. It is important to be aware of a player's pedigree, and while Giolito has it in spades, his stuff and command are simply not befitting of a player we should expect significant improvement from.
The former top prospect posted sparkling numbers in seven starts for the White Sox, bouncing back from a miserable debut with the Nationals, but was it real or an illusion? By most measures, it was the latter; Giolito did miss more bats, but still had a modest 19 percent strikeout rate, and home runs were once again a problem (eight allowed in 45.1 innings). The right-hander showed improvement with his control (2.4 BB/9), but the ERA estimators suggest Giolito was closer to a 4.50 ERA pitcher, with luck playing a significant role in his surface stats (92 percent strand rate, .189 BABIP). Giolito saw another dip in fastball velocity -- his average settled at just over 92 mph -- and his larger body of work at Triple-A left a lot to be desired. His 10.1 percent swinging-strike rate and 62 percent first-pitch strike rate hint at room for strikeout growth, but the team context works against him, and there will likely be more bumps in the road.
Giolito began the year in Double-A and ended it in the majors, but it wasn't exactly a completely successful season for the phenom. He put up strong, but not truly dominant, numbers in the high minors but struggled with his command and control with Washington, resulting in walk and home run rates out of character for Giolito compared to his minor league work. End-of-season fatigue may have been a factor, as his fastball was averaging 93.4 mph in the majors instead of popping the high 90s, but his workload only increased marginally from 2015, so whispers about his health inevitably followed (he's had Tommy John once already). At his best, the right-hander still features that explosive fastball, plus a hammer curve and changeup that could soon surpass the curve as an out pitch, and an offseason of rest might be all he needs to regain his top-shelf stuff and seize hold of a spot in the White Sox's rotation. It's also possible that despite his scouting reports, he takes a while to adjust to the majors -- his numbers last year bear some similarities to Kevin Gausman's the season he broke into the majors as a 22-year-old.
This could be the year when Giolito goes from highly-touted prospect to mainstream ace. Three years removed from Tommy John surgery, the Nationals will set him loose on big league hitters when a need in the rotation arises. He cruised through High-A and Double-A in his age 20/21 season, but the numbers do not do him justice. He had a 1.96 FIP in 69.2 innings at High-A and a 3.18 FIP in 47.1 innings at Double-A. His combination of a plus-plus fastball and a borderline 80-grade curveball is something few pitchers on the planet can boast. He also has the potential for a plus changeup in two or three years, with above average command to boot. In short, this is a future ace. His body is built to log innings and his arsenal is built to embarrass big league hitters, the latter of which should begin sometime this summer.
Now two years removed from his Tommy John surgery, Giolito looked every inch the future ace as he tore through the South Atlantic League, posting outstanding 10.1 K/9 and 3.9 K/BB ratios over a restricted workload of 98 innings. The tall, young right-hander already possesses a high-90s fastball and power curve that will overmatch just about anybody he faces in A-ball, so the Nationals are focused on building up his stamina and having him develop his changeup into a quality offering, something which could be the difference between Giolito being merely good in the majors or being one of the best in the game. The club has no reason to rush him given their loaded major league rotation, so Giolito could easily spend two more seasons or more in the minors before getting the call, but at the moment, all signs point to dynasty owners being amply rewarded down the road for their patience.
The Nationals' 2012 first-round pick made an impressive return from Tommy John surgery, albeit in very limited work, and struck out 39 batters in 36.2 innings between rookie ball and Low-A while flashing the same high octane fastball, power curve and developing changeup that made him a much-ballyhooed high schooler prior to his surgery. The Nats are notoriously conservative with recovering pitchers so expect Giolito to be on a strict innings cap this season, but even in limited work he's more than capable of emerging as one of the game's elite pitching prospects. A violent delivery and spindly frame, the usual recipe for control and injury issues, might be the only thing keeping him from tearing into the majors as soon as 2015.
The 16th overall pick in the draft went under the knife for the least surprising Tommy John surgery ever in August, and the Nationals do not expect to get anything for their $3 million signing bonus until 2014. Giolito could be worth the wait though. Were it not for his elbow trouble he very well might have gone first overall, as high schoolers with prototypical power pitcher builds and fastballs that light up the third digit on the radar gun tend to get scouts drooling. It will be a long road back for Giolito, but if any team can get the most out of him it would be the Nats (see: Strasburg, Stephen and Zimmermann, Jordan).
More Fantasy News
Six more punchouts
PChicago White Sox
September 30, 2022
Giolito allowed two earned runs on for hits and three walks while striking out six across five innings Thursday against the Twins. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out nine
PChicago White Sox
September 23, 2022
Giolito allowed three runs on six hits in six innings Friday against the Tigers, striking out nine while walking just one. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Yields one run in short outing
PChicago White Sox
September 16, 2022
Giolito yielded one run on four hits and three walks over 4.2 innings against the Tigers on Friday. He struck out five and did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Fans six in quality start
PChicago White Sox
September 9, 2022
Giolito didn't factor into the decision during Friday's 5-3 win against Oakland, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks with six strikeouts in six innings.
ANALYSIS
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Allows two runs over five innings
PChicago White Sox
September 4, 2022
Giolito (10-9) took the loss Sunday, allowing two runs on six hits and two walks over five innings against the Twins. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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