Circa Millions NFL Week 14 Picks

You know the season disappeared when you're on your last week of byes. It's been overall a solid NFL year for me, not as good as I was hoping for, but not as bad as it could have been. We have one more month left, so let's finish strong. Good luck to everybody in fantasy as well, fighting for your playoff lives. 

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Rams | Total: 49.5

We have a great matchup in the game-of-the-week window. One team is jostling for the top seed and the bye in the AFC, while the other is trying to hang on for dear life to punch a ticket to the dance. Buffalo has played a lot better than I (and most) people thought they would. Josh Allen has earned the right to be pacing the MVP race. Both teams need this game, but there can only be one winner.

The next seven days are almost make or break for Buffalo (and Allen's MVP bid). Obviously they play the Rams on Sunday, but next week they set voyage to the Motor City to play Battle Royale with the Lions. After that, they'll see the Pats twice and Jets. They're currently one game back of KC for the one seed in the conference. And the Chiefs have a much tougher road with the Chargers, Browns, Texans, Steelers, and Broncos.

Offensively, this could be another one of those 30 beans for Buffalo with LAR's defense is allowing over 24 PPG. In case you were wondering, the Bills have scored 30+ in six straight games, and of course are fresh off the 35-10 beating they threw San Fran in the snow last week. The area where I expect Buffalo to excel, like most teams, is via the run game. The Rams have one of the worst run D units in football, allowing 144.2 YPG (5th worst). 

An explosive back in James Cook may cook this defense like he did the 49ers' last week in his 14/107/1 performance. The thing of it is, Buffalo has formed their own clique in the backfield with Ray Davis, Ty Johnson, and even Josh Allen taking turns. 

Just for reference, the Rams D allowed 112 yards to Alvin Kamara last week and 255 (and two tuddies) to Saquon Barkley the previous week. The passing game hasn't seen as much flair as usual, but it's been extremely effective. Allen's 20 TD/5 INT ratio is very strong, but the 2,691 pass yards (15th) is a result of limited volume. The Bills can definitely move the ball against the Rams secondary that's bottom half of the league. 

The Rams offense still got it, baby. Big Daddy Stafford running point on the offense with Kyren Williams, Kupp Daddy, and Puka is gas. It's probably the best quartet in football, and when its clicking on all cylinders, it's almost impossible to stop. The 21.2 PPG is a bit misleading since the offense has only been together for about half of their games. It's not been as effective as you would hope lately, but there's still time to get it together. The Buffalo defense is very good, maybe not what it was a few years ago, but definitely a tough unit. Like the Rams, the best way to attack this defense is on the ground where they allow almost 122 YPG. Kyren will need to have a big game for them to have a chance. 

The Rams schedule is difficult the rest of the way with the Bills, 49ers, Jets, Cardinals, and Seahawks left. To make the playoffs, the Ramily will probably gave to win the division, as the Wild Card is loaded with the 10-win Vikings, 9-win Packers, and an 8-5 Commanders squad. Even though they're only a game back in the NFC West, the jumbled division is going to be a dog fight until the end with so many inter-division matchups happening in the last few weeks of the season. The Rams cannot afford to slip up. 

Disregarding my second favorite betting number of 3.5, I like Buffalo in this spot. Playing much better football with an identity on both sides of the rock. We've notice the Rams have fallen flat on their faces a few times recently when they've had the rest advantage at home with the other team having to fly across the country to see them. There's been some sharp money coming down on LAR, bringing the line from 5.5 to 3.5, but I've been burned on this same type of scenario. This seems to be a Bills spot.

Pick: Bills -3.5 -110

Circa Million Week 14 Bets

It's the final quarter of the season with 300K in payouts. Daddy needs a taste of that bread, so we gotta get off to a great start.

Pick 1: Bills -3.5

See Above.

Pick 2: Bucs -7

Preseason, Tampa was my NFC South pick. And they still are. There's a lot of butter matchups for the Bucs to close out the season. They lollygagged last weekend against Carolina and it almost cost them. I don't think they make the same mistake twice. Seven points is a lot, but this LV offense isn't that great outside of Brock Bowers. And their secondary is weak. The Bucs should slice through this defense like Wonder Bread.

Pick 3: Eagles -12.5

I've done fairly well laying monster numbers with the Lions this season. The Eagles are in the same class as those Lions right now, and against a bad team with a great matchup, they should lay the hammer down. Carolina has played a lot better lately, but Philly's defense is aggressive with studs at every level. Plus the Panthers defense couldn't stop a nose bleed. I'd be surprised if Philly doesn't win by at least 21.

Pick 4: Cardinals -3

I missed this game last time between Zona and Seattle. The Cards were terrible and didn't even score a TD. Now, they're at home, and I think it's hard to beat a quality divisional opponent twice. Seattle is without Kenny Walker, which means their run game could be set back having to allow Zach Charbonnet to be the bell cow. Definitely expecting a tight one here, but Zona needs this game a lot more. For people looking to bet the Cards here, take them to win the division at +180.

Pick 5: Chiefs -4

There's 3.5's all over the joint. We know KC isn't good at covering big spreads, but they're usually better at covering smaller ones. The Bolts have been much improved this season, showing so much good. But they have yet to beat a good team. The only win they have against a winning team is the Broncos back in October. It's basically back to you can't bet against Mahomes.

Enjoy the week, everybody!