Lenovo Japanese Grand Prix
Location: Suzuka, Japan
Circuit: Suzuka Circuitland
Course Length: 5.807
Laps: 53
Lenovo Japanese Grand Prix Preview
With two races down in the 2025 Formula 1 season, McLaren has two race victories. While Lewis Hamilton was able to snag the sprint race victory in China, Sunday's grand prix was all Oscar Piastri's. The McLaren driver led all but three laps from pole, winning his first race of the season with teammate Lando Norris and George Russell rounding out the podium spots. As for Hamilton, both he and teammate Charles Leclerc were disqualified from the race due to technical infringements, losing significant ground in the championship standings. Pierre Gasly also ran afoul of the regulations and was that race's third disqualified driver. When the dust from the weekend settled, it was Lando Norris that found himself still atop the championship standings with a trip to Japan on the horizon. Second to Norris in the standings is Red Bull Racing's Max Verstappen. The defending champion's fourth-place finish at China was enough to keep him a point ahead of Russell. This week's Japan stop could be more good news for the Red Bull driver, too. Verstappen has won the last three races at the track and will be hoping to do so again to get his first 2025 victory. He and everyone else will be chasing McLaren, though.
Key Stats at Suzuka Circuitland
- Races: 34
- Winners from pole: 18
- Winners from top-5 starters: 31
- Winners from top-10 starters: 33
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 0
- Fastest race: 222.133kph
Previous 10 winners
2024 - Max Verstappen
2023- Max Verstappen
2022- Max Verstappen
2019 - Valtteri Bottas
2018- Lewis Hamilton
2017- Lewis Hamilton
2016- Nico Rosberg
2015 – Lewis Hamilton
2014- Lewis Hamilton
2013 – Sebastian Vettel
Suzuka is a popular and unique track for Formula 1. The circuit is a figure 8 with a crossover at one of the fastest points on the track. It is also made up of a good variety of high- and medium-speed corners that put emphasis on car setup and tire wear. Due to the high speeds and relatively older pavement, Pirelli will have its hardest compound tires available to teams for the weekend. However, the medium and soft tires are comparatively softer than what was used in 2024. This could prove to be an interesting point of differentiation amongst the field. What makes the option even more intriguing is that parts of this track have been repaved since last season. The combined changes are expected to increase speeds, which will push the tires to their limits. A two-stop race strategy is likely to be the preferred option, which was also the case in 2024. However, the car and driver that can manage their tires the best, ensuring consistent wear throughout a stint, is going to have an advantage.
RotoWire Formula DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Lenovo Japanese Grand Prix
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Lando Norris - $12,600
Oscar Piastri - $12,000
Max Verstappen - $11,600
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Lewis Hamilton - $10,600
George Russell - $10,200
Charles Leclerc - $9,800
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Yuki Tsunoda - $7,000
Alex Albon - $5,800
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $5,400
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Fernando Alonso - $5,000
Pierre Gasly - $4,800
Esteban Ocon - $4,200
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Lenovo Japanese Grand Prix
Captain – Lando Norris - $18,900
Charles Leclerc - $9,800
Yuki Tsunoda - $7,000
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $5,500
Esteban Ocon - $4,200
Constructor – Williams - $4,300
McLaren has the best balanced car of the season so far. The teammates have won both races held so far and haven't faced too heavy competition across a full race distance. Suzuka's medium- and high-speed corners require a balanced car that is easy on tires. With the McLaren best at both of those tasks, this is the team to follow. Looking at last year's race, Norris was the better of the two drivers at Suzuka, picking up a fifth-place finish from the third starting spot as Piastri finished eighth. Therefore, Norris is my choice this week. Following him, Ferrari was quite strong at Suzuka last year. Charles Leclerc finished fourth but has yet to get off the mark in 2025. The car has shown speed, but team decisions and mistakes have cost him. They are likely to get their act together, though. Yuki Tsunoda will be another driver worth following. He replaces Liam Lawson in the Red Bull this week in his home race. Tsunoda finished 10th at Suzuka last season and a step up in machinery, if he can handle the car's quirks, could see him finish even higher up the order.
Lower down the order, Williams has impressed so far this season. The speed Carlos Sainz Jr. showed in preseason testing seems to be legitimate thus far, and that should give him a boost this week in a race he finished third in last season while still with Ferrari. A points-paying finish should be within his grasp. The same can be said of Esteban Ocon. His Haas F1 Team car has also shown promise early this season, enabling him to pick up a fifth-place finish last time out at China. Ocon finished 15th last year at Suzuka in the Alpine, but he had a run of four finishes of ninth or better at the track before then.
As mentioned earlier, the Williams car has shown significant improvement this season. Both drivers have been fighting among the top 10 each race, and were it not for a mistake in wet conditions from Sainz in Australia, all four of their combined finishes would have likely been in the points. Fantasy players should feel comfortable choosing this squad until that strength shows signs of diminishing.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Lenovo Japanese Grand Prix
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbookas of 8:00 PM ET Thursday
Race Winner - Lando Norris (+160), Max Verstappen (+700)
Top-Four Finish - Yuki Tsunoda (+500)
Double Top-10 Finish - Williams (+110)
Winning Margin - Between Six and 12 Seconds (+285)
It is hard to go against McLaren at this point in the season given their current pace. Given his performance in this race last season, Lando Norris is the better choice this week over teammate Piastri. The odds reflect that, too. Those looking for a longshot option may want to consider Max Verstappen. The Red Bull driver won the last three Japanese Grands Prix and has been just behind the front runners so far in 2025. Should anything happen to the McLarens, Verstappen should be there to pick up the pieces. Another driver bet worth considering is Yuki Tsunoda to score a top-four finish. This will be Tsunoda's first race in the senior Red Bull car, but this is his home circuit and the step up in machinery should be an advantage for him. He has every incentive to perform this week, and a top-four finish could be within reach.
A more confident bet this week would be for the Williams teammates to both finish inside the top 10. The top 10 is exactly where they've been racing this season and barring any issues, top-10 finishes are what both drivers should be expecting this week. The car's speed has been impressive. The drivers and team just needs to execute.
Finally, no Japanese Grand Prix winning margin since the track returned to the schedule in 2022 has been closer than 12 seconds. However, the competition in 2025 has been much closer. Australia's margin of less than one second should be discounted given the unique weather conditions, and China's margin should be more in line with expectations. That race was won by Piastri by just under 10 seconds. I would expect a similar margin to play out this week in Japan under dry race conditions.
