This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
This series is getting sketchy! No team in NBA history has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit, but Boston is on the brink. They're already halfway there, and a road win here would really put the pressure on Miami. The Celtics would be a monster favorite in a Game 7 at home, so this is a must-win game for the Heat. We already know the winner will face the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals, and we can't wait to talk about the biggest game of the season!
Guards
Marcus Smart, BOS at MIA ($20)
We've been going back to the Smart train throughout this postseason, and it's easy to understand why. The 2021-22 Defensive Player of the Year is averaging over 30 Yahoo points per game in this playoff run. What makes him really attractive is that this is an elimination game, guaranteeing Smart 40 minutes of play. Across his last 12 elimination games, Smart is averaging 39 Y! points per game! That's awesome since he's scored at least 29 fantasy points in four of his last five outings, dropping 43 Y! points in Game 5.
Derrick White, BOS at MIA ($17)
White was reinserted into the Celtics starting lineup, and it's done wonders for his fantasy value. He's scored 32 and 34 Yahoo points in his two most recent outings, which is no surprise since he's a lock for 30-35 minutes and double-digit shots in this expanded role. That's what we saw from him in the final months of the regular season, posting a 30-point average across his last 51 games. He should never be below $20 with that sort of production, and it's clear Yahoo is slow to adjust to his newfound role.
Guard to Avoid
Kyle Lowry, MIA vs. BOS ($13)
Lowry has been a consummate professional throughout his career, but he's looked washed in this series. The former All-Star has been ailing all season, and he continues to grab at numerous injuries throughout this series. It really shows in his form, scoring 17 combined points over the last four games, despite seeing an increased role with Tyler Herro and Gabe Vincent out. They're expected to get Vincent back here, and it should send Lowry back to his 20-minute bench role.
Forwards
Jayson Tatum, BOS at MIA ($45)
There are two superstars that are impossible to fade on this single-game slate, and they're both forwards. The first is Tatum, scoring at least 47 Yahoo points in 13 of his last 17 games. He's also averaging 52 Y! points per game in that span, which is right on par with his 50-point average during the regular season. Something needs to be said about this stud in elimination games, as he's averaging 64 fantasy points per game in his three elimination games this year. He's also averaging over 60 Y! points per game in his 12 elimination games since 2020, taking nearly 25 shots while playing over 40 minutes a night.
Jimmy Butler, MIA vs. BOS ($43)
Playoff Jimmy just guaranteed a Game 6 win, and Miami is going to need a monster night from Butler to accomplish that goal. This superstar has been carrying his team throughout the playoffs, averaging 28.5 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.0 steals since April 1. This isn't quite an elimination game for JB, but it may as well be. In his five elimination games since 2020, JB is averaging 28.2 points, 9.4 rebounds, 7.6 assists and 2.0 steals per game. It's tough to pick which of these forwards to stick into your megastar slot, but Butler has to be the best bet with Miami's back against the wall.
Forward to Avoid
Kevin Love, MIA vs. BOS ($10)
You might see that Love is starting and want to ride him as a value play, but this is not the same guy we used to love. This former All-Star is a shell of himself, playing 16 or fewer minutes in seven straight outings. It's hard to understand why he's even starting, especially since he's scored fewer than 15 Yahoo points in all of those. We know that Love is cheap but don't fall for the trap!
Center
Bam Adebayo, MIA vs. BOS ($26)
Bam has struggled the last three games of this series, but Miami needs him to bounce back here. He's actually had his way with the Celtics all season, scoring at least 37 Yahoo points in their first six meetings. Despite his recent struggles, Bam is still averaging 38 Y! points per game in their nine total matchups. That's unbelievable from a sub-$30 player, but it's not too surprising since Adebayo averaged 39 fantasy points per game during the regular season.
Center to Avoid
Robert Williams, BOS at MIA ($12)
Williams was starting at center in the first few games of this series, but his relegation to the bench directly correlates with the Celtics playing better basketball. It's certainly not Rob-Will's fault, but there's no chance he returns to the starting lineup with how they've looked the last two games. That demotion has led to Williams averaging 15 Y! points per game across 18 minutes a night over the last three outings. That won't get it done, even though Williams is one of the best per-minute producers around.
