This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 3
Anything happening in Chicago worth talking about? Nah, just a quiet week between games; or, as Chicago writer Jon Greenberg put it, "The Bears are nearing DEFCON White Sox." And it is only Week 3. Yikes. It appears I GROSSLY overestimated the growth of Justin Fields and the Bears organization as a whole as they looked horrendous last week in Tampa. I will try to sift through all of the happenings this week and see if we can find some winners from the Bears' task of traveling to Kansas City to take on the Champs. Chiefs by 106? Maybe......
Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds for Week 3
The Chiefs opened as an 11.5-point favorites and the line got as high as 13.5 before settling in at the 12.5 that is universally available. The Moneyline currently sits as high as +570 for Chicago at FanDuel and as low as -650 for KC at BetMGM. The total opened at 49.5 and dipped as low as 47.5 before settling at the 48/48.5 mark. My interpretation is the fluctuation has come from the public reacting to the news of discontent from Fields and the organization and the sharps correcting the market to be somewhere in the middle. Honestly, is any of this surprising to anyone who follows the Bears? The Bears fans I know would say "absolutely not." I feel the original lines are the true and the value is skewed toward the Bears and the under. I'm not saying I recommend those two plays, but that's where I see the value.
Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Picks This Week
There is 0% chance of me advising the Moneyline in either direction, so lets skip right by that. The side and total are different stories. As I said, I see value in the under with it ticking upward, but do I really trust the Chicago defense to advise an under against most teams, much less one of the most potent offenses in the league? That's a hard no. I do see a 48 at DraftKings currently and if I were forced, I'd lean to the over at that number despite the slight value in the other direction. My top play for this game is going to be on Chicago getting 12.5. First, it is a contrarian view and, to me, contrarian = value. I feel like EVERYONE is talking about Chicago being a circus in a dumpster fire on a train about to wreck, combined with the fact that the number for every Chiefs game, particularly at home, is inflated by public bias. This is backed by real numbers: KC is just 14-17 ATS as home favorites since 2020. In theory, the Bears offense has the ability to be their best defense. If the squeaky wheel theory holds here, Chicago will simplify the offense and go back to student body left and right with Fields rushing far more than the 6.5 carries he's averaging so far. A greater focus on the run game keeps the clock running and limits the KC offense. And let's remember, the Chiefs aren't exactly humming on offense right now. Maybe the Chicago D is their elixir, but these are still professionals and this number is huge. This week is basically Chicago's season. Play tough and there's hope; get blown out and all hope is lost. I'll go with the bad but desperate team over the better but overvalued one.
Bears @ Chiefs Best Bet: Bears +12.5 (-110) universally
Bears @ Chiefs Prediction
KC has started incredibly slow in their first two games and my guess is that will be an early emphasis by Andy Reid. Despite some chunk plays between the 20s, the Chiefs manage only two field goals and exit the first quarter leading just 6-0 despite dominating the stats. The Bears offense settles in and starts to slow the game down with a methodical drive and adjustments to run right at Chris Jones to take his elite edge rush skills out of play. Their patience pays off with a TD, but a Mahomes-to-Kelce TD gives KC a 13-7 lead heading into the half. Chicago continues its grind into the third quarter while managing to keep the Chiefs at bay as the teams exchange field goals for a 16-10 Chiefs advantage heading into the fourth. Statistically, the fourth quarter has been Chicago's best quarter while it has been a struggle for the Chiefs and the Bears start to make the hometown fans sweat after an early TD drive gives Chicago a 17-16 lead. However, a quick strike from Mahomes gives the Chiefs the lead back at 23-17. After the Bears turn it over on downs, the Chiefs ice the game with a fourth Harrison Butker FG and a final score of 26-17.