This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors: It's hard to truly avoid any one team when only six are in action. I'll therefore use this space to highlight a defense that many (including myself a few hours ago) are underestimating. The Warriors are a defensive juggernaut, but that's widely known. The Suns, on the other hand, have a reputation as being defensively average or worse. That reputation was justified before the All-Star break when they ranked in the bottom half of the league for defensive efficiency, and in the bottom third of the league for opponent three-point shooting. Over their last 10 games, however, the Suns rank fourth in both categories, ahead of most teams with strong defensive reputations, including Rockets and Grizzlies.
Offenses to Use
Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks: Most of the defenses in action Thursday are better than average. The Mavericks and the Cavaliers are the two exceptions. The Rockets play the former. The Rockets have been an impressively stable offense in 2015. The last time the Rockets scored below 90 points was January 2, and since the All-Star break, they've scored below 95 points only once.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: None.
Second game of a back-to-back: Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Stephen Curry, GS (vs PHO), PG, ($9,300): The Suns' defensive improvement gave me pause, but then I thought about the historic season that Curry is having. He's hit 28 threes in his last five games. Over his last 11 games, Curry has made 48 consecutive free throws. As impressed as I am by the Suns' recent statistical improvement on defense, I'm not yet sold on their ability to stop one of the game's best players.
Other suggestions: Pablo Prigioni, HOU (at DAL), PG, ($3,100)
Shooting Guard
Monta Ellis, DAL (vs HOU), SG, ($6,500): For years, Ellis has tormented fantasy players with his night-to-night inconsistency. He's capable of scoring only 11 on a 4-for-22 clunker and following it up with a 38-point, 59-percent-from-the field, light's-out showing against one of the league's better defensive units. That's not a hypothetical - those are his actual lines from back-to-back games last week against the Suns and the Spurs, respectively. Yet Ellis is a player who understands the importance of big games, and Thursday's is certainly an important one for the Mavericks. Additionally, the Rockets defense has slipped from its early-season heights and is not nearly as intimidating as it once was.
Other suggestions: J.R. Smith, CLE (vs MIA), SG, ($5,600)
Small Forward
LeBron James, CLE (vs MIA), SF, ($9,900): I'm a big believer in the psychological component of basketball. I have a hard time believing that any of the 86 players given a salary for Thursday are more motivated than James. Just over two weeks ago, his Cavaliers were handled by his former team, the Heat. James put forth one of his most mediocre games in months, shooting only 42 percent from the field and totalling only two rebounds and four assists, all far below his season and career averages. Now at home, hosting his former team, he seeks revenge, and his salary is a few hundred cheaper to boot.
Other suggestions: Trevor Ariza, HOU (at DAL), SF, ($6,600)
Power Forward
Amar'e Stoudemire, DAL (vs HOU), PF, ($3,300): All of Thursday's best options at power forward have something to make a daily player hesitate. For example, Draymond Green's price is a tad high (and he might not even play), and the Morris Twins face a tough matchup even if Green is out. A predictive analytic I invented, one that projects pay-off based only off of tonight's salaries and a player's recent-games production, expects Thursday's power forwards to produce less per dollar than any position on any night that I can remember. So I'm saving my money here in order to afford Curry and James. Stoudemire has done well enough recently that it doesn't feel like sunk money or a wasted roster spot.
Other suggestions: Marcus Morris, PHO (at GS), PF, ($5,800); Markieff Morris, PHO (at GS), PF, ($6,100)
Center
Tyson Chandler, DAL (vs HOU), C, ($5,300): Thursday's center crop isn't quite as sparse as the power forwards, but it's not exactly flowing with great options. I often turn to Chandler on nights like this, especially since he costs several hundred fewer than is his norm.
Other suggestions: Andrew Bogut, GS (vs PHO), C, ($4,700), Brandan Wright
INJURY REPORT
Out
Donatas Motiejunas (back)
Kostas Papanikolaou (ankle)
Danny Granger (knee)
Alex Len (nose)
Game-Time Decision
Kevin Love (back) is expected to play Thursday.
Iman Shumpert (ankle) will play Thursday.
Draymond Green (lower leg) is a game-time decision, but there are indications that he may not play.
Dwight Howard (knee) is a game-time decision after missing Wednesday's game.
Luol Deng (knee) is a game-time decision.
Udonis Haslem (illness) is questionable.
Brandon Knight (ankle) is doubtful.
Marcus Thornton (toe) is doubtful.
