Exploiting the Matchups: Week 11 Start/Sit and Streamers

Weather hasn't been a huge factor so far this season, but it's something to keep in mind as we approach a potential snow game in Buffalo on Sunday. There's a decent chance all QBs, WRs and TEs will need to be downgraded in that one, so we'll focus on the other games for now.

On to Detroit!

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 

Quarterbacks 👍

Daniel Jones (vs. DET) — 34% started

Start Over — Derek Carr (at DEN), Jared Goff (at NYG)

The Lions have given up 23.7 fantasy points and 41.3 rushing yards per game to QBs, both league highs, struggling to deal with Jalen Hurts (17-90-1 rushing line), Geno Smith (7-49-1) and Justin Fields (13-147-2). That's good news for Jones, who has a career-high 69 rush attempts through only nine games and ranks fourth among quarterbacks with 387 rushing yards. Just don't expect much passing volume, as he's attempted no more than 37 throws in any game and averages only 26.3.

Other Good Matchups: Justin Fields (at ATL), Daniel Jones (vs. DET), Russell Wilson (vs. LV)

Running Backs 👍

David Montgomery (at ATL) — 73% started

Start Over — D'Andre Swift (at NYG), Najee Harris (vs. CIN), D'Onta Foreman (at BAL)

Montgomery managed only 5.4 PPR points against Detroit's subpar defense last week, leaving him with single digits for the third game in a row and sixth time this season. The difference this week, facing another lousy defense, is the absence of Khalil Herbert, who averaged 11.0 carries for 59.7 yards the past three games while playing 28, 28 and 38 percent of snaps. Some of that work likely goes to Trestan Ebner now, but Montgomery also figures to get more carries and was already seeing most of the RB targets. Herbert is on IR with a hip injury, ruling him out for at least four games.

Gus Edwards and/or Kenyan Drake (vs. CAR) — 28% and 20% started

Start Over —  Clyde Edwards-Helaire (at LAC), Darrell Henderson (at NO)

Both guys are available in more than one third-of Yahoo leagues, and one of them is going to be the lead back this Sunday for a team favored by 12.5 points.  The Ravens have never deployed a true workhorse in the Lamar Jackson era, but the threat of the QB's rushing all but guarantees above-average stats for the RBs on a per-carry basis. Drake is an easy fantasy start if Edwards is out for a second straight game, while the latter will probably be the lead runner if both are available.

Other Good Matchups: Devin Singletary (vs. CLE), Cordarrelle Patterson & Tyler Allgeier (vs. CHI), Antonio Gibson & Brian Robinson (at HOU), Isiah Pacheco (at LAC)

Wide Receivers 👍

Courtland Sutton (vs. LV)  — 61% started

Start Over — Adam Thielen (vs. DAL), DJ Moore (at BAL), Rondale Moore (vs. SF)

It's been a brutal stretch here for Sutton, who caught only six of 16 targets for 50 yards over his final three games before a Week 9 bye, then brought in six of 11 passes for only 66 yards this past Sunday in Tennessee. Fantasy managers should stick with him for another week nonetheless, or else re-insert him into lineups, as it appears he'll be the clear No. 1 receiver for a week or two while Jerry Jeudy heals from an ankle sprain. That doesn't guarantee anything, but it does improve his target projection just in time to face one of the worst real-life defenses in the league. 12 teams have allowed more fantasy points to WRs, but the Raiders are dead last in pass-defense DVOA and 31st in NY/A allowed (7.1). They essentially have no pass rush beyond Maxx Crosby, and it isn't clear top cornerback Nate Hobbs (hand) will be activated from IR this week (he hadn't been designated to return as of Thursday morning).

Darnell Mooney (at ATL) — 47% started

Start Over — Diontae Johnson (vs. CIN), Curtis Samuel (at HOU), Joshua Palmer (vs. KC)

Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell returned to practice Wednesday after missing the past three games with a hamstring injury, but he'd been having a down year anyway and will still be surrounded by subpar teammates in the secondary if he suits up this week. No team has given up more passing yards or more fantasy points to wide receivers, which means QB Justin Fields has a pristine matchup for the third week in a row. Perhaps Mooney will benefit more this time, as he's topped 40 yards in seven straight games, averaging 4.6 catches for 62.4 yards in that time. The games with volume haven't featured big plays, and vice versa, but this might be his best chance yet to combine both in the same week.

Other Good Matchups: Tyler Boyd (at PIT), Gabe Davis (vs. CLE) Devin Duvernay (vs. CAR), Wan'Dale Robinson (vs. DET) 

Tight Ends 👍

Dalton Schultz (at MIN) — 72% started

Start Over — Tyler Higbee (at NO), Cole Kmet (at ATL) 

Held back by a PCL injury as well as Dak Prescott's absence earlier this season, Schultz now has three games in a row with five or more catches for 49 or more yards. He isn't quite back to an every-down role yet, but his snap shares have increased with each passing game since he missed Week 6, reaching 76 percent in the loss to Green Bay last Sunday. Schultz should be in for another productive outing this Sunday against a Vikings defense that's allowed the 10th most fantasy points to tight ends. It's not a bad defense, but the game projects well for overall volume with both teams in the Top 10 for both unadjusted pace and neutral-situation pace.

Other Good Matchups: Cole Kmet (at ATL), Greg Dulcich (vs. LV)

Sit/Downgrade 

Quarterbacks 👎

Derek Carr (at DEN) — 30% started

Start Instead — Jimmy Garoppolo (at ARZ), Russell Wilson (vs. LV)

Ryan Tannehill's pair of TD passes to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine last Sunday ended a four-game streak of the Broncos limiting the opposing QB to single-digit fantasy points. They've done that six times in nine games, and none of the other three reached 20. The schedule has helped a lot, but the Broncos also dealt Justin Herbert his worst fantasy score of the year, making him one of seven QBs to post one of his two lowest scores of the season against Denver. The group includes Carr, who scored only 11.5 points in a Week 4 win where Josh Jacobs ran for 144 yards and two TDs. Carr won't have TE Darren Waller for the rematch, nor will he have WR Hunter Renfrow (who also missed the first game).

Other Tough Matchups: Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy (vs. SF), Kirk Cousins (vs. DAL), Ryan Tannehill (at GB), Matt Ryan (vs. PHI)
          

Running Backs 👎

Najee Harris (vs. CIN) — 71% started

Start Instead — Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. NYJ), Cordarrelle Patterson (vs. CHI)

Harris took 20 carries for a season-high 99 yards last week, highlighted by a 36-yard scamper, but backup Jaylen Warren also had arguably his best game of the year, finishing with personal bests for carries (nine), touches (12) and total yards (77) in addition to his second largest snap share (43 percent). Something along the lines of a 60/40 split isn't so bad when your team dominates possession and runs 79 plays against an ice-cold team like the Saints; it'll be more of a problem this Sunday as a 4.5-point underdog against the reigning AFC champions coming out of a bye. The Bengals have allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to RBs this year and rank 12th in DVOA against the run, despite playing the last six games without top defensive tackle DJ Reader, who was designated Monday to return from injured reserve.

AJ Dillon (vs. TEN) — 38% started

Start Instead — Antonio Gibson (at HOU), Michael Carter (at NE) 

Dillon hasn't scored a touchdown or tallied more than 11 receiving yards since the season opener, and he's reached 50 percent snap share just once since Week 4, needing an Aaron Jones injury to get there Week 9. Jones, of course, came back strong last week, taking 26 touches for 156 yards in a game where Dillon had 13 for 65. A matchup with the Titans doesn't figure to help, as they've allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to RBs while ranking first in run-defense DVOA and fourth in YPC allowed (3.9).

Other Tough Matchups: D'Onta Foreman (at BAL), Kareem Hunt (at BUF)

Wide Receivers 👎

DJ Moore (at BAL) — 64% started

Start Instead — Tyler Boyd (at PIT), Brandon Aiyuk (at ARI), Joshua Palmer (vs. KC)

Moore scored 47.1 PPR points between Weeks 7 and 8 but then put up back-to-back duds in what may have been the final two games of the P.J. Walker era. However inglorious it was, Moore has fared better with the former XFL star than with Baker Mayfield, who has completed only 19 of his 41 throws (46.3 percent) to the star receiver this year (and for only 221 yards and one TD). A matchup with Ravens cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters won't help, and the Panthers once again are listed with the lost implied total (14.0) of any team in the league, expected to lose by nearly two TDs (+13) in Baltimore on Sunday.

Brandin Cooks (vs. WAS) — 33% started

Start Instead — Christian Watson (vs. TEN), Jakobi Meyers (vs. NYJ), Garrett Wilson (at NE)

It's hard to tell exactly what's going on with Cooks, who had been playing through a wrist injury before he missed Week 9 for what the team deemed personal reasons, i.e., he wasn't happy about not being traded before the deadline. Cooks came back last week and was targeted seven times against the Giants, but he played a season-low 64 percent of snaps and now shows up on the Week 11 injury report with both hip and wrist injuries. It's a lot of bother for someone with one TD and zero 100-yard games on the season, and the defense he'll face this Sunday has been playing much better than the full-season stats suggest. There's even some chance the improving Washington defense gets Chase Young (ACL) back on the field this week, further boosting a pass rush that's come on strong of late.

Other Tough Matchups: Michael Pittman & Alec Pierce (vs. PHI), DeVante Parker & Tyquan Thornton (vs. NYJ)

Tight Ends 👎

Taysom Hill (vs. LAR) — 23% started

Start Instead — Foster Moreau (at DEN), Hayden Hurst (at PIT), Robert Tonyan (vs. TEN)

Not much has gone right for the Rams this year, but the two things they've done well are stopping the run (4th in DVOA) and limiting TE production (fewest fantasy points in the league). While he probably has another big day or two in him before the season ends, Hill isn't likely to break out of his slump this weekend after three games in a row without a touchdown.

Other Tough Matchups: David Njoku (at BUF), Trey McBride (vs. SF)

Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (40-66 percent rostered)

QB Daniel Jones (vs. DET)

QB Jimmy Garoppolo (at ARZ)

RB Kenyan Drake / Gus Edwards (vs. CAR)

RB Isiah Pacheco (at LAC)

WR Christian Watson (vs. TEN)

WR Drake London (vs. CHI)

TE Hayden Hurst (at PIT)

TE Greg Dulcich (vs. LV)

K Robbie Gould (at ARZ)

D/ST Broncos (vs. LVR)

D/ST Saints (vs. LAR)

For Medium-depth Leagues (16-39 percent rostered)

RB Jaylen Warren (vs. CIN)

RB Kyren Williams (at NO)

WR Parris Campbell (vs. PHI)

WR DeAndre Carter (vs. KC)

WRs Wan'Dale Robinson & Darius Slayton (vs. DET)

TE Foster Moreau (at DEN)

K Greg Joseph (vs. DAL)

D/ST Commanders (at HOU)

D/ST Jets (at NE)

For Deep Leagues (0-15 percent rostered)

QB Taylor Heinicke (at HOU)

RB Kenneth Gainwell (at IND)

RB Isaiah Spiller (vs. KC)

WR DJ Chark (at NYG)

WR Ben Skowronek (at NO)

TE Trey McBride (vs. SF)

TE Tyler Conklin (at NE)

K Cairo Santos (at ATL)

D/ST Falcons (vs. CHI)