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Slate Overview
MIA at DEN: The Nuggets won the season series 2-0 against the Heat, winning one game at home (December 30th, 2022) and one on the road (February 13, 2023).
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Injuries to Monitor
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MIA - Tyler Herro (hand): OUT
Max Strus and Caleb Martin each should continue to see more responsibility in Herro's absence.
Elite Players
Guards
Jamal Murray, Nuggets 
($16,200) vs. Heat
Murray has delivered a stellar effort through 15 games in the postseason, averaging 27.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.7 steals per outing. He logged back-to-back 60 DK-point performances in the conference finals and went over 45 on 10 occasions through the first three rounds. Murray should find a chance to get his shot going from long range, as the Heat are giving up 12.3 three-pointers per game in the playoffs.
Caleb Martin, Heat 
($11,100) at Nuggets
Martin stepped up in a huge way to help boost the Heat during their trip to the Finals. He is coming off back-to-back starts where he tallied at least 48 DK points, and he is averaging 14.1 points, 5.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists through the postseason. Martin's hustle and effort on both ends of the floor have helped him bolster his DK totals throughout the playoffs, as he only failed to record a steal or a block in five of 18 appearances.
Forwards/Centers
Michael Porter, Nuggets ($11,400) vs. Heat
Porter has provided an excellent supporting effort through the postseason, averaging 14.6 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.8 assists over 15 games. He also tallied six double-doubles and surpassed 30 DK points eight times, with a high of 45.3 in the playoffs. Porter averaged 13.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.0 steals over two meetings with the Nuggets this season.
Jimmy Butler, Heat ($20,100) at Nuggets
Butler put the Heat on his back through the first three rounds of the playoffs, averaging 28.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 2.1 steals over 17 games played. He is coming off back-to-back 50-DK point outings and surpassed 50 in 10 games through the postseason, with a high of 73.3 in Game 4 of the first round. Butler averaged 20.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 2.5 steals over two regular-season encounters with the Nuggets.
Bam Adebayo, Heat ($13,800) at Nuggets
Adebayo is averaging 16.8 points, 9.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.0 steals over 18 games in the postseason. He only reached 40 DK points on six occasions, with a high of 57.8 in Game 2 of the conference finals, but he provides a formidable presence on the defensive end and does a good job distributing the ball to produce an effective all-around contribution. Adebayo averaged 20.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 3.0 steals and 1.5 blocks through two meetings with the Nuggets this season.
Expected Chalk
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets ($21,000) vs. Heat
Jokic has been fantastic through the postseason, averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, 10.3 assists and 1.1 steals through 15 outings. He surpassed 70 DK points on 10 occasions, including a high of 88.8 in Game 1 of the conference finals. Jokic also showed success against the Heat during their two regular-season meetings, as he averaged 23.0 points, 12.0 rebounds and 10.0 assists per game. The big man should find a few ways to help pad his stats against the Heat, as they are giving up an average of 23.8 free throws and 10.8 offensive rebounds per game through the playoffs.
Value Picks
Gabe Vincent, Heat ($8,700) at Nuggets
Vincent has done a great job running the point all season and has started each of the 17 playoff games in which he participated. He is averaging 13.1 points, 1.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists per outing, including a high of 42 DK points in Game 3 of the conference finals.
Bruce Brown, Nuggets ($9,300) vs. Heat
Brown has been an excellent X-factor off the bench throughout the postseason, averaging 12.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.1 steals across 15 outings. He surpassed 23 DK points eight times during that stretch, including a high of 35.3 in Game 5 of the second round.
Max Strus, Heat ($7,200) at Nuggets
Strus has done a great job helping fill in for the absence of Tyler Herro (hand), averaging 10.3 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.0 assists through 18 games in the postseason. He logged a high of 31.5 DK points in Game 4 of the second round and tallied at least 15 in all but three playoff outings.
Aaron Gordon, Nuggets ($9,900) vs. Heat
Gordon closed the previous round with a bang as he totaled 42.5 DK points with 22 points, six rebounds, five assists and two blocks in 41 minutes of action to help secure a ticket to the Finals. He is averaging 13.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists through 15 games in the postseason, including 11 with at least 23 DK points.
Jeff Green, Nuggets ($3,300) vs. Heat
Green has seen minutes in all 15 games in the postseason, averaging 3.9 points and 1.9 rebounds in 18.7 minutes per outing. He finished with double-digit DK totals in six of the 15 appearances, with a high of 16 in Game 3 of the first round.
