Beating the Book: NFL Wild Card Weekend Spread Picks

Welcome to the Wild Card Weekend edition of Beating the Book!

After a red-hot Week 17, suffice it to say things came crashing back down in Week 18. We knew we were up against a ton of unpredictability, but even so, finishing out the regular season with a 5-11 ATS week – and going just 8-8 SU – will go down as a disappointment.

We started off with a 2-0 mark on Saturday before getting crushed on the Sunday slate. Green Bay, Washington, Buffalo and Kansas City pulling back dealt some tough blows, while we took the bait on big favorites in Atlanta and Tampa Bay. The late window wasn't any kinder, as a failed two-point conversion sent us to an L on Seattle -5.5, while the 49ers' defense completely quit in a 47-24 loss in Arizona. 

Nevertheless, we finished the season 140-128-4 ATS, hitting at roughly a 52.2 percent clip. While I certainly feel like we left plenty of wins on the table, we'll live with that mark heading into the postseason.

Of course, we have only a six-game slate for Wild Card Weekend, which kicks off with a pair of matchups on Saturday. Chargers-Texans – perhaps the most obvious Saturday afternoon game of all time – is the afternoon game, followed by the third meeting between the Steelers and Ravens in the late window. 

On Sunday, we start off with Broncos-Bills before moving on to Packers-Eagles and Commanders-Bucs. Finally, we finish out with Vikings-Rams on Monday night – one of four regular-season rematches on Wild Card Weekend.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Wild Card slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 18:

• Ravens -17.5 vs. Browns: Who among us could've imagined that the Dorian Thompson-Robinson/Bailey Zappe platoon did not work out?
• Jaguars +5.0 at Colts: The Jags gave up 429 yards of offense but were able to force enough field goals to send this game to overtime.

Worst calls of Week 18:

• Pretty much the entire slate
• Vikings +3.0 at Lions: Top to bottom, Minnesota played probably its worst game of the season at the worst possible time.
• Chiefs +10.5 at Broncos: At the time of publication, we expected the Chiefs to play at least some meaningful veterans. Instead, KC threw out a JV team and didn't even reach 100 yards of total offense.

Last week: 5-11 ATS; 8-8 SU; best bet lost (WAS -4.5)

On the season: 140-128-4 ATS; 188-84 SU; 5-11-2 best bets

Saturday Doubleheader

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans

Spread: Chargers -2.5

Total: 42.5

Easy call by the schedule-makers to place this in the Saturday afternoon window. Literally every Wild Card game in Texans history has kicked off at 3:30pm ET on Saturday.

That's not to say this game doesn't carry some intrigue, but the Chargers aren't exactly a star-laden roster, while the Texans have been mired in an extended slump that dates back a couple months. Houston did get a feel-good win over Tennessee in Week 18, but it's tough to put much stock into a game in which C.J. Stroud only played the first series.

Meanwhile, the Chargers got off to a slow start against Vegas but turned it on in the second half to cruise to a 34-20 victory – their third straight week with at least 34 points.

Heading out on the road, the Chargers could be vulnerable against a strong Houston defense, but the Texans' offense is the biggest concern here. With Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs done for the season, Houston is essentially down to Nico Collins as its only real weapon in the passing game. The Texans' ground game has also been suspect of late, with Joe MIxon averaging just 54.9 yards per game over his last seven (not including Week 18).

I expect both defenses to control the game, so I don't think we see many explosive plays on either side. Houston should be able to get enough stops to make this close, but I have more faith in Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh right now than I do Stroud and DeMeco Ryans.

The pick: Chargers 20 – Texans 17

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -9.5

Total: 43.5

This will be the third meeting between these two AFC North rivals in the last nine weeks. Pittsburgh took the first one, forcing Baltimore into three uncharacteristic turnovers and grinding out an 18-16 victory. In Week 16, the Ravens answered back, putting up 34 points in what turned into a three-score victory.

After trouncing the Browns in Week 18, the Ravens roll into the postseason with plenty of momentum, having scored at least 30 points in four straight and in 11 of their last 14 games. On the other side, Pittsburgh's offense has crumbled, managing 17 or fewer points in each of their last four games – all SU losses. 

The way Pittsburgh is trending, it's tough to envision the Steelers going on the road and winning this game, but I do think there's a reasonable chance that we get a low-scoring contest that could be decided by a score. Historically, these teams tend to play games with totals in the 30s, so that Week 16 result – 51 combined points – is an anomaly.

The Ravens have a key injury to Zay Flowers, which could remove their most dangerous weapon in the passing game. Flowers is considered day-to-day, but my assumption is that he won't be out there.

Baltimore should still be able to win fairly comfortably, but with the number touching double-digits, we'll take Pittsburgh to do just enough to pull out a cover.

The pick: Ravens 24 – Steelers 16

Sunday Slate

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -8.5

Total: 47.5

One of the biggest surprises of the season, Denver heads into the playoffs feeling like it's playing with house money, to some degree. No one expects the Broncos to win, and even if they get blown out, it won't change the fact that Bo Nix's rookie year has been a smashing success.

On the other side, the Bills are gearing up for another attempt at a Super Bowl run, which will begin by taking care of business at home. With the NFL's No. 1 defense by EPA, the Broncos are a formidable opponent, but we're still talking about a rookie quarterback making his first career postseason start in sub-freezing temperatures on the road. I don't expect Denver to be able to run the ball effectively, and if this turns into Nix needing to make plays in obvious passing situations, I like Buffalo's chances.

It's possible the Bills could get off to a slow start after resting many of its regulars last week, but the Buffalo offense should have the bigger edge. Denver is just 1-7 SU against teams with a winning record this season (I refuse to count Week 18) and allowed over 26 points per game in those seven losses. 

The pick: Bills 31 – Broncos 17

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -4.5

Total: 45.5

We have some injury situations to keep an eye on here, beginning with Jalen Hurts, who technically remains in concussion protocol but should be cleared in the coming days. Outside of Hurts, though, Philly is carrying a mostly healthy roster into the postseason.

The same cannot be said for Green Bay, which has been down multiple defensive starters for the last few weeks and lost Christian Watson for the season in last week's brutal loss to Chicago. We know for sure that Jaire Alexander isn't coming back, but the hope is that Green Bay can get at least one of Evan Williams and Quay Walker active for Sunday. Meanwhile, Jordan Love is on the injury report after taking a hit to the hand/elbow in Week 18, and while the expectation is that he'll play, there's a chance he may not be 100 percent. Love struggled against Chicago before being lifted and didn't look great for most of Green Bay's Week 17 loss in Minnesota.

For a number of reasons, I lean pretty heavily toward the Eagles here. Green Bay has done nothing but beat up on average-to-bad teams this season, while going 1-5 in its division and 0-5 against Detroit, Minnesota and Philly. There's a case to be made that the Packers have played below their talent level in those big games, but I'm not comfortable asking Green Bay to flip a switch that I'm not sure actually exists.

Watson has been a frustrating player since the Packers drafted him in 2021, but his absence will loom large, as Green Bay doesn't really have another true deep threat. In theory, Jayden Reed could be that guy, but his production has noticeably tapered off of late. Since the Packers' Week 10 bye, Reed is averaging just 29.6 receiving yards per game.

If there's a case for Green Bay, it could be that Hurts basically has not played in three weeks. There's been enough time since the concussion that I don't see that as a concern, but Hurts could be a bit rusty, and the Eagles made a habit of slow starts for much of the regular season.

Still, with the injuries on the Packers' side, and the Eagles' elite defense, I don't see Green Bay finding a way to pull the upset. 

The pick: Eagles 27 – Packers 20

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Bucs -3.0

Total: 50.5

From a watchability standpoint, this could very well be the best game of the weekend. It's another rematch, but these teams met all the way back in Week 1, when the Commanders entered the year with a win total of 6.5.

With the presumptive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels, hitting the ground running, Washington quickly ascended from fun young team to legitimate playoff threat to a 12-win outfit that finished the season as a top-five offense.

Tampa Bay won a playoff game a year ago but was still viewed as a borderline-playoff team coming into the year. Despite losing Chris Godwin midway, the Bucs' offense has continued to roll over opponents on a near-weekly basis. Like Washington, Tampa also finished as a top-five offense, thanks in large part to easily the best campaign of Baker Mayfield's career. The Bucs have also developed a lethal running game (sixth in EPA) behind Bucky Irving and one of the NFL's better offensive lines.

In many ways, this is a strength on strength matchup. Both offenses are elite, both teams can run the ball, and both quarterbacks can make plays outside of the pocket. As the total implies, we should see plenty of points, and figuring out the defensive advantages will be the key.

Tampa Bay has been the better defense against the run, but the Bucs rank 26th against the pass, due in large part to a series of injuries in the secondary. Heading into Wild Card Weekend, the Bucs could be without three or four starters. Down the stretch, Tampa Bay was able to weather those injuries, but facing the Giants, Panthers (twice), Raiders, Cowboys and Saints after their Week 11 bye certainty helped. With that said, Tampa Bay should get plenty of credit for blowing out the Chargers in LA – and holding them to just 206 yards of offense – in Week 15.

Washington, meanwhile, has endured some up-and-down performances, but the Commanders will ultimately carry a five-game winning streak into the playoffs. 

As much as I'd like to see Jayden Daniels take on the Lions' defense next weekend, we won't go as far as to predict a SU win here. But I fully expect Washington to be ready for the challenge and keep this game within a field goal.

The pick: Bucs 28 – Commanders 26

Monday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Vikings -1.0

Total: 46.5

Fittingly, we cap off what should be an excellent five-day stretch of football – both pro and college – with the tightest spread of the week. After opening Vikings -2.5, it's moved to 

Of course, the Rams already hold a SU win over the Vikings in Week 8, and Minnesota playing perhaps its worst game of the season on Sunday in Detroit is still fresh in the mind of bettors. I don't want to hold that one result against the Vikings, but it was a bit jarring to see Kevin O'Connell get out-coached. And as far as Sam Darnold is concerned, that was not the kind of performance he needed heading into his first career playoff game.

On the Rams side, we can essentially toss out Week 18, as LA opted to rest its stars and let the chips fall where they may, seeding-wise. Clearly, the Rams were OK with taking on the loser of Vikings-Lions, as opposed to welcoming the Commanders or Packers to SoFi this weekend. With an extra week of rest, Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams should all be at full strength, though the Rams' offense didn't exactly finish the year firing on all cylinders.

After putting 44 on the Bills in Week 14, Los Angeles scored just 12, 19 and 13 points, respectively, in wins over the Niners, Jets and Cardinals. Still, the Rams will go into this matchup feeling like they have advantages at quarterback and head coach, even if the gap between Sean McVay and O'Connell is slim. 

This is as close to a toss-up for me as it gets, but we'll take the Vikings to avenge the Week 8 loss and bounce back from a major letdown in Week 18.

The pick: Vikings 26 – Rams 24