College Football Picks: Texas Tech vs BYU Best Bets
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It's Conference Championship Week across college football. This brings with it lots of implications for the landscape of the College Football Playoff. BYU currently sits on the edge of the cut, ranked at #11 in the latest CFP rankings. A win for BYU and they are automatically in.
Meanwhile, it seems as though Texas Tech is firmly in regardless of Saturday's outcome. These two teams faced off four weeks ago, with Texas Tech taking home a 29-7 victory in Lubbock. Saturday's Big-12 Conference Championship Game will bring these two to Arlington, Texas, for likely one final faceoff this year in AT&T Stadium.
Texas Tech vs BYU Betting Odds for the Big 12 Conference Championship Game
Spread: Texas Tech -12.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); BYU +12.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Texas Tech -500 (FanDuel Sportsbook); BYU +400 (DraftKings Sportsbook);
Total: Over 49.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 49.5 (BetMGM)
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Texas Tech vs BYU Betting Picks for the Big 12 Conference Championship Game
Texas Tech is led by the best defense in the country, according to the analytics. The Red Raiders rank first in defensive Expected Point Added according to CFB-Graphs. With one of the best defensive lines in the country and a middle linebacker in Jacob Rodriguez who is top-5 in Heisman odds, Texas Tech has also put together the best run defense in the country. The Red Raiders are allowing 68.9 yards per game on the ground this season, which is 10.4 yards fewer than any other defense in the country.
The Red Raiders' offense lags behind its defense but is still a strong unit. Texas Tech is first in the Big 12 in yards per game and points per game, averaging 498.2 yards and 43.2 points. Texas Tech has also been doing this with quarterback Behren Morton battling a leg injury. Morton went out with a lower leg injury on October 11th and sat out for three weeks. Since then, Morton has been practicing with a boot on his foot up until this week. With Morton now fully healthy, the Texas Tech offense may have more in the tank.
BYU, throughout the seaso,n has been extremely physical and well disciplined. They aren't the most talented team in the country, but they don't make mistakes, and they play inspired football. BYU's success has been centered around a physical defense and tough rushing attack. BYU ranks third in the Big 12 in total defense, allowing 324.6 yards per game, and third in the Big 12 in rushing defense, allowing 119 yards per game.
The Cougars' offense relies heavily on the second-ranked rushing attack in the Big 12 which averages 194.5 yards per game. Their rushing attack is centered around Big 12's leading rusher LJ Martin, and quarterback Bear Bachmeier, both of whom have contributed 11 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Texas Tech vs BYU Expert Pick: Texas Tech -12.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Texas Tech vs BYU Predictions for the Big 12 Conference Championship Game
BYU has been exceptional throughout the season; however, this matchup is one that does not favor the Cougars well. BYU has had success all year by being efficient, staying ahead of the chains with their rushing attack and passing as needed. For most of the season, BYU has not had to rely on its passing game to win games. As was seen in the first matchup between these two teams, Texas Tech shut down the BYU rushing attack, forcing them to pass the ball to win and the Cougars offense was unable to muster up much of anything. With Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton being fully healthy for this game, things might just be even worse for BYU as he was clearly not 100% during the first meeting.
Texas Tech 35, BYU 10
Texas Tech vs BYU Player Props for Saturday, December 6th
Caleb Douglas over 56.5 Receiving Yards
Over the past five games, Douglas has led the Cougars in receiving four times having only gone for less than 80 yards once. The one time was against BYU however, I would expect Douglas to stay on his typical pace in this one going over the 56.5 yard total.
LJ Martin Under 70.5 Rushing Yards
In the previous meeting between these two teams, Martin rushed for just 35 yards. With the Texas Tech's stout defensive front and offense being fully healthy, BYU may be forced into lots of passing situations, much like they were in the last meeting. I wouldn't expect Martin to get the necessary carry splits to be able to hit this number.
