This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
The tip-off for Monday's eight-game slate is at 7:30 p,m. EDT, but you will need to peel your eyes away from the excellent NCAA matchups and practice vigilance with your lineups tonight. With several teams on a back-to-back, scratches for rest could occur in several spots, and there's value to be had in their pivots.
SLATE OVERVIEW
SAC @ CLE (+4) O/U: 225
OKC @ MIN (-2) O/U: 226.5
CHA @ SAS (-5) O/U: 225.5
IND @ MIL (-5.5) O/U: 228.5
UTA @ CHI (+8.5) O/U: 231
BOS @ MEM (+1) O/U: 221.5
TOR @ HOU (+8.5) O/U: 224.5
ATL @ LAC (-8) O/U: 224.5
(odds provided via FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change)
Teams/Games to Target in BOLD
Teams/ Games to Fade in ITALIC
BACK-TO-BACK TEAMS: Cavaliers, Thunder, Rockets, Raptors, Pacers, Celtics, Bulls
INJURIES
We'll exclude long-term or ongoing injuries in this section unless there is a reason to update optimal pivots.
CLE Andre Drummond (inactive) - OUT
CLE Kevin Love (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
This is more about a potential return than an absence, although Love will probably be on a minutes restriction if he returns at all. You could certainly do worse than Jarrett Allen ($6,700) here, but Larry Nance ($5,600) has seen his stock go up thanks to some pop in recent games and is my preferred budget option from the Cleveland frontcourt.
OKC Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (shoulder) - QUESTIONABLE
OKC Darius Bazley (shoulder) - OUT
OKC Al Horford - POSSIBLE REST
You can't trust Horford anymore, especially as the trade deadline looms. Moses Brown ($4,300) will start at center down the stretch, and even if Horford sticks around, it's time to move away from him for DFS purposes. I think Ty Jerome ($4,300) is the better player, but Theo Maledon ($4,600) will likely take SGA's place in the lineup if he remains out. Isaiah Roby ($4,700) will continue to be the pivot for Bazley.
HOU John Wall and Victor Oladipo - POSSIBLE REST
Houston is a team to keep an eye on because both of these players have been rested in back-to-back games. I think regardless of their status, Kevin Porter ($7,000) should continue to produce, and he'd get a big thumbs-up in your optimizers if either starting guard sits. We've also got Christian Wood ($8,100) back, and he'd be the top dog on this roster if Wall or Oladipo take a seat.
BOS Kemba Walker (rest) - OUT
BOS Tristan Thompson (COVID-19 protocols) - QUESTIONABLE
I'll identify some plum Boston targets later in the article. If Thompson is out, I like Daniel Theis ($4,500) in this spot against Memphis.
UTA Rudy Gobert (hip) - QUESTIONABLE
Gobert will probably play, but Derrick Favors ($3,500) will still see a few more minutes than normal to spell Gobert, and he gets a huge spike if the star center sits out again.
Sometimes I deviate from the usual structure of an article because the information is of paramount importance, and it needs its own paragraph. Before we go through standard endorsements, two teams need to be discussed, and it's imperative that we get involved with both of them.
CHA LaMelo Ball - OUT
Unless you've been living under a rock or busy sweating your bracket, you've heard about Ball already. In the short term, there will be plenty of value here until the roster settles, but there are several players that jump to the forefront right away. Before we get to the obvious targets, I think I will be over the field on Gordon Hayward ($7,000) in this spot. He won't be the first person mentioned by a long shot, but his big-play capability is what will be needed without Ball in the lineup, and I think he will end up being overlooked as a pivot here. The obvious candidate for increased run is Terry Rozier ($5,900). He is a game-time decision tonight due to a hip injury, but he's had a few days to rest. If he plays, he's fine tonight and even better down the line when he's 100 percent. Devonte' Graham ($4,300) is another guy who will likely return to the starting five in the coming weeks, and you can bet this will be the lowest salary you'll see from him moving forward. My dark horse in this spot is Malik Monk ($3,500). He's clawed and scratched for more time, and he'll finally get his wish in this scenario. He has tremendous upside and we've seen the value-beating numbers he can put up when given an opportunity. The punt play is Cody Martin ($3,600). He saw 30 minutes in the last game, and the former standout from the Mountain West could be the big surprise in this spot. You want to get at least one of these low-salaried guards in tonight.
MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo - OUT
A Giannis absence upends the entire Bucks roster. First and foremost, get involved with Khris Middleton ($7,000). He is known to take over when Giannis is out and is an incredible steal at only 7k. I daresay that he is a universal lock in all of my lineups today. Secondly, this is the kind of spot where I can see Jrue Holiday ($6,800) putting in his two cents and giving the Bucks an explosive option in the backcourt. Bobby Portis ($3,700) is another guy who fares well when Giannis is out, although he carries a bit more risk. Basically, I'd endorse any of the Bucks starters tonight because they'll all be cheap enough to target for value.
ELITE PLAYERS
The elite level is kind of... funky tonight? We have no one above 10k, and the options in the 9k range are either in rough matchups or on risky back-to-backs. Since we can find so much backcourt value, it's a great evening to pay up at center. Enter Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700). His minutes have crept up steadily, and monstrous production has followed. He teamed up with Anthony Edwards ($7,700, who I also like) for a huge 41-point game last Thursday, and though he came back to earth against the Suns, you have to like him against the Thunder, who have nothing but youth and inexperience at the center position currently.
Elsewhere in the 9k range, we have Domantas Sabonis ($9,100), who you'd expect to be in a good spot against Milwaukee with Giannis out. I don't think he's essential, but he merits some exposure. Kawhi Leonard ($9,500) won't make the list for me at this salary despite a good spot against the Hawks, but I will happily flock to Paul George ($8,200) at the lower salary point and a much more exploitable position against Atlanta. Finally, we have De'Aaron Fox ($8,900) against Cleveland, and there isn't anything exciting I can say about him. It's certainly a nice spot for the Kings, but he doesn't do enough to merit exposure at this salary point. He'd be a cinch to beat value if he was around $500 lower, but I doubt we'll see him get that inexpensive any time soon.
Also consider: Jayson Tatum, BOS ($8,800) @ MEM
EXPECTED CHALK
Milwaukee and Charlotte. I'll keep hammering that home.
Jaylen Brown, BOS ($7,800) @ MEM
Brown has taken over this offense, and he's in an even better spot with Walker on the bench tonight. While Jayson Tatum will also excel, Brown has been a freak of nature in the past four games. He drilled 10 three-pointers last night against the Magic and is averaging around 50 FP per game over this span. The Brown/Middleton stack should be all over your MME builds.
TORONTO TALENT @ HOU
I group the Toronto starters into one paragraph because it's a spot you'll have to monitor in this back-to-back game. While the Raptors really need to get their best players in and finally win a game, they are prone to sit guys like Kyle Lowry ($7,900) and Pascal Siakam ($7,900). If he plays, I like Norman Powell ($7,500) the best because his roster percentage will be much lower than Fred VanVleet ($8,100), and you also get savings by moving there. OG Anunoby ($5,200) is also intriguing at this salary.
Jonas Valanciunas, MEM ($7,600) @ BOS
If you're looking for a solid floor for your cash lineups, look no further than Valanciunas. He's the unquestioned top target for Memphis currently and has been freakishly consistent. A nightly double-double threat, JV isn't the most exciting add, but he will deliver for you.
Collin Sexton, CLE ($7,300) vs. SAC
Although the Cavs are on a back-to-back, they are spending it at home. Sexton's also been unstoppable over the past three games and erupted for 36 points last night against the Raptors. The Kings aren't struggling as much as the Raptors are, but their defense is arguably worse than Toronto's, so there's no reason to think that Sexton can't put up another excellent total.
VALUE PLAYS
At the risk of beating a dead DFS horse, I'll repeat it - Milwaukee and Charlotte for value. Most of our best budget plays come from the injury sections, but here are some more low-cost plays you shouldn't miss.
Harrison Barnes, SAC ($6,000) @ CLE
Barnes is an excellent cash game play because you know what you're getting and don't expect much more than his reliable floor at a reasonable salary. Overall he's been the epitome of consistency for the Kings. Although he is moderately shot-dependent, he is one of the better rebound sources on the squad and always seems to do enough in the ancillary numbers to produce a good FP total.
Caris LeVert, IND ($5,600) @ MIL
LeVert has yet to produce that true breakout game we are all looking for, but he's doing enough at this salary that he won't hurt us too much if he doesn't hit his ceiling. It's also the best possible moment to play the Bucks as they'll be scrambling to replace Giannis' two-way production.
Ivica Zubac, LAC ($4,500) vs. ATL
Zubac is finally seeing enough minutes to be relevant, and I suspect that he'll play a part in what should be an easy victory for the Clippers. His salary is most attractive because he doesn't have to do much to beat value and could easily beat 6x value if given enough opportunities. To be honest, I will be so heavy on Towns that most other centers won't play a part in my builds, but Zubac's a reasonable add if you elect to go another way.
Tomas Satoransky, CHI ($4,200) vs. UTA
Anyone with Coby White shares sure isn't happy, but Satoransky seems to be more than just a passing fad, which is what most people thought was the case when White was benched last week. Satoransky's certainly playing well enough to beat value at this salary, as he's regularly producing in the 30-FP range. A re-insertion of White is always possible, but the Bulls have a fighting chance to make the playoffs, and they'll keep using what works.
There is ample value on this slate to allow for elite options, and it's important to not OVERLOAD on value when there is so much available. Although it goes without saying, good players are good players, and make sure you opt for value with the intention of making room for a more expensive player that you really want.
