This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz: The Jazz are crushing the league in defensive metrics since the All-Star break. Their lead on the second-place Warriors in opponent points per possession is equal to the Warrior's lead over the 17th place Bulls. The Jazz are also operating at the slowest pace in the league, again by a considerable margin. The resulting gap in opponent points per game is so giant that I triple-checked my math, since the result seemed impossible to believe. Since the break, the Jazz have allowed only 86.7 points per game, giving them a whopping 8.2 points per game advantage over the second place team. That gap is the same as the gap between second and 24th place. Some other areas where the Jazz are leading the league include: opponent field goal percentage, opponent rebounds, and opponent assists.
Offenses to Use
Minnesota Timberwolves at Toronto Raptors: The Timberwolves are making a late surge to reclaim their earlier title of league's worst defense. They have allowed the most points per possession in the league over their last 10 games and have allowed 100 points in six straight, including twice against the typically low-scoring Jazz.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets
Second game of a back-to-back: Brooklyn Nets, Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio Spurs
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Lorenzo Brown, MIN (vs TOR), PG, ($3,900): Unless you are an avid ACC basketball fan, you probably never heard of Brown before last week when he was moved into the starting lineup for the Timberwolves. Due to injuries and tanking in Minnesota, Brown has played 30 minutes or more in five straight. He's a mediocre 44 percent shooter, but he's averaging nearly eight field goal attempts and eight points per game in his newly-expanded role. His real specialities are assists and steals - the former of which matches up well against the Raptors. His price has not yet adjusted to his production.
John Wall, WAS (vs PHI), PG, ($8,800): For three and a half months, the 76ers were a decent-or-better defensive unit. In the one-and-a-half months since the trade deadline, their defense has been much, much worse. Based on my own observations, I've felt that DraftKings' algorithms have overestimated the difficulty of facing the 76ers during this past month, resulting in some small-but-noticeable discounts. In light of Wall's three-game hot streak, I had expected his Thursday salary to be a couple hundred dollars higher.
Other suggestions: Jeremy Lin*, LAL (vs NO), PG, ($5,500)
* Currently a game-time decision, make sure he is active before using him.
Shooting Guard
Jabari Brown, LAL (va NO), SG, ($3,300): Near-minimum salary players always carry significant risk, but they also have the best chance for a large payoff. Brown has attempted 24 shots over his last two games, and he has played at least 30 minutes in three of his last four. He has no singular skill that stands out, but he also appears able to produce in every category. If this workload keeps up, he should be able to cobble together enough stats for another night of profit.
Other suggestions: Will Barton, DEN (at UTA), SG, ($4,400)
Small Forward
Dante Cunningham, NO (at LAL), SF, ($3,400): Cunningham doesn't do a lot, but most nights his production floor is decent, while his ceiling is a respectable profit. His productivity base is in points and rebounds, which are usually the most stable fantasy categories.
Other suggestions: Cleanthony Early, NY (vs BKN), SF, ($3,300); Trevor Ariza, HOU (vs SAC), SF, ($6,600)
Power Forward
David West, IND (at BOS), PF, ($5,600): Celtics coach Brad Stevens deserves a lot of credit for the work he's done in Boston this season, both in terms of team performance and player development. Unfortunately for Stevens, however, all the coaching in the world can't make a collection of mostly offense-first big men into a great defensive frontcourt. West's price is lower than it was a few weeks ago. That, combined with the favorable matchup, makes West an intriguing low-risk low-reward play.
Other suggestions: Nerlens Noel, PHI (at WAS), PF, ($8,000)
Center
Tiago Splitter, SA (at ORL), C, ($4,500): I'm a big advocate for Nikola Vucevic, but defense is not his specialty. Splitter's offensive game is showing signs of improvement, and with that has come improved fantasy production. Splitter has topped 29 fantasy points in five of his last eight, and two of those three exceptions were against tough matchups for centers.
Other suggestions: Steven Adams, OKC (vs DAL), C, ($6,000)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Derrick Rose (knee)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrest (ankle)
Greg Monroe (knee)
Donatas Motiejunas (back)
Kostas Papanikolaou (ankle)
Paul George (leg)
Jamal Crawford (calf)
Nick Young (knee)
Gorgui Dieng (concussion)
Gary Neal (ankle)
Jrue Holiday (leg)
Jose Calderon (Achilles)
Alexey Shved (ribs)
Serge Ibaka (knee)
Nick Collison (ankle)
Andre Roberson (ankle)
Evan Fournier (hip)
Darren Collison (hip)
Rudy Gay (concussion)
Rodney Hood (concussion)
Game-Time Decision
Doug McDermott (back) is a game-time decision.
Cody Zeller (shoulder) is a game-time decision.
J.J. Barea (ankle) is questionable, but he will be reevaluated before game time and has a chance to play.
Monta Ellis (calf) is a game-time decision.
Darrell Arthur (calf) is a game-time decision.
Danilo Gallinari (rest) is a game-time decision.
Spencer Dinwiddie (ankle) is day-to-day.
Corey Brewer (oblique) is probable.
Dwight Howard (rest) is questionable.
Terrence Jones (ribs) is questionable.
Jason Terry (neck) is probable.
C.J. Miles (ankle) is a game-time decision.
Carlos Boozer (illness) is a game-time decision.
Jeremy Lin (illness) is a game-time decision.
Jared Dudley (back) is expected to play Wednesday.
Anthony Bennett (ankle) is probable.
Kevin Garnett (knee) is doubtful.
Kevin Martin (hamstring) is questionable.
Ricky Rubio (ankle) is doubtful.
Ryan Anderson (knee) is questionable.
Tim Hardaway (wrist) is unlikely to play Wednesday.
Travis Wear (back) is day-to-day.
Dion Waiters (foot) is a game-time decision.
Dewayne Dedmon (ankle) is a game-time decision.
Jerami Grant (illness) is questionable.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (shoulder) is a game-time decision.
Jason Richardson (knee) is expected to play Wednesday.
DeMarcus Cousins (rest) is a game-time decision, though he appears unlikely to play Wednesday.
Kyle Lowry (back) is questionable.
Derrick Favors (back) is a game-time decision.
DeJuan Blair (personal) is a game-time decision. As of the latest update this past weekend, he had not yet returned to the team, and is therefore unlikely to play Wednesday.
Will Bynum (hamstring) has a good chance to play Wednesday.
Kris Humphries (groin) is questionable, but has indicated that he expects to be able to play Wednesday.
Garrett Temple (hamstring) is a game-time decision.
