This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Any doubts about the changing of the guard in college football were laid to rest last week as the unthinkable happened when the rankings were released on Tuesday ... a one-loss team from a power conference jumped an undefeated team.
The teams involved are Oregon and Florida State and make no mistake, this would have never happened in the polls of years past.
Although there are still many games left to be played and undoubtedly several changes in the rankings, the committee again sent a clear signal that the eyes matter more than the paper. In other words, you not only have to win the game, but you have to look impressive as well. Don't mistake that for margin of victory, though, because it's not the same thing. What the committee is factoring in here is game control.
People often confuse the two, but there is a big difference. Margin of victory can be inflated by piling on at the end of the game. With game control, there comes a point in each game where a team can no longer attain it. For example, if a team comes out flat and trails at the half, only to turn it on late in the fourth quarter, well that team hardly had much control of the game. In that situation, one bad break could have flipped the game into the hands of the opposition.
What the committee is saying is, if you consistently rely on late-game heroics to win, then you aren't
Any doubts about the changing of the guard in college football were laid to rest last week as the unthinkable happened when the rankings were released on Tuesday ... a one-loss team from a power conference jumped an undefeated team.
The teams involved are Oregon and Florida State and make no mistake, this would have never happened in the polls of years past.
Although there are still many games left to be played and undoubtedly several changes in the rankings, the committee again sent a clear signal that the eyes matter more than the paper. In other words, you not only have to win the game, but you have to look impressive as well. Don't mistake that for margin of victory, though, because it's not the same thing. What the committee is factoring in here is game control.
People often confuse the two, but there is a big difference. Margin of victory can be inflated by piling on at the end of the game. With game control, there comes a point in each game where a team can no longer attain it. For example, if a team comes out flat and trails at the half, only to turn it on late in the fourth quarter, well that team hardly had much control of the game. In that situation, one bad break could have flipped the game into the hands of the opposition.
What the committee is saying is, if you consistently rely on late-game heroics to win, then you aren't as good as your record would indicate. I, for one, agree. I, along with the committee apparently, want teams in this playoff that take care of business, that leave nothing to chance. There aren't exactly a lot of teams out there playing in such a fashion, but there are a few. Florida State is not one of those teams at the moment as it's left too many games to chance this season, and if the Seminoles don't get their act together, they may be left on the outside looking in.
Another one of those weird weeks were my lower-end picks did well, but the high-end picks fell flat. I was fortunate to get a push from the Northwestern game as the Cats decided to go for two at the end of the game. Of course, I could have won that game had they not called another predictable roll-out. How far have both of those teams fallen, by the way?
As always, I'll tweet any insights I come up with post-article each week. You can follow me at @gregvara
Cream of the Crop (Week: 0-3-1; Season: 10-22-1)
Saturday
Pittsburgh at North Carolina: Only one thing scares me about the total here - it's way too low. I don't get it. The Tar Heels are the perfect over team as their offense is strong and their defense is non-existent. As for the Panthers, they've spent the past couple weeks getting caught up in some wild shoot-outs. Expect another one of those this week.
Total: Over 67
Ohio State at Minnesota: A very impressive win for the Gophers last week against Iowa, but again, look at the competition. The Gophers can beat up on lesser teams and occasionally take down a team with comparable talent, but against higher-end teams, they are helpless. Ohio State is on a mission to impress the committee and that means the Buckeyes will be putting up as many points as possible.
Side: Ohio State -12.5
Total: Over 56
Army at Western Kentucky: In case you haven't heard yet, WKU is horrendous on defense and pretty darn good on offense. It really doesn't matter the competition either. There are going to be plenty of points scored in this game.
Total: Over 71
Clemson at Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets offense is humming, and while it is in for the tough test this week, I see no reason why the offense will completely stall. Clemson's offense is strong as well and should be able to keep up in this one.
Total: Over 60.5
Best of the Rest (Week 1-3; Season: 16-15-1)
Thursday
California at USC: I mentioned a few weeks ago that USC is not afraid to get into shootouts this year, and I think the Trojans have another one staring them in the face this week. California has scored less than 34 points just once this year, and USC is no slouch on offense, either.
Total: Over 72
Saturday
Temple at Penn State: I'm breaking a cardinal rule, but I just can't imagine either of these teams putting up more than 20 points in this game. Temple has proven to be fairly stout on defense and Penn State simply has no offense. First one to 14 wins this game.
Total: Under 39
Indiana at Rutgers: Indiana has fallen so far that it was only able to put up seven points against lowly Penn State last week. Rutgers is no powerhouse, but the Hoosiers are on the road and have little to no chance to stay in any game on the away from home.
Side: Rutgers -7.5
Florida State at Miami: If you've been with me this season, you know that I'm not a huge fan of the Seminoles, but I think this week's rankings will serve as a wake-up call, and they'll finally look the part of a championship team.
Side: FSU -1.5
Northwestern at Notre Dame: Perhaps I'm leaning too much on last week's game, but Northwestern was completely inept on offense against a completely beatable Michigan defense. Notre Dame, on the other hand, is coming off a tough loss, but even in the loss the Fighting Irish showed plenty of fight.
Side: Notre Dame -17
PASSing Thoughts (Week: 3-1; Season: 28-23)
Thursday
East Carolina at Cincinnati: East Carolina could not have looked worse two weeks ago at Temple, but the bye week came at the right time. Cincinnati appears to have fixed its defensive issues, but it only appears that way because of the quality, or lack thereof of the competition.
Side: East Carolina -3
Saturday
Virginia Tech at Duke: Duke really has no reason to lose this game. The Blue Devils are on a roll, and Virginia Tech ran up the white flag weeks ago.
Side: Duke -4.5
Utah at Stanford: The Utah game got out of hand late, but for most of the game the Utes were controlling tempo and keeping the game at a slower pace. Stanford would love to play at that slow pace.
Total: Under 43.5
LSU at Arkansas: Interesting line here. Arkansas is on the way up, but it's not like LSU is reeling either. LSU has played extremely well the past two weeks, and perhaps the line is a reflection of the toll the past two games have taken on the Tigers. Who knows, but unless LSU's defense is gone mentally, it should keep them in the game long enough to pull it out in the end.
Side: LSU +2.5
Auburn at Georgia: Much like the LSU game, this game pits one team which had its season essentially end vs. one that has a lot to play for. The difference, though, is that Auburn was exposed last week, while LSU barely was out played.
Side: Georgia -2
Mississippi State at Alabama: I give all credit to the power of Alabama, but I think this line is inflated. Mississippi State should be able to hang with the Tide in this one.
Side: MSU +8.5
