Opening Night in the NBA is less than a month away, so it's officially time for fantasy managers to hone in on draft prep. Outside of formulating preseason fantasy basketball rankings, a major piece of that process is analyzing the risk/rewards profile for big-name players who can either make – or break – your team's season.
Identifying players who may be going too high in drafts is an excellent way to manufacture value, especially in the first half of drafts. Conversely, finding players who are typically underdrafted is often the key to landing a sleeper or two flying under the radar.
With the 2023-24 NBA season quickly approaching, let's dive into a handful of players to consider passing on at current fantasy basketball ADP figures, as well some names managers should be willing to jump ADP in order to land.
Underdrafted: Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves
I know, I know, everyone is just lining up around the block to draft Rudy Gobert this season. There's no other way to put it: 2022-23 was a massive disappointment for Gobert, who struggled to adjust to a new franchise and saw his points, rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage figures tumble year-over-year. The big man blocking only 1.4 shots per game was the biggest shocker, but I view last season as a worst-case-scenario baseline for the 31-year-old. Even if you're not a Gobert believer, it's difficult to imagine 2023-24 playing out any worse.
Gobert's current composite ADP is 68.0 – exactly where he
Opening Night in the NBA is less than a month away, so it's officially time for fantasy managers to hone in on draft prep. Outside of formulating preseason fantasy basketball rankings, a major piece of that process is analyzing the risk/rewards profile for big-name players who can either make – or break – your team's season.
Identifying players who may be going too high in drafts is an excellent way to manufacture value, especially in the first half of drafts. Conversely, finding players who are typically underdrafted is often the key to landing a sleeper or two flying under the radar.
With the 2023-24 NBA season quickly approaching, let's dive into a handful of players to consider passing on at current fantasy basketball ADP figures, as well some names managers should be willing to jump ADP in order to land.
Underdrafted: Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves
I know, I know, everyone is just lining up around the block to draft Rudy Gobert this season. There's no other way to put it: 2022-23 was a massive disappointment for Gobert, who struggled to adjust to a new franchise and saw his points, rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage figures tumble year-over-year. The big man blocking only 1.4 shots per game was the biggest shocker, but I view last season as a worst-case-scenario baseline for the 31-year-old. Even if you're not a Gobert believer, it's difficult to imagine 2023-24 playing out any worse.
Gobert's current composite ADP is 68.0 – exactly where he finished in total value a season ago. On some host sites, he's going as low as the mid-80s. With even marginally better blocks and rebounds numbers – prior to last season, Gobert had never dipped below 2.0 BPG since becoming a starter – the Frenchman should have a great chance to re-establish himself as a top-50, or even top-40, fantasy asset. Plus, he's about as safe as it gets, from a health perspective, when it comes to veteran big men.
Overdrafted: Kristaps Porzingis, Celtics
After struggling with injuries and fit over the last few years, Porzinigis bounced back in a major way last season, finishing as a top-20 fantasy asset behind career-best numbers in points per game and shooting efficiency. He also appeared in 65 games – his most in any season since 2016-17. Porzingis' composite ADP of 42.2 isn't outrageous by any means, but we need to take into account a major change of scenery, as well as Porzingis' dubious health history.
In Boston, Porzingis will operate as the Celtics' clear third option behind Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown, whereas in Washington a year ago, he was essentially the No. 1 option for half of the season with Bradley Beal missing significant time. With that in mind, his scoring will almost certainly decline, though he should be able to maintain his efficiency and defensive numbers (2.5 blocks/steals per game).
Injuries are the far bigger concern, however. Since tearing his ACL as a member of the Knicks in 2017-18, the 7-foot-3 Porzingis has mostly been a 45-to-55-game player. Of course, the hope is that last season is a harbinger of things to come, but banking on Porzingis to play more than 60 games has been a losing bet in four of the last five seasons. Consider passing on Porzingis at his ADP, but be prepared to pounce if he falls into the 50s in your draft.
Overdrafted: Kevin Durant, Nets
Let me be very clear: When healthy, Kevin Durant is still one of the 5-to-7 best players in fantasy basketball. In terms of per-game value, Durant has been a top-10 player in every season since 2008-09, but injuries have become a significant part of the narrative for the two-time champ. Since tearing his Achilles in the 2019 Finals (costing him the entire 2019-20 campaign) Durant has played in just 35, 55 and 47 games, respectively, over the last three seasons. That's a concerning trend for the 35-year-old, who appeared in only eight games for the Suns a season ago after coming over via trade.
The appeal with Durant is understandable. If he were to play even 65 or 70 games, he's a virtual lock to be a top-10 fantasy asset. But considering the injury history, and the likelihood that Phoenix builds in some rest for its best player, taking Durant at his current price (11.0 composite ADP) – which averages as high as 7.0 in some leagues – is too risky for my taste. Over the last three seasons, Durant has an average fantasy rank of 42.6 when factoring in games played.
Underdrafted: Nic Claxton, Nets
For the most part, Claxton flew under the radar in Brooklyn last season, but fantasy managers took notice of the significant jump in his numbers across the board. Across 76 appearances, Claxton posted 12.6 points on 70.5 percent shooting to go with 9.2 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game, earning a smattering of Defensive Player of the Year votes in the process. The 24-year-old will likely never be much of an offensive force, but his rebounding and shot-blocking alone make him a top-50 fantasy asset.
Claxton ranked second in total blocks and 11th in total rebounds last season en route to finishing as the 29th-best fantasy asset in roto leagues (40th in per-game value). Another 76-game season may be the best-case scenario, but even if Claxton plays closer to 70 games, he should be able to easily outpace his 70.1 composite ADP.
Underdrafted: Jerami Grant, Trail Blazers
Grant is one of my favorite under-the-radar players for 2023-24. Of course, Portland still needs to sort out the Damian Lillard situation, but at some point a trade feels inevitable. With Portland likely moving into a rebuild, Grant should be well-positioned to function as a top-two option, offensively, alongside Anfernee Simons and Portland's stable of young guards.
We've already seen Grant thrive in a similar role with the Pistons earlier in his career when he posted 22.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.1 blocks and 2.1 threes per game in 2020-21. Even a year ago, Grant put up strong numbers across the board – including a career-best 2.3 threes per game – and finished as the 84th-ranked fantasy player, despite being held out of the Blazers' final 14 games. With a more-defined role on a franchise with a clear direction, I like Grant's chance to outplay his 79.2 ADP.
Overdrafted: Ja Morant, Grizzlies
Perhaps the single most electrifying player in the NBA, Morant's fantasy value has never truly lined up with his real-life impact. On a per-game basis, Morant has only finished as a top-50 fantasy player one time (2021-22), and he barely cracked the top 50 a year ago. The appeal with Morant is undeniable: he's a counting stat machine who upped his assists production to a career-high 8.1 APG a year ago. But he's also a poor three-point shooter (30.7% 3PT) and a net-negative at the free throw line (74.8% FT on 8.1 FTA/G last season).
Beyond that, there's the massive elephant in the room: Morant is suspended for the first 25 games of the season, effectively ruling him out until Christmas. For a player who's dealt with injuries and off-court issues in recent years, lopping off 30 percent of his season right off the bat means he'll be walking a thin line the rest of the way. Considering the absolute best-case scenario is Morant playing 57 games, it'll be difficult for him to meet his 66.3 composite ADP. A year ago, Morant played in 61 games and finished 69th in total fantasy value in roto leagues.
Underdrafted: Tyus Jones, Wizards
After spending the last four years in Memphis as one of the best backup point guards in the NBA, all signs point to Jones finally getting his chance to run the show for the rebuilding Wizards. The change in role comes with a notable boost in ADP (87.9), but Jones is still going after pick 100 on multiple host sites.
Granted, Jones has never finished as a top-100 player, but he's also never averaged more than last season's 24.3 minutes per game – a bar he should easily clear in 2023-24. In his 22 starts for Memphis a year ago, Jones averaged 16.4 points, 8.1 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 2.0 threes (41.5% 3Pt) in 33.1 minutes.
