Beating the Book: Bucs Bounce Back, Ravens Outlast Bengals + Full Week 5 Picks

This article is part of our Beating the Book series.

Welcome to this week's edition of Beating the Book – or perhaps more accurately: Surviving the Book. After slogging our way to an 8-7-1 ATS record in Week 3, we mustered a 7-7-2 mark in Week 4. Respectable? Sure, I suppose. But breaking even is not the goal here.

With that said, the league continues to be steeped in near-unprecedented levels of parity. Forget the spreads – picking so many of these games straight up each week feels like a true 50/50 proposition. While teams like Philadelphia, Kansas City and Buffalo have established themselves as early contenders, it feels as though the list of teams bettors can feel confident in each week is as short as it's ever been.

Coming off of a Week 4 that featured only two teams favored by at least a touchdown, the Week 5 schedule is a bit more lopsided. As of Wednesday, seven teams are favored by 6.0 points or more, while two other games sit at 5.5-point spreads.

Of course, handicapping-wise, this doesn't mean a whole lot. The point of the spread is to make each matchup as close to a true 50/50 as possible, after all. But if nothing else, we have a handful of good team vs. bad team matchups that should give us a leg up when it comes to projecting game flow.

Before we dive into Week 5, let's take our customary look back at the best and worst calls from my Week 4 picks.

Last week: 7-7-2 ATS; 11-5 straight up; best bet lost (to Bailey Zappe. Honestly this should count as two losses)

On the season: 31-30-3 ATS; 39-24-1 straight up; 1-3 best bets

Best calls of Week 4: 

• So far, Lamar Jackson has been able to bail out the defense in wins over the Jets and Patriots, but this Bills team is a completely different animal. Give me the Bills to win and cover a close game on the road.
• This is the perfect get-right matchup for the Chargers, who desperately need to get their ground game working. The Texans have the worst run defense in the league (by a wide margin), while Los Angeles enters Week 4 dead last in the NFL in both rushing yards (177) and yards per carry (2.6). Something has to give, and I think it's going to be the Houston defense.

Worst calls of Week 4:

• It goes without saying that this is a great spot for Green Bay, which should have considerable wiggle room to continue experimenting with its still-in-beta passing game.
• Both McVay and Matthew Stafford have a knack for overcomplicating the easy things – the Rams should've had two more touchdowns last week against Arizona – but I think they do just enough to earn a hard-fought victory on the road.

NFL Week 5 Picks: Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week via BetMGM, as of Wednesday at Noon ET.

Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts (+3.0) at Denver Broncos

This isn't a must-win game for the Colts – such is life in the AFC South – but it's starting to feel like their season is already in danger of slipping away. Indy pulled off an improbable upset over Kansas City in Week 3, but outside of that win, the Colts have looked like one of the five worst teams in the league.

Through four weeks, they rank 31st in offensive EPA and dead last in points scored. To make matters worse, Jonathan Taylor emerged from Sunday's loss with an ankle injury that landed him in a walking boot at practice Tuesday.

Update: Taylor has officially been ruled out.

While the Colts head to Denver as 3.0-point dogs, they may be catching the Broncos at the right time. Not only did the Broncos hand the Raiders their first win of the season last week, but they emerged from the loss down two of their best players. Javonte Williams is done for the season due to a torn ACL and LCL, while Randy Gregory was placed on IR with a knee injury of his own. Losing Williams, in particular, is a massive blow for a team that will now turn to Melvin Gordon, who's fumbled the ball five times in his last 44 touches, as its RB1.

Speaking of which, the Colts lead the league in total fumbles (12) thus far, with Matt Ryan accounting for nine of those. The NFL single-season fumbles record is 23 – held by both Kerry Collins and Daunte Culpepper. Ryan is well on pace to make a serious run at the record – I get chills just thinking about it – which may very well end up being the highlight of the Colts' season. All I ask is that if Ryan gets close to the record with a few games remaining, Collins and Culpepper need to go full Roger Maris Jr. and follow the Colts around until Ryan's 24th fumble.

Anyway. The Broncos are down on their luck, but winning this game on the road, on a short week, without Taylor, is probably too much to ask. I'll take the Broncos to cover and notch their third ugly win of the season.

The pick: Broncos 20 – Colts 14

💂 Sunday London Game 💂

New York Giants (+8.5) at Green Bay Packers

The Giants are 3-1 for the first time since 2011, and yet I remain wholeheartedly convinced that this is one of the worst teams in the league. Credit New York for taking advantage of a soft early schedule, but unfortunately they're out of matchups against FCS powerhouses Carolina and Chicago. While the Giants should be able to run the ball against what's been a soft Packers defense, this could be a will they crack 100 yards passing type of game – especially if Daniel Jones isn't able to go. 

The Packers are coming off of a near-disaster at home against Bailey Zappe (real person), so the blueprint for playing down to their competition is fresh in the mind. The neutral site also takes some of the advantage away from Green Bay, but it's difficult to imagine Aaron Rodgers coming out completely flat two weeks in a row. 

Even against bad teams, this version of the Packers is yet to prove it can pile up points. But I like Green Bay's defense – led by DPOY candidate Rashan Gary – to do the heavy lifting and lead the way to a win in the first ever London matchup between two above-.500 teams. 

The pick: Packers 24 – Giants 14

Sunday Early Games

Pittsburgh Steelers (+14.0) at Buffalo Bills

The Steelers finally pulled the plug on the Mitch Trubisky ordeal, much to the dismay of those advocating for the abolition of the forward pass. The reins are now in the capable, if not slightly small, hands of Kenny Pickett, who played the entire second half last week against the Jets. It's not often that a quarterback throws three picks in a half and virtually everyone comes away feeling much better about the direction of the offense, but it speaks to just how toothless Pittsburgh's passing game had become under Trubisky.

It's fair to assume blowing a double-digit lead to the Jets was not exactly how Pickett envisioned his debut going. Unfortunately, the road may literally not get any easier the rest of the way. Buffalo is a nightmare matchup for any young quarterback, and after this week the Steelers face the Bucs, Dolphins, Eagles, Saints and Bengals. Mike Tomlin's 15-year streak of never finishing below .500 is officially on notice. 

Obviously, this is quite the advantageous spot for the Bills, though there's a case to be made that this is a classic trap game with a matchup at Arrowhead looming in Week 6. Still, even if they get off to a sluggish start, Buffalo has a knack for picking up steam as the game goes along. I can see Pickett doing just enough to keep the Steelers in it for a half, but I'll ride with the Bills to win and cover at home.

The pick: Bills 33 – Steelers 14

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.0) at Cleveland Browns

Are the Chargers good? Is Brandon Staley an average coach, at best? How was LaDainian Tomlinson and his pitch-black visor not a 99 overall in Madden 2005? These are questions I find myself asking multiple times during every Chargers game.

Last week against perhaps the worst team in the league, the Chargers built a 27-7 advantage, only to allow Houston to score 17 unanswered points and narrowly escape with a win. Antics like that have been going on with this franchise for three decades, but this specific version of the Chargers feels like it should be much better than it is.

In some ways, I could say the same thing about the Browns, who sit at 2-2 but could very easily be 4-0. They let yet another game slip away Sunday against Atlanta, thanks in part to allowing more than 200 rushing yards to the likes of create-a-players Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley, among others. The Falcons are displaying an alarming amount of friskiness thus far, so it's not a crushing loss for Cleveland, but the Browns' defense – which, to be fair, was without both Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney in Week 4 – has shown some cracks in the foundation.

This is a much more difficult game to pick than I thought it would be a few weeks ago. These teams met in Week 5 last season and combined for 89 points – 41 of which came in the fourth quarter. I'm not sure we'll get fireworks like that again, but I do think Cleveland will be able to run the ball on the Chargers' defense.

With that said, I'll take Justin Herbert over Jacoby Brissett (controversial opinion) and pick the Chargers to win straight up, while the Browns cover at home.

The pick: Chargers 30 – Browns 28

Houston Texans (+7.0) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Not something I thought I would say at all this season: I love this spot for the Jags. While Jacksonville fell short in a sloppy loss to Philly last week, I came away feeling more confident that this is indeed a playoff-caliber team. The Jags jumped out to a 14-0 lead on the best team in the NFC and only lost by one score – and had a chance to tie the game late – despite Trevor Lawrence honoring Matt Ryan with four lost fumbles, as well as a killer interception deep in Eagles territory.

The loss did feel like a big step back for Lawrence, who was near-perfect against the Colts and Chargers. But I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and chalk that one up to the rainy and windy conditions. The Texans are America's Bounceback Team right now, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Give me the Jags to pile up points at home and get back on track as they enter a favorable portion of their schedule.

The pick: Jaguars 34 – Texans 20

Chicago Bears (+7.0) at Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota held on for a late-second win over the Saints in London, but for the third straight week the Vikings didn't look nearly as polished or convincing as they did against Green Bay in Week 1. On a more positive note, Justin Jefferson was able to get back on track, catching 10 passes for 147 yards and adding a rushing score.

The Vikings' pass defense is a major concern right now, but luckily that can be put on hold for this week. The Bears enter Week 5 having completed just 34 total passes through four games, though Justin Fields is coming in red-hot after erupting for 11 completions and 174 yards against the Giants. 

Fields does make a good point here. On one hand, the "stats" may say that the Bears' passing game isn't effective, but on the other hand, the stats don't matter. I can see the argument for both sides.

I'm taking the Vikings at home to win and cover.

The pick: Vikings 23 – Bears 13

Detroit Lions (+3.0) at New England Patriots

Frick, man. The Lions piled up 45 points and 520 yards of total offense without their two best offensive players and still found a way to lose at home. Detroit failed to force a single punt, as Seattle went 9-of-12 on third down and ripped off 8.8 yards per play overall. The Lions may comfortably lead the NFL in scoring (they've scored twice as many points as the Rams), but they're sitting at 1-3 through four games. Suffice it to say the defense is a frickin' liability, man.

Meanwhile, the Patriots' defense almost led them to an improbable win at Lambeau Field last week, despite their third-string quarterback playing most of the game. At this juncture, it's completely unclear whether Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe or even Brian Hoyer will get the nod on Sunday, but either way it's about as favorable a matchup as the Pats could ask for in this scenario.

The Lions could get Amon-Ra St. Brown back, which makes me think twice, but I'm much more concerned about Detroit's defense slowing down Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. The Lions are allowing 5.6 yards per attempt on the ground. Combine that with a significant coaching mismatch and I understand why the Pats are still favorites even if it's Zappe under center.

New England is breaking out its red throwbacks for this game, so it's actually illegal for me to pick against them.

The pick: Patriots 27 – Lions 21

Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) at New Orleans Saints

Have you talked to your children about Geno Smith completing 77.3% of his passes this season? Are they aware that his QBR is nearly 30 points higher than Russell Wilson's?

In all seriousness, this is a really tricky line. The Saints are battling several key injuries, they're coming off of a London game and it feels like they've been trending in the wrong direction for a full month. And yet, they're nearly a touchdown favorite against a team that just put up 48 points on the road. I can't believe I'm saying this, but shouldn't Geno be getting more respect?

Clearly, the oddsmakers view last week's offensive outburst as a byproduct of facing the league's worst defense. For the most part, I agree with that. New Orleans will present a much tougher test, but we also have to acknowledge that Seattle has some real weapons on offense, and Smith has done a much-better-than-expected job of getting them the ball.

Chances are, the Seattle offense takes a big step back this week, but I'll be approaching this game with caution – particularly if the Saints are still without Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Nonetheless, I'll follow the oddsmakers' lead and take the Saints to win outright, but I can't help but believe Seattle is able to cover.

The pick: Saints 27 – Seahawks 23

Miami Dolphins (-3.0) at New York Jets

With Teddy Bridgewater under center for Miami, this becomes an interesting divisional matchup. The line sat at Dolphins -6.0 prior to Thursday night, but frankly I'm not sure going from Tua to Teddy is that drastic of a downgrade.

For the most part, Bridgewater acquitted himself well after coming on in relief of Tua in Cincinnati. Did he throw a killer interception late in the game that essentially ended the Dolphins' chances? Yes, technically he did do that. But Bridgewater also led two long scoring drives and kept Miami afloat in a game it had a chance to steal on the road against a quality opponent.

For much of the night, the Dolphins looked like the more complete team. And that's coming from someone who's high on the Bengals this year. Had Miami not had a field goal blocked (the Dolphins also missed an extra-point), and had Tua not thrown an awful interception on the second drive of the game, the Dolphins could very well be sitting at 4-0.

On the other side, the Jets are 1-0 in the post-Flacco era, but I remain unconvinced that Zach Wilson is a reliable quarterback. Unsurprisingly, he threw two picks in his debut, but Wilson does deserve credit for leading a game-winning, 65-yard touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter. 

The Jets are definitely a cut above the truly bad teams in the NFL – they may trail only Atlanta in terms of Adjusted Net Friskiness Per Drive – but I like this matchup on both sides of the ball for Miami, which gets an extra three days to prepare.

The pick: Dolphins 31 – Jets 21

Atlanta Falcons (+9.0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Two costly fumbles all but erased the Bucs' chances to win at home against Kansas City, but overall the offense predictably looked much better with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both available for the first time since Week 1. Tom Brady threw as many touchdowns in Week 4 as he did in the first three weeks combined, though Tampa Bay completely abandoned the run – six total attempts – after falling behind.

Atlanta could very well be the second-best team in the NFC South, but they're still a few tiers below Tampa Bay. The Falcons will also be without their best weapon in Cordarrelle Patterson, while they appear to have completely forgotten that Kyle "Poor Man's Alge Crumpler" Pitts is on the roster.

I won't be surprised if Atlanta is able to hang around early, but this has all the makings of a get-right game for Tampa Bay's defense, which felt like it was exposed on Sunday night.

The pick: Buccaneers 31 – Falcons 14

Tennessee Titans (-2.0) at Washington Commanders

I know the lord gives his toughest battles to his strongest soldiers, but I'm not sure I'm ready to watch this game. After flirting with disaster early on, Tennessee is suddenly back to .500 after wins over the Raiders and Colts. Las Vegas is a quality win, but I'm not sure the Colts qualify as such. And had it not been for some flukey plays in the second half, the Titans were very close to handing that game to Indianapolis.

For the most part, the Commanders have been a disaster since beating the Jags in Week 1. They've sunk to dead last in yards per play on the season, though Tennessee's defense looks to be among the worst in the league. These teams feel like they're moving in opposite directions, so I expect the Titans to be a popular pick on the road.

I'll follow that trend, myself, but I don't think Tennessee is good enough to win by more than a field goal.

The pick: Titans 23 – Commanders 20

Sunday Late Games

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers

At this point I'm convinced the three worst teams in the league are the Bears, the Texans and the Panthers. Of those three, the Panthers have the most talent and have been easily the most frustrating to watch. After finding a way to beat the Saints in Week 3, Carolina was up to its old tricks against Arizona last week, putting up 220 yards of total offense and converting only 2-of-10 third down attempts.

Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield is on a mission to shatter the NFL record for most passes batted down. Would the Panthers not be significantly (okay, fine, marginally) more interesting if you swapped Mayfield for Justin Fields?

On the other side, San Francisco looks to be rolling again after embarrassing the Rams on Monday Night Football. Jimmy Garoppolo was much better than Week 3 in Denver, and the Niners' defensive front continually had its way with a completely overmatched Rams' line. Traveling across the country on a short week is never easy, but it's hard to see the 49ers getting tripped up here.

After this game, the Panthers will be 1-27 under Matt Rhule when they allow at least 17 points.

The pick: 49ers 21 – Panthers 12

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Coming off of a win in Carolina, the Cardinals are 2-2 and technically tied for first place in the NFC West. Given how bad Arizona has looked at times this season, they're fairly lucky to be sitting at .500, but this will be the Cards' toughest test since Week 1 against Kansas City.

The Eagles fell behind 14-0 at home against Jacksonville last week but stormed back to remain undefeated. Trevor Lawrence's five turnovers were a big help, but a win is a win – especially in sloppy conditions. The field will be anything but sloppy under the roof in Arizona, where I don't see the Cardinals' defense slowing down Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' multi-faceted attack. 

Quick aside: the Eagles are currently 25/1 at DraftKings to finish the regular season undefeated. That number is a bit too low for my taste, but it should be acknowledged that the Eagles' schedule is buttery soft the rest of the way. They do still have to face Dallas twice, plus Green Bay in late-November (in Philly), but aside from those three games, the Eagles' remaining opponents are: Arizona, Pittsburgh, Houston, Washington, Indianapolis, Tennessee, New York Giants (twice), Chicago and New Orleans.

Without overthinking it, I'll back the Eagles to cover on the road.

The pick: Eagles 33 – Cardinals 24

Dallas Cowboys (+4.5) at Los Angeles Rams

A few days ago, the expectation was that Dak Prescott would be back under center for Dallas in Week 5, but it's since been clarified that Cooper Rush will once again put his perfect 4-0 record on the line.

Going on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs is probably Rush's toughest test yet, but he's passed the previous four with flying colors. The Cowboys aren't asking Rush to do nearly as much as Prescott, but through three starts this season, Rush is yet to commit a turnover while turning in a 73.9 QBR (fourth in the NFL).

The Rams, meanwhile, are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the 49ers on Monday night. The score wasn't all that lopsided, but Los Angeles was thoroughly outplayed on both sides of the ball – and particularly at quarterback and offensive line. The Rams' offensive line has never been a strength, but this year's group looks particularly undersized and unprepared.

While Matthew Stafford was under siege for much of the night, he wasn't particularly accurate even when he had time to throw. Entering Week 5, Stafford leads the NFL with six interceptions, and he easily should've had at least two or three more Monday night.

The Rams always seem to find a way to swing back and forth between looking like a .500 team and a Super Bowl contender on a week-to-week basis, but I can't put my faith in that offensive line in a matchup against this Dallas defense. 

In a minor upset, I'll take Dallas to win outright at SoFi Stadium.

The pick: Cowboys 20 – Rams 17

Sunday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.0) at Baltimore Ravens

Normally, I'd argue hard for Texans-Jags, but even I will admit this is the game of the week and a game that could have major long-term implications in the AFC North. The Bengals notched a good win at home against the Dolphins, but it wasn't quite as convincing as it should've been. It still feels like Cincy is yet to have one of those is this the most dangerous offense in the league? type of games. I'm of the belief that those performances will be coming, but there's clearly still something a little off with this offense.

The Ravens' defense has been a clear cut below the dominant units of the past, so this could be a good spot for Zac Taylor to lean more toward airing the ball out, rather than continuing to force-feed Joe Mixon. Cincinnati also has the decided rest advantage after playing on Thursday night last week.

With all of that said, I'm not picking against the Ravens at home. Lamar Jackson has been nails in primetime games – especially at home – and he'll be far and away the best quarterback the Bengals have faced this season. Cincinnati will be able to move the ball against this leaky Baltimore secondary, but I'm not sure I fully trust the Bengals' defense to slow down Jackson. 

Give me the Ravens to win a back-and-forth, high-scoring game at home.

The pick: Ravens 34 – Bengals 30

Monday Night Football

Las Vegas Raiders (+7.0) at Kansas City Chiefs

Against Tampa Bay in Week 4, Kansas City had exactly the type of convincing, offensive explosion we needed to see after a massive letdown game in Indianapolis. The Chiefs still don't really have a true No. 1 receiver, but they have the best tight end in the game surrounded by a capable cast of complementary options.

The Raiders are a better team than their 1-3 record would imply, but the Chiefs have had their number of late, including winning last year's matchups by a combined score of 89 to 23. Las Vegas is improved enough on offense to prevent a lopsided result, but the Raiders won't be able to run the ball as effectively as they did last week against Denver.

In a game that sets the table for a monster Bills-Chiefs showdown in Week 6, give me Kansas City to win and cover with relative ease.

The pick: Chiefs 35 – Raiders 24