Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Location: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Course: Yas Marina Circuit
Circuit Length: 5.281 KM
Laps: 58
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Preview
For the first time since 2021, the Driver's Championship will come down to the final race of the season. We all remember how that turned out, so hopefully the battle between Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri is decided without much influence from the stewards.
Norris enters the weekend with a less-than-comfortable 12-point lead over Verstappen, and a 16-point lead over his McLaren teammate, Piastri. His scenario to take home his first championship is straightforward, as a podium finish would get the job done regardless of where Piastri or Verstappen finish.
Verstappen can win the Championship with the combination of a win and Norris finishing fourth or worse. If Verstappen finishes second, Norris would have to finish eighth or worse, and if Verstappen finishes third, Norris would have to finish ninth or worse.
The conditions for Piastri are even more difficult. In order to win the Championship, he has to finish first or second. If Piastri wins the race, Norris will have to finish sixth or worse. If Piastri finishes second, Norris will have to finish 10th or worse, while Verstappen would have to finish fourth or worse.
The Constructor standings have spread out considerably in recent races. There aren't likely to any changes to the team standings this weekend.
Key Stats at Yas Marina Circuit
- Races: 16
- Winners from Pole: 11
- Winners from front row: 15
- Winners from top-5: 16
Previous 10 Yas Marina Circuit Winners
2024 - Lando Norris
2023 – Max Verstappen
2022 - Max Verstappen
2021 – Max Verstappen
2020 – Max Verstappen
2019 - Lewis Hamilton
2018 – Lewis Hamilton
2017 - Valtteri Bottas
2016 - Lewis Hamilton
2015 - Nico Rosberg
2014 – Lewis Hamilton
The Yas Marina Circuit used to be one of the more unique tracks on the F1 calendar, though the evolving F1 schedule makes its features stand out less. As for the racing, the track has never been particularly demanding on tires. That's become even more true since the track was reconfigured a few years ago in an effort to create better flow and more passing opportunities.
Drivers have typically used a one-stop strategy while starting on medium tires, though Pirelli has suggested that some drivers could try soft tires in the race this season – typically a compound reserve only for qualifying.
RotoWire F1 DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Max Verstappen - $14,000
Lando Norris - $13,400
Oscar Piastri - $12,000
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
George Russell - $10,400
Kimi Antonelli - $8,400
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $6,800
Fernando Alonso - $5,800
Nico Hulkenberg - $4,600
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Liam Lawson - $4,400
Oliver Bearman - $4,200
Pierre Gasly- $3,800
Gabriel Bortoleto - $3,600
Constructor Values
McLaren - $15,000
Mercedes- $10,500
Williams - $3,900
Racing Bulls - $3,300
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Captain – Lando Norris - $20,100
Kimi Antonelli - $8,400
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $6,800
Fernando Alonso - $5,800
Nico Hulkenberg - $4,600
Constructor- Williams - $3,900
DraftKings has once again made it very difficult to stack an elite driver with McLaren as the constructor. That creates a decision as to whether to build through an elite Captain or Constructor.
McLaren is the obvious constructor to choose, as they have by far the best chance of achieving a double-podium as a team. The clear advantage of building through McLaren is building in a safe floor of points.
On the other hand, there aren't many obvious choices to slot in at Captain aside from Verstappen, Norris and Piastri. George Russell, and perhaps even Kimi Antonelli, could be the drivers to step in to challenge the three Championship contenders. Prior to Saturday morning's qualifying session, my lean is to lock in one of the top three drivers at Captain and then hope one of Williams or Kick Sauber can get both of their cars into Q3 and in position to score points.
Going with an elite Captain and a value constructor keeps most of the driver pool available to fill the four remaining spots. As has been the case for much of the season, the Mercedes drivers are the best of the rest. That makes Russell or Antonelli a top priority.
Alonso, Hulkenberg and Gasly are some of the top priorities in the middle to lower tiers of pricing, because each is very likely to outperform their teammate and pick up the coveted five DK points. The trio is listed in order of their desirability, and Gasly in particular is a very risky pick given Alpine's dreadful season.
Both Williams drivers are potentially in play. Even setting aside his excellent podium showing in Qatar, Sainz has been in the far better form of the duo.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Race Winner – Lando Norris (+350)
As of Friday morning, there aren't many lines posted on sportsbooks. The most widespread options available are the race winner and the driver to win the Championship. Taken together, Verstappen is favored to win the race, but Norris is favored to win the Championship. The latter is sensible after Norris posted the fastest times in both FP1 and FP2, but he looks to be underpriced to win the race. On at least one sportsbook, he has the third-shortest odds to win the race behind Verstappen and Russell. That creates an opportunity prior to qualifying.
More lines should become available this evening before qualifying and certainly after the qualifying session.
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