This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We did pretty well here last week, going 3-for-3 in games, 3-for-3 in player touchdowns and 1-for-3 in player props. (Okay, I should have done better in player props). I might be starting to learn that taking negative (insert line here) might be the right move and I shouldn't be always looking for the big payout. Let's take a look at Week 11.
GAMES
Seattle Seahawks 
(+1.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals - This line has gradually moved down over the course of this week and I think it's a good bounce-back spot for Pete Carroll and company. Russell Wilson is too good to lay another dud like he did last week, the Seahawks are home and Arizona is pretty banged up. The Cardinals also have a Week 12 bye and maybe they're looking ahead to that and throw in the towel at some point this game. I don't think the spread matters here but the +105 money line isn't enough for me to ignore the points should this be a close game.
Las Vegas Raiders 
(+1.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals have to travel across the country and Las Vegas is 3-2 at home this season. Cincinnati has allowed 75 points over their last two games so the defense is trending down at this point. The Raiders should also have a sense of urgency to win this one given they're in the tightest division (AFC West) in football.
Houston Texans 
(+10) at Tennessee Titans - No Derrick Henry, no Julio Jones so I really thought this line would be around seven. Tyrod Taylor has the mobility and decision-making skills to somewhat neutralize the Titans defensive line and he's another week removed from being injured. I'd also sprinkle a little on the Texans +340 money line to win outright.
PLAYER PROPS
Marcus Johnson OVER 2.5 Receptions (-150) - Johnson got six targets last week and without Julio Jones it looks like he's being established as the No. 2 receiving option behind A.J. Brown. The Texans should be zeroed in on slowing down Brown (over/under of 77.5 receiving yards) so Johnson should see softer coverage. This is a prop that could easily go over by halftime or at the end of a long drive.
CeeDee Lamb OVER 80.5 Receiving Yards - I usually shy away from a number this big (taking the over) but I think the stars are aligning for Lamb to hit this. First off, the Chiefs are a terrible defense and this game has all the makings of being a shootout given the high over/under total of 56.5. There's no Amari Cooper this week and Lamb has hit this over in four of his last five games. Lamb has 13 catches of 20-plus yards this season and recorded one of at least that distance in every game except for two.
Jeff Wilson OVER 79.5 Rushing Yards - Elijah Mitchell is doubtful this week and you have the think Wilson is going to get all of the carries he can handle. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry last season and the DraftKings Sportsbook has his over/under on carries at 19.5. We know Kyle Shanahan loved to run the football and the Jaguars rank 17th against opposing running backs for fantasy purposes. I like his anytime touchdown odds as well (-120).
PLAYER TOUCHDOWNS
Davante Adams (-150) - Adams has been a bit of a disappointment from a touchdown perspective this season only finding the end zone only three times. However, he had 18 touchdowns last season and recorded double-digit touchdowns in four of the last five seasons (the one that wasn't he only played 12 games). This is a plus matchup for him against the Vikings and Aaron Rodgers will be back under center.
Rashard Higgins (+260) - Higgins should have an elevated role this week with Anthony Schwartz already ruled out and Donovan Peoples-Jones continuing to deal with a groin injury. The Lions are one of the worst teams in football right now and are in the middle of the league allowing the 14th most fantasy point to opposing wide receivers. I'd also expect the Lion to focus on shutting down Nick Chubb and D'Ernest Johnson, leaving soft coverage on Higgins.
DeSean Jackson (+450) - I promise I'm not on any mind-altering pharmaceuticals as I write this as I realize it's 2021 and not 2013 when Jackson scored 9 touchdowns. That being said, he's had another week to get up to speed with the offense and this game has a hefty over/under total of 50.5. Derek Carr has played better than I thought he would this season (8.1 YPA) and has two touchdown passes in seven of his nine games this season.
