This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
As your season long fantasy football seasons wind down, hopefully you made the playoffs in at least one league, but for a lot of people they are left with wondering what could have been. Why did I draft all those running backs early? Why did I take Michael Floyd? Over the past few months, I have covered a lot of different strategies on how to play weekly fantasy football. This week I dig into some weekly "regimens" that I make sure to cover before submitting lineups. I'm going to use Fanduel salaries this week.
Identifying Value Plays
The first thing I do is look at the impact of injuries from the previous weeks and the current week of practices. Every week is different because of matchups, Thursday night games, and pricing. I try to get a feel for where the value is at a position (this week it is running backs). That information will help tailor what direction I go in when selecting the core group of players I use.
Next, I look at pricing changes; who has increased/decreased the most and why. I usually back off the players whose salary has increased too much and try to target the players with salaries that have dropped (in tournaments), while also factoring in health and matchup.
Impact of Injuries
Players whose value increases
Running Back
- Andre Williams $6500 – Rashad Jennings most likely out
- Terrance West $5300 – Isaiah Crowell battling a bad hip
- Jonathan Stewart $5200 – Deangelo Williams will be out, and great matchup against the Saints
- Arizona Cardinals RB $5000 – Andre Ellington most likely out. I don't know who to roll the dice on here, but gun to my head, I'm going with Marion Grice.
Wide Receiver
- Kenny Stills $6400 – With Brandon Cooks being out, he has seen more targets. I'm leary about using a guy who has been this hot for consecutive weeks, but the price is only $6400.
- Nate Washington $6600 – With Justin Hunter out for the season and Kendall Wright possibly out this week, Hunter makes for a interesting option at wide receiver after getting nine targets last week and 87 percent of the team's snaps.
Tight End
- Delanie Walker $5400 – Justin Hunter is out, Kendall Wright is also battling injuries.
Jordan Reed $5300 – With Desean Jackson limping, and Colt McCoy at the helm, Reed has major ceiling.
- Kyle Rudolph $5200 – He has a great matchup and has produced in both weeks since returning.
I always make sure to check the "Value Meter" article by Jeff Erickson throughout the week.
Price Drops
These are all players I would consider in tournaments.
- Giovani Bernard $7300 (down $900) – sounds like they might go with Gio more this week with Jeremy Hill complaining and in the doghouse.
- Kelvin Benjamin $7500 (down $400)
- Isaiah Crowell $6500 (down $400) – all health dependent
- Julius Thomas $6600 (down $400)
- Jimmy Graham $7100 (down $400)
Fantasy Points Allowed by Position
Here are some of the better value plays based on matchups.
These are all tournament only plays
- Bishop Sankey $5400 versus Giants
- Jarvis Landry $6900 versus Ravens
- Marqise Lee $5700 versus Texans
- Scott Chandler $4900 versus Broncos
Impact of Corners vs Wide Receiver Matchups
Each week I cross off any wide receiver going against these top five corners. Patrick Peterson used to be in this group, but he has been torched most of the year. The second thing I do here, is look at the number two and three wide receivers on that same team, because the quarterback will look towards them more instead of testing a top corner.
T.Y. Hilton vs Joe Haden
Jeremy Maclin vs Richard Sherman
Keenan Allen vs Darrelle Revis
*Josh Gordon vs Vontae Davis (Davis might not play, making Gordon a must start)
Sammy Watkins vs Aqib Talib
Tournament Plays
Donte Moncrief $6000
Jordan Matthews $7500
Malcom Floyd $5600
Eddie Royal $6100
Robert Woods $5900
Mock Lineups
Season long players do a ton of mock drafts before the season starts, so why not do the same in weekly games?
Use the Rotowire Lineup Optimizer to see how a lineup looks when you start constructing with some of the plays in the article.
Here is the lineup I generated using some of the plays in this article.
NFL Week 14 Optimal Lineup For FanDuel
QB Aaron Rodgers GB ATL $10,400
RB Bishop Sankey TEN NYG $5,400
RB Jonathan Stewart CAR @NO $5,200
WR Jordy Nelson GB ATL $8,900
WR Josh Gordon CLE IND $8,000
WR Kenny Stills NO CAR $6,400
TE Jordan Reed WAS STL $5,300
K Connor Barth DEN BUF $4,700
D San Francisco 49ers SF @OAK $5,600
Totals $59,900
Try your own mock lineup so you can consider all the best options before you enter a lineup.
