Backfield Breakdown: RB Usage Report & Week 13 Waivers Preview

Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

David Montgomery (shoulder / day-to-day)

Brian Robinson (ankle / day-to-day)

Austin Ekeler (concussion / week-to-week)

J.K. Dobbins (knee / uncertain)

Montgomery left late in the third quarter of Detroit's win over Indianapolis and didn't return. He said after the game that he expects to play Thursday against the Bears. If not, Jahmyr Gibbs will get even more work than usual while Craig Reynolds steps in as the No. 2 back (and likely takes far fewer touches/snaps than Monty normally would).

Robinson injured his ankle in the first half of Sunday's loss to Dallas, returned later in the game, and then left for good. He ultimately played only 18% of snaps, with six touches for 24 yards. Ekeler took 61% of snaps and 11 touches for 24 yards before suffering his second concussion of the season on a kick return late in the fourth quarter. It looked bad, and Ekeler missed Week 4 after suffering a concussion Week 3. Washington's backfield may end up in the hands of Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez for Week 13.

Dobbins was injured in the second quarter Monday night and missed the entire second half. Hassan Haskins got most of the snaps after halftime but with just one carry and no targets. Gus Edwards finished with nine carries for 11 yards and a TD, plus one incomplete target (it was more like eight carries for 18 yards and two targets, but the one "pass" he caught was thrown backward and went for a seven-yard loss).

Missed Week 8

Tyjae Spears (concussion / day-to-day)

Alexander Mattison (ankle / week-to-week) & Zamir White (quad / week-to-week)

Isiah Pacheco (IR - fibula / expected to return Week 13/14)

Kendre Miller (IR - hamstring / eligible Week 14)

MarShawn Lloyd (ankle/appendix / eligible Week 16)

Stock Report 📊

A lot of what you'll see here is building on my work from Box Score Breakdown, the weekly recap article with stat tables for every team that include snaps, routes, and target/air-yard shares, in addition to all the basic stats like carries, catches, yards and TDs. I also discuss role specifics and make note of various circumstances that could cause numbers to be misleading, so it's worth checking out if you're looking to go into even more detail on running backs before making waiver adds or lineup decisions for the upcoming week.

Note: Opps. = carries + targets    

All stats below are from Week 12 only unless otherwise specified           

Trending Up 📈

Aaron Jones - 78% snaps, 26 of 30 RB opps, 129 total yards + TD

Bucky Irving - 55% snaps, 57% routes, 18 of 35 RB opps, 151 total yards + TD

Ameer Abdullah - 89% snaps, 86% routes, 14 of 19 RB opps, 65 total yards + TD

Jaylen Warren - season-high 57% snaps, 16 of 35 RB opps, 64 total yards + TD

Nick Chubb - season-high 64% snaps, 21 of 26 RB opps, 60 total yards + 2 TDs

D'Andre Swift - only 53% snaps but 17 of 20 RB opps (85%), 65 total yards

Tony Pollard - 94% snaps (Spears out), 29 of 31 RB opps, 129 total yards + TD

Jeremy McNichols - Ekeler/Robinson injuries

Chris Rodriguez - Ekeler/Robinson injuries

Gus Edwards - Dobbins injury

Hassan Haskins - Dobbins injury

Irving handled his largest snap and route shares in any game Rachaad White has also played, and the rookie's workload was even better than the rates above suggest, as White took six straight carries to close out the game (in other words, Irving had 18 of 29 RB opps before the final two drives in garbage time).

Trending Down 📉

Rhamondre Stevenson - 40% snaps, 10 of 21 RB opps., 13 total yards

Najee Harris - 40% snaps, 18 of 35 RB opps, 54 total yards

Rachaad White - 47% snaps, 33% routes, 13 of 36 RB opps, 47 total yards + TD

Tyrone Tracy - 47% snaps, 19% routes, second lost fumble in two games

Javonte Williams - 55% snaps, 40% routes, 12 of 23 RB opps, 4 total yards

Raheem Mostert - third straight game with exactly three opportunities

Jonathon Brooks - 9% snaps, two of 23 RB opps, 7 total yards

Rhamondre Stevenson's usage wasn't as bad as the final numbers look, but he didn't play well and generally has looked slow while struggling to generate any yardage beyond what's blocked recently. He took 10 of 16 RB opportunities on 57% snap share before the fourth quarter, losing a portion of his recent workload to Antonio Gibson even before the Patriots fell behind by 3-4 scores.

Rachaad White had a better day than Stevenson, but in White's case his role was worse than the final numbers suggest, as he got six consecutive carries to close out the game with his team up by 23 in the final minutes. Prior to those carries, White took just seven of Tampa Bay's 30 RB opportunities.

Unsettled Backfields 🎲

These are the backfields that need to be monitored closely, where role changes could be imminent or we aren't sure about the team's depth chart moving forward. Backfield with a clear hierarchy/order won't be included unless there's a long-term injury to the starter and the backup situation is uncertain or confusing. 

Messy Backfields

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Travis Etienne was the clear lead for Jacksonville in Week 11, taking 74% of snaps and 15 of 17 RB opportunities, but that was with Tank Bigsby sidelined by an ankle injury and only D'Ernest Johnson working in reserve. Etienne gained just 33 yards on 15 touches, leaving the door open for Bigsby to have a big role after the Week 12 bye if his ankle injury has healed.

My segment on the Bucs RBs from Box Score Breakdown:

• RB Bucky Irving took on a larger role prior to the fourth quarter, getting 61% of snaps, 57% route share and 15 of 27 RB opportunities (nine of the 18 carries and six of the eight targets). Irving had 15 of the 21 RB opps. before Rachaad White closed out the game with six straight carries.
  • All three of their RBs got 2-3 touches on a 14-play, 70-yard opening drive, including Sean Tucker scoring a one-yard TD after Irving was tackled at the 1-yard line on a 14-yard reception. However, Tucker then fumbled on the third drive and played only one snap the rest of the game, with Irving being the lead guy while White mixed in and then handling garbage-time work. Irving fumbled on the first play of the penultimate drive, and after that the Bucs' final six snaps on offense were all carries for White.
• Workloads up until Tucker's fumble (first 18 minutes):
  • Irving: 57% snaps, three carries, five targets
  • White: 52% snaps, three carries, zero targets
  • Tucker: 17% snaps, four carries, zero targets
• Workloads between Tucker's fumble and Irving's fumble (12:00 of Q2 to 7:00 of Q4):
  • Irving: 58% snaps, nine carries, one target
  • White: 39% snaps, three carries, one target
  • Tucker: 3% snaps, zero carries, one target

On the Brink

1. Denver Broncos
2. New York Giants

Javonte Williams wasn't semi-benched like in Week 10, but he also didn't thrive like in Week 11, and this time it was Jaleel McLaughlin (rather than Audric Estime) who picked up some extra work. It's interesting, though, that Williams still got most of the snaps while managing only four yards on 10 touches, as two weeks prior the Broncos basically turned things over to Estime when he did better than Williams early in the game. Sean Payton's rotations in Denver have been tough to figure out, apart from Courtland Sutton, so there won't necessarily be a clear "winner" here, or even consistency in terms of the "hot hand" approach. There may be some weeks in which a slow start gets Williams pulled and others when it doesn't impact his workload. And maybe he'll eventually lose the starting job, or maybe not.

Tyrone Tracy lost a fumble for a second time in as many games, then sat out the following drive, which ended up accounting for nearly one-fourth of New York's plays on the afternoon and ended with a one-yard TD from Devin Singletary. Tracy returned for the following drive and got 50% of snaps and four of five RB opportunities over New York's final three series. And he'd taken 56% of snaps with nine of 11 opportunities before the fumble. Another fumble might really cost him, but the Giants seem willing to let Tracy work through the struggles, as he's mostly played well this season and the team is well out of playoff contention.

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

If you're looking for a more comprehensive waivers article, RW's Kevin Payne has you covered. Here we're just taking a quick look at some RBs to target based on the work contained in this article and Monday's Box Score Breakdown. 

In order to qualify, the RB needs to be rostered in no more than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Potential Short-Term Starters

1. Gus Edwards - 26% 
2. Ameer Abdullah - 24%
3. Jaylen Warren - 59%  
4. Jeremy McNichols - 1%
5. Justice Hill - 20% 
6. Chris Rodriguez - 0%
7. Hassan Haskins - 0%
8. Jerome Ford - 41%
9. Craig Reynolds - 0%

This is the most interesting week in a while for RB waivers, thanks to the injuries to Dobbins, Robinson and Ekeler, as well as the fact that many people ignored Abdullah last week (Backfield Breakdown had him listed as the No. 2 add, behind only Jaylen Warren, who was already rostered in most of your leagues). Abdullah isn't going to take a ton of carries and might not even have another week in the starting job, but the RB targets have been there all season in Las Vegas, with Alexander Mattison also providing some solid fantasy scores despite minimal rushing success.

Gus Edwards won't add much as a receiver but could be a great source of rushing yards and TDs if Dobbins misses time. Edwards is the upside play among RBs this week, as there's a good chance McNichols and Rodriguez have an even-ish split of touches if Robinson and Ekeler don't play.

Bench Stashes

1. Tyler Allgeier - 31%
2. Jaylen Warren - 59%
3. Blake Corum - 14%
4. Zach Charbonnet - 41%
5. Tank Bigsby - 39%
6. Ray Davis - 16%
7. Trey Benson - 27%
8. Jaylen Wright - 6%
9. Braelon Allen - 24%
10. Dameon Pierce - 2%
11. Cam Akers - 24%
12. Roschon Johnson - 28% 
13. Khalil Herbert - 10%
14. Devin Singletary - 46%
15. Audric Estime - 26%

Drop Candidates

1. Raheem Mostert - 65%
2. Jordan Mason - 43%
3. Zamir White - 23% (quad)
4. Ezekiel Elliott - 24%