This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks This Week: Circa Millions Contest Plays, Week 8
Week 7 was pretty strong overall. And now we're on to Week 8. The season is moving quickly, as it usually tends to do. The board isn't as desirable as it's been in other weeks, but we still have a job to do, so let's hunt for the best looks.
Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins (-4.5) | Total: 46.5
Welcome back, Tua. It's been a long and miserable six weeks for Miami fans without their QB1. The QB play has been so bad that it's rendered two of the biggest play makers in the NFL virtually useless. Returning for Miami, Tua will be going up against that frisky Arizona team coming off a short week.
Miami might be back. Tua barely has a sample size this year, playing less than 1.5 games. We know when he's under center, this entire offense changes. That's what happens when Mike McDaniel designs a system around one guy. The other good news is this high flying offense will be facing a Zona defense that's quite frankly not good. The Cards have allowed the sixth most yards this season (376.4 YPG), eighth most points (25.4 PPG), and are bottom half of the league in sacks. To boot, both their pass and rush defense is in the bottom eight of the league. With a track team for an offense, Miami should feast.
I pretty much say this every week, so if you have followed me at all the last few years then you know what I'm about to say. Arizona is the highest variance team in the NFL. When they show up, they're one of the best teams in the league. When they don't, they're one of the worst. Against the good teams, the defense hasn't shown up. They allowed 34 points to both Green Bay and Buffalo. 42 points to Washington. And somehow managed to keep Detroit to 20 and San Fran to 23. Last season, Miami averaged 29.2 PPG, the second best mark in the NFL. It goes without saying they should struggle against Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane in this spot.
Offensively, the Cards haven't exactly lived up to the offensive hype for most of the year. They have managed 24 points or more three times, but the last couple weeks it's been less than 20. Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison have rarely been on the same page. Outside of Week 2's blow out against the Rams, Maserati Marv has been held to under 65 yards in every game this year. To make matters worse, the new Call of Duty just dropped.
You may be scratching your head on what I just said, but Murray has notoriously been less effective throughout his career when the new edition of COD drops. At first, it seemed like a funny and wild speculation, but people actually started doing research on it. Sort of like how James Harden's play was horrible when whichever team he played for would visit cities that had great strip clubs. In his career, Murray is just 7-20 after a new COD release.
Even if you think it sounds silly, maybe this will be more your speed. The Dolphins secondary has been nails this season allowing the fewest pass yard per game (154.5). Their 21.5 PPG on defense also sits in the middle of the pack. Of course, some of that has been a product of their schedule, facing Drake Maye, Anthony Richardson, and the Titans. Nonetheless, Arizona's offense has just been too shaky this season to be relied on in this spot.
With the Tua return being announced, this number toom steam from 3.5 to 4.5, which is getting dangerously close to a Royal Mint spot. For the time being though, this is a Dolphins spot for me. Expecting a big game from this offense, which should keep a lot of pressure on Arizona all day long. Give me the 305.
Pick: Dolphins -4.5 -105 FD
Cash in on the best NFL betting promos this season to get the most bang for your buck with thousands of dollars in bonuses available at the best online sportsbooks.
Circa Millions Week 8 was strong for your boy as it was another 4-1 record. Let's keep standing on business.
Remember these are CONTEST LINES, not based on what books currently have available.
Pick 1: Miami -3.5
See above.
Pick 2: Lions -11.5
The Titans scrapped and scraped at Buffalo last weekend. They made the first half a real contest, until the Bills actually decided to play. The handicap I had for that game will be the same this weekend. Once Detroit's high-octane offense gets up on the scoreboard, how can the Titans answer? The short of it is they can't with this QB situation. Whether it's Levis or Rudolph, it doesn't matter. Detroit is too good and even though the spread is big, it's not big enough.
Pick 3: Packers -4
This line is now at 3.5 on sportsbooks as bettors have been hitting the Jags. It's my second favorite number to bet behind the Royal Mint, favorites laying 3.5 points. GB has a lot of ways to beat you on both sides of the ball. I feel like people have been waiting and waiting for the Jags to come back around, but I'm not. This is a bad football team. I have no interest in getting involved with Trevor Lawrence.
Pick 4: Colts +5
The line is muddling between 4.5 and 5, down from 5.5 earlier in the week. Aside from the Royal Mint, I genuinely like this spot. Houston and CJ Stroud have underperformed this season, especially with Nico Collins. Almost every game they've played in has been one possession. Indy played them tough in Week 1. They're also getting healthy with Jonathan Taylor and DeForest Buckner returning. The upset is on the table here in Week 8.
Pick 5: Broncos -9.5
Talk about that Closing Line Value. Currently sitting at 10.5, this felt too good to pass up. There were several other games I considered with SF -4, Cincy -2.5, Cleveland +8.5 etc. Ultimately I landed on this game because Carolina is just that bad. I wasn't sure we would get another chance to fade Bryce Young again, but here we are. One more for old times sake. To boot, the Panthers are without both of their top wide outs in Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen. The Denver defense is vicious and their offense should be able to run the ball into oblivion against the defense that's allowed 162.1 rush yards per game (most in NFL).
Best of luck this weekend!
