Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 5

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Thank God for the Lions cover on Monday night. I hated backing them even though I knew it was the right thing to do, and miraculously they came through. Perhaps "miraculously" seems hyberbolic on a 50/50 ATS proposition, but after the day I had - Andrew Luck scratched after I locked the pick in and Zach Hocker missing the chip shot to give Dallas the cover, being on the Dolphins, the 49ers, the Eagles and the Texans, among other losers - the Lions cover restored my faith to an extent. Actually "restored my faith" isn't quite correct. It's more like it undermined my certainly that losing against the spread was a matter of destiny, and whatever side I was on would move mountains to achieve it.

The win brought me to 5-10 on the week, which is better than 4-11, and when you're in a hole, every victory counts. I am still 3-1 on best bets (I had none on last week's terrible slate), but I do have some this week. I feel strongly about three favorites, the Giants, Eagles and Bengals.

The coin flip games - those that gave me the hardest time - were the Broncos-Raiders, Packers-Rams, Patriots-Cowboys and Cardinals-Lions.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Colts pick 'em at Texans

I don't like that the Texans are a desperate animal after last week's loss, but with Andrew Luck back, I think the Colts win a tight game. Back Indy.

Colts 23 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Jaguars +3 at Buccaneers

Blake Bortles is what the Bucs hope Jameis Winston doesn't become (and he's on his way.) Still, I like the Bucs, who were playing even with the Panthers until missed field goals and the flukiest fumble bounce in NFL history pulled the game out of reach. Back Tampa.

Buccaneers 27 - 23

Bills -2.5 at Titans

The Giants handled the Bills fairly easily, but I expect Buffalo to bounce back against a weak Ken Whisenhunt coached team. Take the road favorite.

Bills 20 - 17

Browns +6.5 at Ravens

Going by what we've seen so far this year, this line is too big, but it's less than seven, the Ravens have historically been tough at home, and I think their defense shows up. (Who the Ravens are going to target in the passing game I have no idea.) Back Baltimore.

Ravens 24 - 17

Redskins +7.5 at Falcons

The Falcons are improved with new coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, but they were trailing by double-digits their first three games, and I'll keep fading them until they stop covering. Back the Redskins.

Falcons 27 - 23

Bears +9.5 at Chiefs

The Bears got their win out of the way, and the Chiefs have been beaten down by the best teams in the league (Broncos, Packers and Bengals.) This line looks big, but I think KC will rough them up in Arrowhead. Lay the wood.

Chiefs 31 - 13

Saints +4.5 at Eagles

The Saints got their win out of the way (after letting Brandon Weeden drive 80 yards on them in the closing minutes), and I expect the Eagles to crush them outdoors. Sam Bradford got it together in the second half against Washington, and I think the offense will pick things up. Back Philly.

Eagles 34 - 17

Rams +9.5 at Packers

I had a lot of trouble with this game. The Packers are pretty much auto-back at home, but between Todd Gurley's emergence, the Packers soft run defense and the Rams pass rush, this game could be relatively tight. Still, I'm taking Green Bay who pulls away late.

Packers 34 - 24

Seahawks +3 at Bengals

This looks like a reputation line to me. The Bengals are good in nearly every phase, and the Seattle offensive line might be the worst in the league. Plus, even the great Seattle teams were not nearly as good on the road. Lay the wood.

Bengals 24 - 13

LATE GAMES

Cardinals -2.5 at Lions

I'd take the Lions without a second thought at three, but at 2.5, it's a tougher call. Still, I expect a desperate Lions squad to get the passing game going, and keep it close enough. Whether or not they botch it at the end is really the only question. Back Detroit.

Lions 28 - 27

Patriots -9 at Cowboys

My instinct was to take the Patriots off the bye against Brandon Weeden, but this is too many points. Back the Cowboys.

Patriots 30 - 23

Denver -5 at Raiders

I liked Denver initially but both Dalton Del Don and Ben Mankiewicz (the two guys with whom I pick games) liked the Raiders at home. I'm torn here because the Raiders have killed a lot of survivor pools over the last few seasons with home upsets, and Derek Carr is better in his own venue. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the home dog. Back Oakland.

Broncos 28 - 24

SUNDAY NIGHT

49ers +7 at Giants

The Giants might not be world-beaters, but the 49ers are arguably the worst team in the league, and Colin Kaepernick has totally checked out. Lay the wood.

Giants 30 - 13

MONDAY NIGHT

Steelers +3 at Chargers

The Steelers defense isn't good, and the offense with Michael Vick is a work in progress. I don't have much faith in the Chargers, but they should be laying more than the standard field goal at home. Back San Diego.

Chargers 27 - 23

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I went 5-10 in Week 4 to bring my record to 25-37-1 on the year. I'm 3-1 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.