Top MLB Betting Picks for September 23: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 2-1 ( +0.88 units)
Season 137-144-2 (-11.26 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Tuesday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
As teams fall out of the playoff race, we will start to see inflated moneylines.
Road Favorites - Tigers -165 at Guardians
Home Favorites - Yankees -250 vs White Sox, Mariners -235 vs Rockies, Phillies -215 vs Marlins, Braves -190 vs Nationals
Totals - Astros/Athletics 10.0-10.5, Guardians/Tigers 6.5
Line Movement - Guardians -13, Reds -25, Cardinals -29
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Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Best Bets and Predictions
It all comes down to this, we have huge American League Central and playoff implications involved with this series. A tremendous starting pitching matchup with Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal against Guardians RHP Gavin Williams. When this line opened, I immediately knew where I wanted to go without doing any analysis.
The Guardians are playing the best ball in the majors, and the Tigers are fading. Most of the games in this series have been lower scoring, and we get a live home dog.
The Guardians lead the season series 6-4 and will hold the tiebreaker. Skubal has a 1.84 ERA in his last seven starts, while Williams is at 2.70 ERA in his last seven. Cleveland is 9-1 in the last 10 games, while going 16-4 in the last 20 outings, and Detroit has been the complete opposite going 1-9 in the last 10, and 6-14 in the last 20.
Best Bet: Guardians ML for 1 unit (+135 at BetRivers Sportsbook); Tigers/Guardians UNDER 6.5 runs for 1 unit (-102 at BetMGM)
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bets and Predictions
The Dodgers can seemingly roll out of bed and put up five runs without blinking an eye and Diamomdbacks RHP Brandon Pfaadt is destined for a career 5.00 ERA. Both teams' bullpens are horrible, and Dodgers RHP Shohei Ohtani is probably only going four innings max in this game.
The Dodgers bullpen ranks 23rd in ERA over the last 30 days and the Dbacks are 29th. Surprisingly, there have been a lot of UNDERS in this series (four out of the last five), but I will lean on the macro trends in this game.
Best Bet: Dodgers/Dbacks OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (-122 at BetRivers Sportsbook)
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Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Best Bets and Predictions
Both teams have solid starting pitchers going, and each team has been struggling to score runs consistently after key hitters went down with injuries (Roman Anthony and Bo Bichette). Despite Lucas Giolito's recent struggles, he is still sporting a 2.70 ERA in his last seven starts, while Kevin Gausman is at 2.06.
The Red Sox have averaged 4.3 runs per game over their last 10 games and the Jays have averaged 4.1 in the same timeframe.
Boston's Achilles heel all season is leaving runners on in scoring position, as they lead the majors in strikeouts with RISP. Their inability to convert run scoring opportunities especially against a pitcher like Gausman will make this a low-scoring game.
Best Bet: Red Sox/Blue Jays UNDER 8 runs for 1 unit (-110 at BetMGM)
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Tuesday's MLB Best Bets
- Guardians ML for 1 unit (+135 at BetRivers)
- Tigers/Guardians UNDER 6.5 runs for 1 unit (-102 at BetMGM)
- Dodgers/Dbacks OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (-122 at BetRivers)
- Red Sox/Blue Jays UNDER 8 runs for 1 unit (-110 at BetMGM)
