Exploiting the Matchups: Week 15 Start/Sit

In the AFC, all but three teams are within one game of a playoff spot. In the NFC, it's the same deal, though the 5-8 squads (Seattle, Atlanta) have very little chance of qualifying despite technically being just one game out after Week 14. 

At the same time, we're seeing a surge in COVID-19 cases around the league, with the Browns, Rams and Washington Football Team seemingly taking the biggest hits for Week 15 (so far.... stay tuned). It's hard to know if any given player will stay on the reserve/COVID-19 list for long enough to miss a game, but we can probably assume there's at least some impact when a single team has a handful of key contributors now in danger of missing time.

It's yet another factor to consider with matchups, and perhaps a frustrating one given that removal from the COVID-19 list often comes down to Saturday or Sunday, whereas final injury reports are released Friday. Not that game-time decisions are a new thing entirely, but we do have to account for more late surprises than ever before, making the matchups more of a moving target than a fixed parameter. Hopefully some of this still makes sense by Sunday morning....

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

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Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NYJ)

12% started

Tagovailoa has been solid more so than spectacular in leading the Dolphins to four straight wins, but his stats nonetheless show progress compared to a disappointing rookie year, even as he's dealt with an injury-riddled receiving corps all season. He's bumped his completion rate from 64.1% in 2020 to 70.9% in 2021, his YPA from 6.3 to 7.1, and his TD rate from 3.8% to 4.4%. 

That's nothing earth-shattering, but it is improvement, which is more than the woeful Jets defense can say, currently sitting 31st in DVOA against the run and dead last against the pass. And while Tagovailoa may not have the full group of pass catchers he envisioned this summer, he at least has DeVante Parker back in the lineup now, providing a third viable option alongside emerging star Jaylen Waddle* and sure-handed TE Mike Gesicki.

*Editor's Note: Waddle was placed on the COVID-19 list Thursday morning. We did warn you this week would be messy!

• Honorable Mentions: Dak Prescott, DAL at NYG; Jalen Hurts or Gardner Minshew, PH vs. WAS; Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. ATL; Justin Fields, CHI vs. MIN

Running Backs

James Robinson (vs. HOU)

66% started

At one point not so long ago, it appeared Robinson would overcome tough odds and manage a robust fantasy stat line for the second straight year despite playing on an abysmal team. We now know that's not the case, with team context and a heel injury conspiring to drag Robinson down in the second half of the season. He also hasn't gotten much help from matchups, and a lack of early momentum has proven especially costly with the Jags then forced to abandon the run. 

The good news, however, is three-fold. For starters, Robinson still dominates the ground workload when healthy, taking 55 carries to Carlos Hyde's 18 over the past five weeks, even with the heel injury and a brief benching due to a fumble. Then there's the matchup with Houston — a team nearly as pathetic as Jacksonville — and some potential addition by subtraction with Urban Meyer finally canned.

Miles Sanders (vs. WAS)

27% started

This one admittedly could be tricky, with Sanders limited in practice to start the week after injuring his ankle toward the end of a Week 13 win over the Jets (in which he ran for 120 yards). The Week 14 bye helped Sanders' odds of avoiding missed time, but it also helped Jordan Howard recover from a knee injury, with the veteran bruiser now back in practice as a limited participant. It all makes for a confusing situation and potentially a three-headed committee, but the cumulative production should be strong against Washington's thinned-out defense, and Sanders is still a clear favorite to get the most carries when healthy. If he ends up inactive, Howard and Boston Scott both would be solid plays.

• Honorable Mentions: Josh Jacobs, LV at CLE; Myles Gaskin, MIA vs. NYJ; Jeff Wilson, SF vs. ATL; David Johnson & Royce Freeman, HOU at JAX

Wide Receivers

DeVonta Smith 

31% started

Smith initially did well with Philly's shift to a run-first offense, scoring three TDs on 12 targets between Weeks 9 and 10. Since then, it's caught up to him, with the rookie catching eight of 14 passes for 98 yards over the past three games. He may not see the same volume as other No. 1 receivers, but Smith is still the clear Alpha among Philly's wideouts and still has an every-down role. Plus, he might only need five or six targets in this one, facing a Washington defense that already had its two best pass rushers on IR and now faces a slew of COVID absences.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (at BAL)

18% started

It was Allen Lazard's turn for a big game last week, but MVS still drew a handful of targets, after piling up 19 looks (and 173 yards) in the final two contests before a Week 13 bye. While consistency isn't part of the deal here, Valdes-Scantling has better odds than usual for a distance score, facing an injury-depleted Baltimore secondary that ranks dead last in pass plays of 40-plus yards (13) and 20-plus (56). Keep in mind that both MVS and Lazard are full-time players now, with TE Robert Tonyan (knee) out for the season and slot man Randall Cobb (groin) on IR. Over the past three games, Valdes-Scantling ran routes on 83.5 percent of Aaron Rodgers' dropbacks.

• Honorable Mentions: DeVante Parker, MIA vs. NYJ; Brandon Aiyuk, SF vs. ATL; A.J. Green & Christian Kirk, ARZ at DET; DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. WAS; Darnell Mooney, CHI vs. MIN

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz 

57% started

This may not be a great volume game for Arizona's pass offense as a whole, but the combination of Kyle Murray playing and DeAndre Hopkins sitting out is tantalizing for Ertz, especially when it coincides with a dome matchup against one of the NFL's worst defenses. The 31-year-old has solid numbers, as is, averaging 4.0 catches for 45.9 yards on 5.4 targets for the Cardinals, with three TDs in seven games despite playing with Colt McCoy as much as Murray so far.

• Honorable Mentions: Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. WAS; Mike Gesicki, MIA vs. NYJ; Foster Moreau, LV at CLE

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Quarterbacks

Taysom Hill (at TB)

30% started

Hill's reliance on his feet rather than his arm has worked fine so far, at least for fantasy purposes, but his luck could run out this Sunday in a road matchup with a solid defense. While the Bucs haven't been quite as dominant against the run as they were in 2019-20, they've still allowed the third fewest yards (91.2 per game) and fifth fewest touchdowns (nine) on the ground, and they're 11-point favorites this Sunday with the Saints carrying a measly implied total of 17.75. Even last week against the Jets, it was only fourth-quarter heroics (rushing TDs of 2 and 44 yards) that saved Hill's fantasy stats after a mostly ugly performance. The Bucs won't be as generous.

• Honorable Mentions: Russell Wilson, SEA at LAR; Ryan Tannehill, TEN at PIT; Taylor Heinicke, WAS at PHI; Carson Wentz, IND vs. NE

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard (at BUF)

45% started

A role as the lead runner isn't worth much when you're playing on a bad team, coming off the field on most passing downs and losing goal-line carries to Cam Newton. And while Hubbard did manage a TD of his own in last week's loss to Atlanta, his 10 carries were the same number Newton took, while fellow RB Ameer Abdullah actually played more snaps (59 percent to 39) than his young backfield mate. The rookie still checks out as a desperation play in deeper formats, but don't expect much more than that these next four weeks as he finishes out his season against three of the toughest defenses in the league (at BUF, vs. TB, at NO, at TB)

Damien Harris (at IND)

21% started

Leonard Fournette ran all over the Colts in Week 12, but opponents otherwise have had more luck moving the ball through the air, with Indy ranking fifth in DVOA against the run and 17th against the pass. They've also given up the fifth fewest fantasy points to running backs, and while the Patriots (led by a beastly O-line) are surely up to the challenge, it's hard to get pumped about Harris these days unless he's in an excellent matchup. That's because Rhamondre Stevenson poaches nearly half the early down carries, while Brandon Bolden still handles passing downs. There's also the matter of a hamstring injury, though Harris appears on track to play after a Week 14 bye.

• Honorable Mentions: Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. DAL; Rashaad Penny, SEA at LAR: Nyheim Hines, IND vs. NE

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman (vs. NE)

38% started

Pittman is a distant second to Jonathan Taylor in terms of importance to the Indianapolis offense, but I'm nonetheless wary of Bill Belichick's track record of shutting down a team's pass catcher, not to mention New England being a brutal matchup for passing offenses overall. Only three teams have allowed fewer fantasy points to wide receivers, and only two rank higher in DVOA against the pass. Pittman may even face shadow coverage from J.C. Jackson, who has seven interceptions and a league-high 17 PDs this season.

• Honorable Mentions: Mike Evans, TB vs. NO; Terry McLaurin, WAS at PHI; Tyler Boyd, CIN at DEN; Kenny Golladay, NYG vs. DAL

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett (at LAR)

14% started

Everett had some traction for a minute there, but his Week 13 bout with fumblitis was followed by a Week 14 dip in playing time, and the Rams are no easy matchup even if CB Jalen Ramsey is on the COVID list. Don't let the TD last week fool you; Everett lost more work to Will Dissly, logging 62 percent of snaps after five straight games at 75 percent or higher. And even if the lost playing time doesn't stick this week, Everett is a mediocre player facing his former team... and his former team certainly isn't mediocre. Hard pass on any revenge-game narrative here.

• Honorable Mentions: Kyle Pitts, ATL at SF

Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (40-66 percent rostered)

QB Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NYJ)

RB Jeff Wilson (vs. ATL)

RB D'Onta Foreman (at PIT)

RB David Johnson (at JAX)

WR DeVante Parker (vs. NYJ)

WR A.J. Green (at DET)

TE Tyler Conklin (at CHI)

K Chris Boswell (vs. TEN)

D/ST Eagles (vs. WAS)

For Medium-depth Leagues (15-39 percent rostered)

QB Jimmy Garoppolo (vs. ATL)

QB Ben Roethlisberger (vs. TEN)

RB Tevin Coleman (at MIA)

RB Boston Scott (vs. WAS)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. ARZ)

WR Kendrick Bourne (at IND)

K Robbie Gould (vs. ATL)

D/ST Vikings (at CHI)

For Deep Leagues (under 15 percent rostered)

QB Gardner Minshew (vs. WAS)

QB Davis Mills (at JAX)

RB Samaje Perine (at DEN)

RB Royce Freeman (at JAX)

WR Gabriel Davis (vs. CAR)

WR Allen Lazard (at BAL)

TE C.J. Uzomah (at DEN)

TE Foster Moreau (at CLE)

K Jason Sanders (vs. NYJ)

D/ST Raiders (at CLE)