This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week wasn't bad -- 9-6-1 overall, a winning best bet (Ravens) and 4-1 in the Super Contest. I'm four games under .500 with a week to do, so an 11-5 week on the way out would be nice.
This week, I especially like the Bengals, Bears, Jets and Giants.
EARLY GAMES
Browns -2.5 at Bengals
I think these are roughly equal teams, and I like that the Bengals have locked up the No. 1 pick in the draft and can go all out. Take the home dog.
Bengals 23 - 20
Bears +1 at Vikings
The Vikings are locked into the sixth seed, so I'd expect them to pull their starters at some point. The Bears are playing for pride and are getting a point.
Bears 20 - 16
Falcons pick 'em at Buccaneers
I see these as roughly equal teams -- if Mike Evans or Chris Godwin were healthy, I'd actually prefer the Bucs on a neutral field. As it stands, I'll still take the home team as a pick 'em.
Buccaneers 27 - 24
Saints -13 at Panthers
This is where I set the line. The Saints are playing for a first round bye, while Will Grier had a tough time last week against the Colts. It's a massive number on the road, but I'll lay the wood.
Saints 33 - 13
Jets +1.5 at Bills
The Bills are locked into the fifth seed, so I don't see why they'd play their starters the whole game or
Last week wasn't bad -- 9-6-1 overall, a winning best bet (Ravens) and 4-1 in the Super Contest. I'm four games under .500 with a week to do, so an 11-5 week on the way out would be nice.
This week, I especially like the Bengals, Bears, Jets and Giants.
EARLY GAMES
Browns -2.5 at Bengals
I think these are roughly equal teams, and I like that the Bengals have locked up the No. 1 pick in the draft and can go all out. Take the home dog.
Bengals 23 - 20
Bears +1 at Vikings
The Vikings are locked into the sixth seed, so I'd expect them to pull their starters at some point. The Bears are playing for pride and are getting a point.
Bears 20 - 16
Falcons pick 'em at Buccaneers
I see these as roughly equal teams -- if Mike Evans or Chris Godwin were healthy, I'd actually prefer the Bucs on a neutral field. As it stands, I'll still take the home team as a pick 'em.
Buccaneers 27 - 24
Saints -13 at Panthers
This is where I set the line. The Saints are playing for a first round bye, while Will Grier had a tough time last week against the Colts. It's a massive number on the road, but I'll lay the wood.
Saints 33 - 13
Jets +1.5 at Bills
The Bills are locked into the fifth seed, so I don't see why they'd play their starters the whole game or be laying points. Take the Jets.
Jets 23 - 17
Dolphins +15.5 at Patriots
The Patriots need to win to lock up a first-round bye, so they'll go all out. The Dolphins are scrappy, but they're coming off an overtime game and could be worn out. That said, I made this line only 13.5, so I'll take the points.
Patriots 31 - 17
Packers -12.5 at Lions
The Packers can be the No. 1 seed if they win and the 49ers lose. The Lions are terrible, but they're at home, the Packers are coming off a big win on a short week, and this line is massive. Take the points.
Packers 27 - 16
Chargers +8.5 at Chiefs
I made this line 9.5, so I'm on the Chiefs, who are still playing for a potential first-round bye (in the unlikely event of a Patriots upset.) Lay the wood.
Chiefs 31 - 20
LATE GAMES
Titans -3.5 at Texans
Bill O'Brien says he's playing everyone, but I don't believe him. The Titans can get into the playoffs with a win, so I'm laying the wood.
Titans 27 - 17
Colts -3.5 Jaguars
The Colts throttled the Panthers last week, but Gardner Minshew is better than Will Grier, and three and a half on the road is little too much, Take the home dog.
Colts 26 - 23
Redskins +11 at Cowboys
The Cowboys could still get into the playoffs if the Eagles lose in New York, so they'll be motivated. But Case Keenum is probably an upgrade over Dwayne Haskins, especially if Terry McLaurin is able to get through the concussion protocol. Take the points.
Cowboys 28 - 20
Eagles -4.5 at Giants
The Eagles needed overtime to beat the Giants a few weeks ago, and that was with Eli Manning under center. Now they have to travel to New York and face the much more nimble Daniel Jones. Take the Giants.
Giants 27 - 26
Steelers -2 at Ravens
The Steelers could get into the playoffs if the Titans lose, so they'll be going all out. The Ravens have locked up home field throughout the playoffs, so they'll sit their key players. Lay the wood.
Steelers 20 - 13
Cardinals +7.5 at Rams
If Kyler Murray plays, I like the Cardinals getting more than a touchdown. As of now, it looks like he'll go, so I'll take the points.
Rams 27 - 20
Raiders +3.5 at Broncos
I made this line just three as the Raiders still have a long shot chance to make the playoffs (Steelers and Titans have to lose.) The Broncos defense is good, but this should be a close game.
Raiders 24 - 23
SUNDAY NIGHT
49ers -3 at Seahawks
I made this line exactly minus three as the Niners are the better team and playing for home field throughout the playoffs, but winning in Seattle is tough, and the Seahawks should have Jadeveon Clowney back. It's a coin flip for me, but I'll take the Niners.
49ers 30 - 24
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Last week, I went 9-6-1, won my best bet (the Ravens), and went 4-1 in the Super Contest. I'm now 115-119-6 on the year, 8-8 on best bets and 39-39-2 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.
