National Championship Game Best Bets: 
Miami vs. Indiana 
The Miami Hurricanes (13-2) and the Indiana Hoosiers (15-0) meet Monday at 7:30 p.m. EST at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida in the College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T. We've got you covered with picks, predictions and best bets for the MLK Day contest with the sport's most coveted trophy on the line.
Miami gets the opportunity to play in its home stadium, but it takes on the No. 1 team in the nation, and one that has steamrolled all competition so far in these playoffs. Indiana is looking to give the Big Ten conference its third consecutive national championship, joining the Michigan Wolverines (2023) and Ohio State Buckeyes (2024) in the club.
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The Hurricanes have been able to get to this point using a combination of suffocating defense and timely offense. Miami won at Texas A&M in the first round, 10-3, overcoming a stiff wind, a suffocating Aggies defense, and a hostile crowd, advancing.
On New Year's Eve, Miami exacted revenge for losing the 2003 national championship to Ohio State, edging the defending champ Buckeyes 24-14. They had a crazy pick-six on a screen pass by Ohio State, while using an outstanding pass rush to knock the Buckeyes offense off the rails.
In the most recent matchup, in the Fiesta Bowl, in the semifinals, Miami topped Ole Miss 31-27 in a seesaw affair with the SEC's last remaining hope. QB Carson Beck ran in a 3-yard touchdown with 18 seconds left, flipping the win to Miami, and sending it home for the title game.
That's three wins and three covers for Miami, while hitting the Under in two of three games, including a win over another Big Ten team, Ohio State.
Miami will be without TE Elija Lofton for Monday's game, and DB Xavier Lucas will miss the first half due to targeting in the previous game. LB Malik Bryant and DL Donta Simpson are also sidelined, while DB Damari Brown is questionable. Indiana doesn't have any such injury issues, and coach Curt Cignetti said anyone available against Oregon in the Peach Bowl is available Monday.
The Hoosiers ran through the regular season, while also taking down Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis on Dec. 6. To be the champ, both of these teams had to beat the champ, and each passed that test.
In the Rose Bowl, while a lot of fans didn't think Alabama should have been in these playoffs, most fans figured we'd get a good game between the Crimson Tide and Hoosiers. It was anything but, as Indiana crushed Alabama 38-3.
Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza threw for 192 yards and 3 TDs against the Tide, RB Kaelon Black ran for 99 yards and a score, and RB Roman Hemby had 89 yards and a TD. In the passing game, WRs Charlie Becker (4-60-1), Omar Cooper Jr. (3-45-1) and Elijah Sarratt (4-40-1) each hauled in scoring strikes from "Heis-mendoza".
Against Oregon in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, Indiana was crushed again. It was a rematch, as IU won 30-20 in Eugene. But, the Hoosiers creamed (and crimsoned) the Ducks 56-22 to cover as mere 3.5-point favorites as the Over (50.5) cashed. Like Miami, Indiana is 3-0 ATS in these playoffs, with the Under going 2-1.
Mendoza is a Miami native, so he returns home looking to cap off his storybook season in style. They might make a Netflix movie about him if he gets the job done. Mendoza faced Miami Oct. 5, 2024 as a member of the Cal Golden Bears, and he threw for 285 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, while running for 20 yards, in a controversial 39-38 win by the Canes in Berkeley.
Miami vs Indiana Betting Odds for the CFP National Championship
Spread: Miami +7.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Indiana -7.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 46.5 (BetMGM); Under 47 (BetRivers)
Moneyline: Miami +260 (BetMGM); Indiana -310 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Miami vs Indiana Betting Picks for the CFP National Championship
We've talked about offense, but defense is what really wins championships, and both sides have amazing units.
Indiana ranked No. 3 in the nation with just 260.9 total yards allowed, ranking third in the nation, while giving up just 75.0 rushing yards per game to check in second in the country. It was also second with just 11.1 PPG allowed. If IU has any kind of Achilles heel, it allowed 185.9 passing yards per game, good for 23rd in the land, and much of that yardage came with teams playing comeback.
Indiana LB Roijah Hardy had 99 total tackles, eight sacks and four pass defenses, while LB Isaiah Jones was good for 76 total stops and seven sacks. LB Aiden Fisher was second on the team with 91 tackles. He managed 3.5 sacks and had a pair of interceptions, including a pick-six, while adding a fumble recovery.
Miami's defense allowed just 313.5 total yards (21st), 220.9 passing yards (62nd) and 92.6 rushing yards (6th) per game, while giving up 13.4 PPG (4th).
DL Akheem Mesidor led the way with 10.5 sacks, and he was nicked up in the Fiesta Bowl. However, he doesn't even appear on the injury report, so he is reportedly good to go.
DL Rueben Bain Jr. is going to be plying his trade in the NFL sooner rather than later. He had 46 total stops with 8.5 sacks, an interception and a forced fumble. Like Mesidor, he is a disrupter, and Mendoza will want to keep his head on a swivel. DB Keionte Scott had the 72-yard pick-six against the Buckeyes, two of the team's three INTs for score this season.
Playing at home is key. While Indiana has looked great at every turn in these playoffs, expect this to be much closer than many think. Take the points, as this should be a one-score game.
Miami vs Indiana CFP National Championship Best Bet: Miami +7.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Miami vs Indiana Betting Predictions for the CFP National Championship
The Hurricanes have the defense to really make the Hoosiers sweat, but Indiana's defense is pretty amazing, too. We've seen higher-scoring title games in the past, but this should be a throwback kind of game.
Expect the kickers to be front and center, as they'll account for much of the scoring while defense rules the day.
Miami PK Carter Davis was a perfect 49-of-49 on point-after attempts, while converting 73.9 percent (17-of-23) on field goals, with a long of 53 yards this season.
Indiana PK Nicolas Radicic made all 84 of his PATs, while going 16-of-17 on field goals, but he didn't have an attempt over 50 yards, which is something of interest. Still, look for a low-scoring game, with perhaps Radicic as an unlikely hero.
Score Prediction: Indiana 20, Miami 16
Miami vs. Indiana CFP National Championship Player Prop Picks for Monday, Jan. 19
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza - Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+122 FanDuel)
At plus-money, going Under on Mendoza's touchdown pass total is a good play. He has rolled up 41 TD passes this season and 8 TDs in his two playoff wins. However, the Miami pass rush is just different, and it will limit his ability to make things happen on offense.
Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. - Under 69.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
One does not run easily against the Indiana defense. Fletcher was the savior in the first-round game against A&M, and he averaged 5.4 yards per carry with 1,080 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs. However, the Hoosiers will keep him bottled up for most of the evening.
Indiana RB Kaelon Black - Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105 FanDuel)
It's the natty, so let's go with some extra player props. There aren't going to be a lot of touchdowns in this game, but if/when Indiana does score, Black is likely to be the most likely Hoosier doing a TD dance at Hard Rock Stadium. He had three rushing TDs in two playoff games, and he has seven rushing scores in his past seven outings.
Miami PK Carter Davis - Over 5.5 Total Kicking Points (-130 FanDuel)
Carter will get the job done here. All it takes is two field goals made, and he knows this stadium well. Book it.
Miami P Dylan Joyce - Longest Punt - Under 51.5 Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Sticking with the Miami special teams, go low on Joyce's yardage total. He averaged just 44.2 yards per attempt on 49 total punts, although he did have a 73-yard bomb at one point.
