This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Georgia vs. Florida State Best Bets
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For sports bettors, the Orange Bowl might be the hardest post-season game to figure out. I've been tasked with this challenge, and although I wasn't going to risk any of my hard-earned cash on this contest, I think I've found an avenue after some analysis.
Georgia vs. Florida State Betting Odds for Orange Bowl
Spread: Georgia -20 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: 45.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Georgia -1200 (BetMGM Sportsbook), Florida State +980 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The spread has moved a whopping six points since the game opened, and the huge influx of Georgia money isn't much of a surprise. The original -13.5 line was entirely too generous, and I wouldn't have hesitated to hit it when it was available. Surprisingly, the O/U total has been static, and it could be an intriguing way to go.
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Georgia vs. Florida State Betting Picks for Orange Bowl
Both of these teams have good reason to be disappointed. Georgia found itself in a one-and-done scenario against Alabama. It couldn't convert, and the Seminoles experienced what some believe is the biggest CFP committee mistake in the modern era. The egregious denial of a CFP berth even got Florida's state government involved, and FSU has sued the ACC over the exit fee. The program feels a move to another conference (namely the SEC) is justified, where the unbeaten record would hold more weight in the future. Still, it might not have mattered; Jordan Travis' absence was the reason why FSU was excluded, and that's an argument that will linger long after the season is over.
The team with the momentum and motivation edge is hard to nail down. It's easy to think Florida State has the edge in that department, but the roster is gutted due to opt-outs and injuries. It's almost easier to list who IS playing as opposed to who isn't suiting up in Miami. Brock Glenn will be FSU's quarterback after Tate Rodemaker headed to the portal. After talk of picking up a quarterback like DJ Uiagalelei or Cameron Ward in the portal, Rodemaker saw the writing on the wall. Glenn is largely untested, and he won't get help from many of FSU's playmakers, as Keon Coleman, Trey Benson, Johnny Wilson, and a host of other offensive players won't be on the field. The running back room is practically empty. The defense is equally gutted. Five starters are opting out for the draft, and one is portal-bound.
Aside from Brock Bowers, Georgia is at full strength on both sides of the ball. While Georgia's defense has shown some cracks, they should feast on the short-handed offense and give the freshman quarterback more than he can handle. The offense is humming behind Carson Beck, and he has playmakers all around him. Some may balk at this line, but this could be a blowout of epic proportions. I will give an honorable mention to the Over in this matchup, but my primary pick is below.
Georgia vs. Florida State Expert Pick: Georgia -20 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Georgia vs. Florida State Predictions for Orange Bowl
The only thing that could save the Seminoles is a huge heap of motivation to prove the committee wrong - the only problem is the severe lack of talent available to make a statement. A defense at full strength would improve FSU's chances, but the system will be out of sync with inexperience at key positions. Brock Glenn would need a Miller Moss-like backup surprise to make the game competitive, but I just don't see that happening. Georgia will get up early and then pummel the defense into submission with an impressive corps of running backs led by Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton. This game won't be close. Georgia wins, 42-10.
