This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Only a few weeks remain in regular season, and now it's finally time to start looking toward the finish line.
What looked like a fairly uneventful week, turned out to be quite the shake-up ... at least outside the top-four anyway.
Auburn and Arizona State are both out of the picture, while Florida State and TCU came perilously close to joining them, but for now, both teams remain alive ... but for how long?
As we look ahead, let's start at the top. Alabama looks like a lock to remain part of the top four come season's end. The Tide have a showdown with Auburn in two weeks, but that doesn't look like quite the daunting task it did a few weeks back. After that it's a showdown with East division champion, which shouldn't be much of a problem either. That's one spot, how about the others?
Oregon has what looks to be a fairly easy road, but we've said that before and the Ducks have found a way in recent years to lose late in the season to underwhelming foes. That said, I'm going to fall for the bait again and assume the Ducks will take care of business this time around. That's two.
Here's where it gets tricky. Florida State will be heavy favorites in its final three games, but as we've seen all year, that doesn't mean the Seminoles will win with ease. In fact, I think they slip up either against Florida or against Georgia Tech
Only a few weeks remain in regular season, and now it's finally time to start looking toward the finish line.
What looked like a fairly uneventful week, turned out to be quite the shake-up ... at least outside the top-four anyway.
Auburn and Arizona State are both out of the picture, while Florida State and TCU came perilously close to joining them, but for now, both teams remain alive ... but for how long?
As we look ahead, let's start at the top. Alabama looks like a lock to remain part of the top four come season's end. The Tide have a showdown with Auburn in two weeks, but that doesn't look like quite the daunting task it did a few weeks back. After that it's a showdown with East division champion, which shouldn't be much of a problem either. That's one spot, how about the others?
Oregon has what looks to be a fairly easy road, but we've said that before and the Ducks have found a way in recent years to lose late in the season to underwhelming foes. That said, I'm going to fall for the bait again and assume the Ducks will take care of business this time around. That's two.
Here's where it gets tricky. Florida State will be heavy favorites in its final three games, but as we've seen all year, that doesn't mean the Seminoles will win with ease. In fact, I think they slip up either against Florida or against Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game.
That leaves two spots for Mississippi State, TCU, Ohio State and Baylor.
Mississippi State will likely grab one of those spots if it wins out, but the question is, do the Bulldogs deserve it? Looking back at the schedule, their resume doesn't look quite as impressive as it once did, and if the committee takes a second look, MSU might be left out of the mix. Considering the tall task that lies ahead and the possibility that the committee takes a second look, I'm going to leave them out.
Now, the curious cases of Baylor and TCU. It's almost impossible at this point to view them separately, which might end up working in their favor come decision time. As it stands now, TCU is ahead of Baylor in the standings, even though it lost to Baylor earlier this year. Looking at the remaining opponents of each of the teams, it's tough to find a loss, so there's reason to think TCU will remain ahead of Baylor.
In between, however, is Ohio State, which seems to be a much different team than it was just a month ago. Are the Buckeyes a different team or have they just feasted on a week Big Ten schedule? That's what the committee will have to decide.
My gut tells me that the committee will stand behind its current ranking of TCU ahead of Baylor, which leaves one spot for either Ohio State or Baylor. The decision will come down to leaving out Baylor, which beat TCU, or leaving out the Big Ten altogether. In this scenario, I think Ohio State wins out, but that doesn't mean I agree with it.
Slightly under .500 last week. The loses weren't quite as painful last week, however, as not many were close, but the Clemson over was a bit painful as the Tigers lost their top playmaker early in the game and changed the entire complexion of that contest. The Ohio State sweep was a bit frustrating as well as the Buckeyes were in complete control of that game the entire way, but could get out of their own way.
As always, I'll tweet any insights I come up with post-article each week. You can follow me at @gregvara
Cream of the Crop (Week: 2-3; Season: 12-25-1)
Saturday
Missouri at Tennessee: Tennessee is onto something with its new starting QB, and the offense is starting to resemble something special. Missouri has played well the last four weeks, but I expect a bit of a letdown in this spot. That letdown will come on the defensive side, however, which means there should be plenty of points scored in this game.
Total: Over 47.5
Indiana at Ohio State: OSU can't move up in the rankings without some help, but it can certainly fall on its own. The Buckeyes nearly blew their chance last week when they couldn't muster much separation from Minnesota, but they won't make the same mistake this week.
Side: OSU -34.5
Mississippi at Arkansas: Arkansas is a dangerous team as proven last week when the Hogs shut out LSU. That wasn't the first time they played well against a solid opponent, though. They lost squeakers to Alabama and Mississippi State, you know, two of the top four. I'm still not sure what to make of Ole Miss. The Rebels looked like a great team earlier in the year, but they haven't shown well lately. I'll take the points with the home team.
Side: Arkansas +3
Best of the Rest (Week 2-3; Season: 18-18-1)
Thursday
North Carolina at Duke: North Carolina's defense is historically bad, but its offense can keep up with just about any team in the country. Duke is the better team here, but they Blue Devils have had difficulty getting separation from just about everyone this year. As such, UNC should be able to keep this one close, or find its way in the back door.
Side: North Carolina +6
Saturday
Virginia Tech at Wake Forest: Wake Forest has been fairly awful this year, but this pick has nothing to do with the Deacons, it has everything to do with Virginia Tech and its inability to sustain any momentum this season.
Side: Wake Forest +15.5
Minnesota at Nebraska: In these parts, Minnesota came away with a moral victory last week; at least that's how the apologists are spinning it. Anyone who watched the game, however, saw what was a fairly easy win from the Buckeyes. Nebraska is obviously not on the same level as OSU, but this game will not be played in Minnesota. Nebraska got embarrassed last week in Wisconsin and you can bet that you'll see a solid effort from the Huskers this week.
Side: Nebraska -10
PASSing Thoughts (Week: 3-3; Season: 31-26)
Thursday
Arkansas State at Texas State: Weather permitting, this game should turn into a shootout. Texas State has played in some low-scoring games lately, but whenever it meets up with a team that has a competent offense, the points start flowing.
Total: Over 58.5
Saturday
Oklahoma State at Baylor: OSU is a mess this season and Baylor is in a spot where margin of victory could help its cause. In other words, Baylor might hit the over by itself this week.
Side: Baylor -28.5
Total: Over 67.5
Colorado at Oregon: Just like Baylor, Oregon can't afford to slip up here and while the Ducks might be peaking ahead, there's simply no way they'll lose here. Cover? Well, that could be an issue, but Colorado is pretty lousy on defense, so unless the Ducks come out really flat, this one will get ugly.
Side: Oregon -32.5
