This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
If you followed my playoff endorsements over the weekend for DraftKings and FanDuel, you doubled up both times. I'll try to keep the streak going for Monday's two-game set. We'll get to see the first glimpse of some interesting second-round matchups, and the action begins in Boston at 7:00 p.m. ET.
SLATE OVERVIEW
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I've said that you can often throw Vegas game totals out the window come playoff time, but the differential here is significant. Boston was excellent against the Knicks this season, and their defense was able to neutralize at least one major playmaker in every contest. The nightcap should be more electric, and the total broke some ties for me as I constructed Monday's ideal lineup.
INJURIES
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ELITE PLAYERS
Five-figure salaries are back on the report with Denver and Oklahoma City in play. Nikola Jokic ($11,600) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,400) are the headliners, so let's examine their viability as DFS selections tonight. The prolific producers will square off and likely produce monster numbers, and most of the public will try to figure out a path where using both players is possible. You are left with an average of $5,429 per slot if you begin your build with the duo, and while budget pivots can offset the number somewhat, we need to look at position scarcity and recent history as justifications for moving off of either player.
Unsurprisingly, Jokic has two triple-doubles and two double-doubles over four games against the Thunder, with the teams splitting the games, 2-2. The center's numbers were obviously excellent, although he broke the 30-point threshold only once in the series. Conversely, only one of SGA's totals against the Nuggets could truly be considered an elite line, which came back in early March with a 40/8/5 result. I think it's much easier to manage the guard position tonight, so for my money, Jokic is the logical option. You'll begin with an average of $6,050 per slot, which I think we can manage if we implement smart value. Selecting Jokic will take Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,500) off our list. The three remaining players at the elite level will be more difficult to justify after Jokic, but getting Thunder production from Jalen Williams ($8,100) is probably the stronger play. Boston did a decent job of keeping Jalen Brunson in check in the regular season, and although Jayson Tatum ($9,800) was solid against the Knicks in every game, he's a borderline add due to the inflated price tag.
EXPECTED CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS
Chet Holmgren, OKC ($7,500) vs. DEN
I think we can get away with using Holmgren, and if things get tight, I would consider pivoting off of Williams and giving him top Thunder billing in my build. The forward positions will be tough calls and may require more salary relief than Holmgren can give, but he's had some excellent totals in the playoffs and will be a difficult fade.
Derrick White, BOS ($7,000) vs. NYK
I looked at Jamal Murray ($7,500) first, and although I certainly don't mind him, his success against the Thunder in the regular season left a little to be desired. White was consistent in his three matchups against the Knicks, and his salary is just about where it needs to be. Those who can find a way to access Tatum will have him as the most expensive Boston add. Barring him, I will bypass Jaylen Brown and settle on White.
Josh Hart, NYK ($7,300) @ BOS
Hart's numbers against Boston were higher than OG Anunoby's results in the regular season, so he'll be my first Knick to endorse for the evening. We'll likely see him slotted alongside Williams at one of our wing positions, and although his lines can be somewhat volatile, I'm going to trust his production tonight.
Russell Westbrook, DEN ($5,200) @ OKC
Since leaving the Thunder many moons ago, Westbrook has usually excelled against his former team. Denver's utilization of the former MVP is a key to their success, and although Christian Braun's ($5,700) decent play has cut into his court time, the Nuggets usually prevail when he has a solid total. I elected to fade Murray, so we avoid any negative correlation for Westbrook if we use him at either guard position.
Michael Porter, DEN ($5,300) @ OKC
Thanks to some decent numbers against the Thunder during the regular season, I'm confident in using Porter and his low salary. It's a close call over Aaron Gordon ($5,900), and while I will set aside some usage for his teammate, the extra $600 in savings helps out as we continue to construct our lineup. I wouldn't rule out a stack if you can fit both of them, although Jokic's addition with Gordon correlates negatively.
Luguentz Dort, OKC ($4,200) vs. DEN
Dort's numbers were so-so against Memphis, but his SG eligibility and usual minute allotment are persuasive reasons to use him at a position that requires value. His discounted salary gives our remaining average a nice boost as we finish our build.
Isaiah Joe, OKC ($3,800) vs. DEN
I was left with one difficult decision with my remaining salary, and I blame an increase in Chet Holmgren as the reason I had to punt with Joe. Making concessions elsewhere could have brought me up to better options like Payton Pritchard or Jrue Holiday, but I still believe using someone like Jokic is the best way to go, and we have to take our medicine after spending up. I could make an argument for Miles McBride ($3,700) here instead, especially if you believe in a Boston blowout.
ALTERNATE BUILDS
Fading Jokic and opting for Towns releases $3,100, and it would allow you to upgrade significantly at SG. You could get Jamal Murray involved, and Aaron Gordon would also be an easier add. Would their addition total enough to exceed the differential between Jokic and Towns? The data suggests that it's possible for Towns to get close to Jokic's numbers, but two of his efforts against Boston were clunkers. It's also important to note that Boston swept the Knicks in the regular season, and I think Jokic sets up better against Isaiah Hartenstein. Still, the fade is something to consider if Jokic isn't to your liking.
