Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 9

After losing the Thursday game and the early London game, I was bracing myself for a rough week, but it actually turned out well - 9-6, though I abstained from making any best bets.

This week's slate came to me more easily. I'm not sure there's a correlation between that and actually doing well, but it's more enjoyable to write up the games at least.

My best bets are the Giants, Buccaneers and Patriots. I reserve the right to add or subtract from that in the comments.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Saints -2.5 at Panthers

The Saints played well at home against the Packers, but I find it odd to see them as road favorites against an up-and-down Panthers squad. Back Carolina.

Panthers 27 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Chargers +1.5 at Dolphins

The Dolphins were outplayed in the first half at Jacksonville, but got bailed out by two pick-sixes. The Chargers are the better team and are getting points. Back San Diego.

Chargers 24 - 23

Jaguars +11 at Bengals

I don't know what to make of the Bengals, but A.J. Green could be back, and they typically play better at home. I'll lay the wood here.

Bengals 27 - 13

Buccaneers +6.5 at Browns

I don't respect the Browns. They lost to the Jaguars and were only up 9-6 on the Raiders while Oakland was driving before a Darren McFadden fumble in the third quarter. The Bucs can hang with them. Back Tampa.

Browns 23 - 20

Redskins +2.5 at Vikings

This was one of the harder games of the slate for me. I think the Redskins are a cut above the league's doormats, Robert Griffin might be back and Jay Gruden showed courage in his playcalling and decision-making Monday night. But on the road off the emotional, nationally-televised win, I have to fade Washington. Back the Vikings.

Vikings 26 - 21

Eagles -2 at Texans

My gut says Eagles here, but my brain says Texans. Until the Eagles defense shows it can stop someone other than Eli Manning, I'll take Houston at home.

Texans 24 - 21

Jets +9.5 at Chiefs

The Chiefs had no problem covering a big number last week, but that makes them a good sell-high and the Jets a buy-low. Back New York.

Chiefs 27 - 20

Cardinals +3.5 at Cowboys

The Cardinals are outperforming their peripheral stats, while Dallas is rock solid, but I don't believe in the Cowboys defense, and Carson Palmer should be close to 100 percent now. I'll take the points.

Cowboys 27 - 24

LATE GAMES

Rams +10 at 49ers

No one wants to take the Rams here, so they're probably the "value," but I can't do it. The 49ers specialize in crushing doormats the last couple years, and I think they'll do it this week off the bye at home. Back San Francisco.

49ers 34 - 17

Broncos -3 at Patriots

The Patriots are especially tough at home and are firing on all cylinders. This game should be a pick 'em, so I'll happily take the three. Back New England.

Patriots 31 - 30

Raiders +15 at Seahawks

The Raiders are a doormat, no doubt, but the Seahawks aren't the team that should be laying 15 these days, as the Raiders will compete with them at the line of scrimmage. Take the points.

Seahawks 27 - 16

SUNDAY NIGHT

Ravens pick 'em at Steelers

This strikes me as a 50/50 game, and it's a pick 'em, so I'm just throwing a dart here. I suppose the Steelers are a sell high off the Colts win, but they're not even laying a point at home. Still, I'll take the Ravens who have the better defense even without Jimmy Smith and a kicker who can hit from long range in the waning seconds.

Ravens 27 - 24

MONDAY NIGHT

Colts -3 at Giants

Like the Cowboys, the Colts defense was exposed last week, and I expect the Giants to pick up where the Steelers left off, though obviously not to that extent. Take the points.

Giants 30 - 27

I went 9-6 in Week 8 to put me at 70-49-2 on the season. Best bets are 10-10-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.