Randy Arozarena

29-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Seattle Mariners

2024 Stats

AVG

.219

RBI

2025 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

The Home Run Derby curse is mostly pseudo-science, but Arozarena is doing his best to disprove that line of thought. Arozarena was arguably on the best run of his regular season career in 2023 prior to the derby, but was terrible after it and the 2024 season was mostly an extension of the same. Arozarena did get to another 20-20 season and only he and Jose Ramirez has done that each of the past four seasons, but Arozarena is now has 926 post-derby plate appearances and has a .219/.332/.382 triple-slash line with 27 homers and 32 steals. It was long expected the Rays would deal Arozarena in his expensive years, but the move to Seattle was a terrible one for his run production situation and he hit 5 homers in 54 games after the trade. The puzzling part with Arozarena is the increased strikeout rate does not come from him chasing out of the zone but how his in-zone contact rate has declined now for three consecutive seasons. He has become a more disciplined hitter these days, but his struggles against fastballs in 2024 (.221 vs .282 in 2023) were extremely concerning. The volume should once again be there, but at what cost? Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 5'11"

Weight 185

DOB 2/28/1995

Born Havana, Cuba

College None

Drafted 2016 STL

Not starting Saturday

OFSeattle Mariners

September 28, 2024

Arozarena is not in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against the Athletics.

ANALYSIS
Arozarena will get a breather Saturday after going 0-for-9 with six strikeouts over his last two starts. Victor Robles, Julio Rodriguez and Mitch Haniger will man the outfield for the Mariners.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+15%

OPS vs LHP

2024

+17%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+6%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+26%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.847	448	66	21	58	18	.265	.362	.486
Since 2022vs Right	.735	1499	178	42	174	56	.240	.335	.400
2024vs Left	.803	181	25	7	19	5	.232	.359	.444
2024vs Right	.688	467	52	13	41	15	.214	.321	.367
2023vs Left	.828	138	22	8	18	5	.254	.362	.466
2023vs Right	.778	516	73	15	65	17	.254	.364	.413
2022vs Left	.923	129	19	6	21	8	.317	.364	.558
2022vs Right	.734	516	53	14	68	24	.249	.318	.416
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

Even Split

2024

+1%

OPS at Home

2023

+2%

OPS on Road

2022

Even Split

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.759	939	118	32	119	43	.242	.340	.420
Since 2022Away	.762	1008	126	31	113	31	.249	.342	.420
2024Home	.724	313	39	12	33	12	.216	.323	.401
2024Away	.715	335	38	8	27	8	.221	.340	.375
2023Home	.779	319	49	11	42	16	.245	.364	.415
2023Away	.798	335	46	12	41	6	.262	.364	.434
2022Home	.774	307	30	9	44	15	.264	.332	.442
2022Away	.771	338	42	11	45	17	.261	.322	.448
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Stat Review

How does Randy Arozarena compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.43

BB Rate

11.3%

K Rate

26.1%

BABIP

.275

ISO

.169

AVG

.219

OBP

.332

SLG

.388

OPS

.720

wOBA

.324

Exit Velocity

90.4 mph

Hard Hit Rate

34.6%

Barrels/PA

4.9%

Expected BA

.219

Expected SLG

.381

Sprint Speed

22.6 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

44.6%

Line Drive %

14.4%

Fly Ball %

41.0%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Randy Arozarena Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2017

Arozarena's third consecutive 20-20 season may look like more of the same, but there is more under the hood here. While his .254 batting average was the worst of his career and a continued decline in average, he was more accepting of walks than he has ever been in his career and used the OBP resurgence to set a new career high in runs scored. He improved his chase rate on the season, and it would have been even better if not for a massive slump in July as he prepared and then participated in the home run derby which saw him hit .153 with his lowest monthly walk rate of the season. 16 of his 23 homers came before the break and his .279 first half average against his .220 second half average show just how much that slump hurt his overall numbers. Arozarena has seen his fantasy futures rise from risky single-digit round pick to a safe first five round selection in a short time, but this is likely his fantasy peak.

Arozarena turned in his second consecutive 20-20 campaign despite not hitting his first long ball until May 9. He added 12 bags to his 2021 total and cut his strikeout rate by close to four percentage points. Statcast's expected stats paint Arozarena's game in a rather unfavorable light, but keep in mind only Trea Turner, Jose Ramirez and Arozarena have gone 20-20 the past two seasons in Major League Baseball. This is a rare skill set and the outfielder seems to like his round numbers as he briefly talked about the possibility of 20-40 after reaching 20 homers in late September. A lot hinges on Arozarena continuing to play every single day, which generally goes against the Rays' philosophy. He has been the exception to the rule the past couple seasons.

Arozarena is many things, but one thing he never is is boring. He set an impossibly high bar for his fantasy output with his improbable performance in September and October of 2020, yet still was one of just 10 players to post a 20-20 season and even did something only mimicked by Shohei Ohtani in that he hit 20 homers, stole 20 bases and was caught 10 times. By mid-June, Arozarena was 10-for-11 in steals, but then he went 10-for-19 the rest of the way, going over two months without a steal at one point while seven of his 20 steals came in the final three weeks of the season. He is streaky in every way possible, and his expected offensive statistics should raise some eyebrows considering his results well outpaced his expected outcomes. He will punish misplaced fastballs, but the league has also shown an ability to use his aggressiveness against him to get himself out. He's a risky early-round pick.

A hitter who was never a top-100 prospect and just had the best statistical postseason ever is technically still a prospect. He doesn't feel like it anymore, though, and Arozarena is six years older than Wander Franco. Arozarena has notable regular-season splits (279 wRC+, 11.1 K% vs. LHP, 125 wRC+, 31.9 K% vs. RHP), but he logged a 1.408 OPS, eight HR, and a 21.6 K% against RHP in his historic postseason run. Small samples are all we have with him against MLB pitching -- he hit lefties better than righties in the minors -- but it's safe to say he has the power (career .381 ISO) and sprint speed (93rd percentile) to go 20/20 in a full season. There is no doubt Arozarena will play almost every day early in 2021, but the Rays can be ruthless with platoons, so the main risk on this loaded roster would be that he struggles against righties early and starts ceding playing time to left-handed hitters.

Arozarena made his big-league debut at age 24, performing well in a small sample. He spent the bulk of the season in the high minors, hitting .344/.431/.571 with 15 homers and 17 steals in 92 games at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. All told, Arozarena had a 1.174 OPS in 84 PA against southpaws across the three levels (he had a 1.000 OPS in 96 PA vs. LHP in 2018), which was part of the appeal when the platoon-happy Rays acquired him from St. Louis in a multi-player offseason deal. His 12 home runs in 64 games at Triple-A were at least partially the product of the juiced ball at that level, but his sprint speed is in the 96th percentile. As one of their outfielders with minor-league options remaining, Arozarena is a long shot to break camp with the Rays. However, his ability to handle all three outfield spots and crush lefties could lead to opportunities at some point this summer.

Arozarena, who has been labeled as one of the top young Cuban prospects, inked a deal with the Cardinals in July of 2016. The 21-year-old's skill set is highlighted by his advanced plate discipline, plus contact skills and impressive speed on the basepaths. He operates more as a contact hitter, but has the tools to develop into a modest home run hitter in the future. During his last full season in the Cuban Serie Nacional, Arozarena batted .291/.412/.419 with 15 steals (21 attempts). He spent the 2015-2016 season playing in the Mexican Northern League, where he led all players in batting average and stolen bases. It is yet to be seen what position he will play for the Cardinals, as he has seen extended time at second base and the outfield in the past. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him start the season in full-season ball.

More Fantasy News

Productive in Monday's win

OFSeattle Mariners

September 24, 2024

Arozarena went 2-for-5 with an RBI ground-rule double and a run in a win over the Astros on Monday.