This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Where were we? Right, when we parted ways last week I was talking about the teams that still had a chance to reach the final four come season's end, and for once, nothing much changed last week. Once again it was FSU threatening major changes to the top 4, but as always, the Seminoles escaped in the end.
Although nothing changed on the surface, we did learn one important fact -- FSU is locked into the top 4 unless it loses. If ever the committee were going to penalize FSU for its lackluster play, it would have been this week, after the Noles barely escaped lowly Boston College.
I don't like to use the term, "team of destiny," because I don't believe in the concept, but perhaps FSU is one of those teams that simply just knows how to win. It doesn't matter the competition, the Noles just play to that level, the level just above their opponent. Maybe, they'll just do that the entire season, all the way until the end. I doubt that's the case, but the beauty of the new system is, they'll get a chance to prove they can.
What about the rest of the crew? Alabama is locked-in ... if it continues to win, but just like every team in the top 8, lose and you're done. No team is bullet proof.
Mississippi State is just one win away from locking up a spot as well. In the Bulldog's case, they benefit from not having
Where were we? Right, when we parted ways last week I was talking about the teams that still had a chance to reach the final four come season's end, and for once, nothing much changed last week. Once again it was FSU threatening major changes to the top 4, but as always, the Seminoles escaped in the end.
Although nothing changed on the surface, we did learn one important fact -- FSU is locked into the top 4 unless it loses. If ever the committee were going to penalize FSU for its lackluster play, it would have been this week, after the Noles barely escaped lowly Boston College.
I don't like to use the term, "team of destiny," because I don't believe in the concept, but perhaps FSU is one of those teams that simply just knows how to win. It doesn't matter the competition, the Noles just play to that level, the level just above their opponent. Maybe, they'll just do that the entire season, all the way until the end. I doubt that's the case, but the beauty of the new system is, they'll get a chance to prove they can.
What about the rest of the crew? Alabama is locked-in ... if it continues to win, but just like every team in the top 8, lose and you're done. No team is bullet proof.
Mississippi State is just one win away from locking up a spot as well. In the Bulldog's case, they benefit from not having to play in the SEC Championship game as there's one less chance to slip up. All the Bulldogs need to do is beat their biggest rival this week. No small task, but certainly one they should be able to handle.
Oregon has some work to do with its own rival Oregon State and the Pac-12 South winner in the conference championship, but the Ducks should handle their business, as well.
One team that may have damaged its hopes last week was Ohio State. Unlike FSU, which doesn't have a loss, OSU needs the style points and letting Indiana hang around too long didn't help the cause last week. OSU now needs a lot of help to crack the top 4.
Maybe we'll get some movement this week, maybe not. One thing is for sure though, it's rivalry week and it's going to be interesting.
I got back on track last week as I topped the break-even mark in all three categories. If there is such a thing as momentum, perhaps it's on my side now.
As always, I'll tweet any insights I come up with post-article each week. You can follow me at @gregvara
Cream of the Crop (Week: 2-1; Season: 14-26-1)
Saturday
Western Kentucky at Marshall: This should be interesting ... for as long as Marshall stays motivated. WKU possesses what might be the worst defense in the country, and Marshall has one of the best offenses in the country. Add to that, Marshall is feeling disrespected by being left out of the national championship picture. Sure, the Herd doesn't really belong, but don't tell them that. The problem for Marshall all season has been its inability to get separation from weaker teams. That won't the case this week, though, as it puts up 50-plus points.
Side: Marshall -23
Total: Over 73.5
Stanford at UCLA: UCLA is rolling, and quite honestly, the Cardinal can't keep up. This is not the same Stanford team we've gotten accustomed to the last five years, the defense isn't as strong and the offense isn't nearly as potent.
Side: UCLA -5
Baylor at Texas Tech: Weather permitting, Baylor should roll in this spot. The only thing that worries me is the Bears' result from last week. They were in cruise control the entire game, but the final score didn't necessarily indicate that. With the eyes of the committee on them this week, though, you can expect every effort to earn style points.
Side: Baylor -25
Florida at Florida State: I'll keep this simple. Florida has figured it out, and FSU is living on borrowed time. Not only do I think the Gators cover here, I think they win as well.
Side: Florida +7
Best of the Rest (Week 2-1; Season: 20-19-1)
Thursday
TCU at Texas: TCU has a lot at stake Thursday as it heads to Austin, but that may not matter as Texas has found its footing over the last month or so. TCU has one of the best offenses in the nation, but its defense leaves a lot to be desired. Texas may not win this game, but it will keep it close.
Side: Texas +6.5
Friday
Nebraska at Iowa: Iowa proved a tough beat at home last week when it hung tough with the Badgers, while Nebraska proved to be fraudulent once again. Although its offense isn't stellar, Iowa should have no problem running on a weak Huskers defense this week.
Side: Iowa pick
Saturday
Illinois at Northwestern: I'm not entirely comfortable laying points with this Northwestern team as its proven to be unreliable in this spot, but I think the Cats have figured out their issues on offense and that will be the key in covering the number this week.
Side: Northwestern -8.5
Georgia Tech at Georgia: Georgia is the better team here, but Georgia Tech has really found its groove on offense over the last month, and I think the Yellow Jackets can keep this one close. If they can't, they'll at least put up some points.
Side: Georgia Tech +13
Total: Over 66
PASSing Thoughts (Week: 3-1; Season: 34-27)
Thursday
LSU at Texas A&M: A couple of strong teams here, but not quite top-level teams. Tough to call this one, but I'll side with the better defense and that belongs to LSU.
Side: LSU -3
Friday
Virginia at Virginia Tech: How far the mighty have fallen. Virginia Tech peaked earlier this season at Ohio State and it's been downhill since. The Hokies have fallen so far that they are underdogs at home against Virginia this week. I think they've hit rock bottom, however, and they find a way to win this week.
Side: Virginia Tech +1
Saturday
Michigan at Ohio State: My first instinct was to go with OSU, but the Buckeyes may have been exposed on the defensive side of the ball last week. That or they were just looking past the Hoosiers. Whatever the case, there's no reason to think Michigan can slow the OSU offense, so as long as Michigan can score a time or two, the total should be easily within reach.
Total: Over 52.5
Minnesota at Wisconsin: I'll admit it, I've lost my feel for the Gophers. I expected them to get handled last week at Nebraska and that obviously did not happen. Perhaps the program has really turned a corner. We should get our answer this week as the result of this game should speak volumes.
Side: Minnesota +14
Oregon at Oregon State: Oregon doesn't really need style points, it just needs to make sure of a victory. That said, this Oregon State team is not really good and will have a hard time keeping up with the Ducks this week.
Side: Oregon -19
Auburn at Alabama: This one is all about revenge and unfortunately, Auburn is vulnerable this time around. No mercy this week as Auburn was solely responsible for ruining the Tide's season last year.
Side: Alabama -9.5
Mississippi State at Ole Miss: As I mentioned last week, I'm not sure Ole Miss was ever that good to begin with. As for MSU, I'm not completely sold on the Bulldogs either, but there's simply too much at stake here to lose in this spot.
Side: MSU -2
