Exploiting the Matchups: Week 2 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Published on September 12, 2024

Week 1 was brutal for passing from the standpoint of both volume (30.5 attempts per team) and efficiency (6.7 YPA), with teams calling more run plays than usual, QBs scrambling at an unusually high rate, and offenses favoring short throws over long ones even more than they did in recent seasons. While it would be all but impossible for Week 2 to be as bad in terms of WR and TE fantasy production, all of the aforementioned trends have roots in the previous two seasons, both of which were unusually low-scoring by modern standards.

Teams averaged 22.9 points per game last week, back in line with pre-2022 levels, largely thanks to improved field position after kickoffs and a slew of impressive rushing performances. It's difficult to sort out exactly what this means for fantasy, especially after just one week, but we need to at least being consider the possibility that a ton of WRs and TEs will fail to live up to ADP. And while that would be good news for those that leaned into RBs in the early/middle rounds of drafts, it also means the exceptions at WR/TE could be more valuable than ever.

One of the other trends we saw Week 1 was a big gap between the 'haves' and 'have nots' on offense, with expected heavyweights like Baltimore, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Miami, Detroit, Buffalo and Los Angeles (Rams) all supporting at least one or two players with big-time fantasy scores. Dallas was an exception with production spread around in a defense-driven win, and Tampa Bay also got in on the fun in a big way, but we basically saw the best fantasy performances concentrated among teams that are perceived to be the best.

Each slate is different, of course, and I think this week will play out somewhat different, with some of the non-juggernauts benefitting from matchups against each other. It's also a fair assumption that TE scoring, in particular, can't possibly be as bad as it was in Week 1, even if there's sufficient reason to worry about disappointment relative to pre-season expectations. We'll revisit all of this next week, at which point there hopefully will be more cause for optimism when it comes to offensive fireworks and fantasy production.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Jayden Daniels (vs. NYG) — 43% started

Start Over — Joe Burrow (at KC), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. BUF), Caleb Williams (at HOU)

Daniels ran for 88 yards and a pair of one-yard touchdowns Sunday in Tampa Bay, making him the third-highest-scoring QB for fantasy despite getting only eight drives — with three TDs and two missed FGs — in a game dominated by the Bucs offense. Terry McLaurin's quiet opener was discouraging, but the Commanders otherwise found success on offense, moving the ball via Daniels' legs and short passes to RBs. While their offense still figures to struggle plenty this season, a Week 2 home matchup with the Giants should allow Washington to obscure most of the shortcomings again. Minnesota's Sam Darnold had just five incompletions against the Giants last week while engineering three TDs over the first five series.

Other Good Matchups: Jared Goff (vs. TB), Baker Mayfield (at DET), Malik Willis (vs. IND), Daniel Jones (at WAS)

Running Backs 👍

Brian Robinson (vs. NYG) — 41% started

Start Over — Aaron Jones (vs. SF), D'Andre Swift (at HOU), Devin Singletary (at WAS)

We'll stick with the theme of picking on Big Blue, even though the Commanders probably aren't much better. Robinson not only scored 17.9 PPR points Week 1 against Tampa but also had some promising role indicators, including 67 percent snap share and 15 of the 17 RB opportunities prior to the fourth quarter (shameless plug for Box Score Breakdown).

That might not be optimal for Washington given the possibility that even a 29-year-old version of Austin Ekeler is more explosive than Robinson, but OC Kliff Kingsbury's opinion is far more important than mine when trying to predict fantasy production. Kingsbury made it clear Robinson is his lead back, and brilliance won't be necessary to put up a nice fantasy total in a home game against the woeful Giants. If that comes to pass, as I expect, it'd make Robinson a strong "sell high" candidate for fantasy managers that are deep at RB.

J.K. Dobbins (at CAR) — 39% started

Start Over — Javonte Williams (vs. PIT), Zack Moss (at KC), Ezekiel Elliott (vs. NO)

A pleasant Week 1 surprise in terms of both workload and efficiency, Dobbins gets another favorable matchup after ripping off runs of 61 and 46 yards (plus a 12-yard TD) in a win over Las Vegas. It's even possible his strong performance in the opener tilts the workload more in his favor, after Dobbins held a 59/41 snap advantage and 13-12 touch advantage over Gus Edwards (28 total yards) in the opener. Carolina might be the worst team in the league again and just gave up 180 rushing yards to the Saints, with both Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams scoring TDs on the ground.

Other Good Matchups: Derrick Henry (vs. LV), Josh Jacobs (vs. IND), Devin Singletary (at WAS), Chuba Hubbard (vs. LAC)

Wide Receivers 👍

Malik Nabers (at WAS) — 69% started

Start Over — Michael Pittman (at GB), Tank Dell (vs. CHI), George Pickens (at DEN)

Nabers was about the only bright spot for New York last week, playing every snap on offense and catching five of seven targets for 66 yards. You'd like to see a higher target rate — he got the ball on just seven of 47 routes (14.9 percent) — but he led the team in yardage and was one of just two Giants with more than five targets. The rookie will now face what might be the worst secondary in the NFL, coming off a Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay in which 2023 first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes was benched (again), fellow starting corner Benjamin St-Juste was abused (again) and the opponent's wide receivers scored four TDs (with a fifth being dropped). Even Daniel Jones might look halfway competent for one week.

Jameson Williams (at TB) — 28% started

Start Over — Calvin Ridley (vs. NYJ), Xavier Worthy (vs. CIN), George Pickens (at DEN)

It's always fun when one of the breakout stars from Week 1 gets a gold-plated matchup Week 2. The Buccaneers don't have a good secondary in the first place and got racked by injuries this past Sunday, losing starting cornerback Zyon McCollum (concussion) and then both of his backups (Bryce Hall - broken leg, Josh Hayes - ankle). As if that weren't bad enough, safety Antoine Winfield injured his foot at the end of the game, robbing Tampa Bay's secondary of its best player (by far) for at least the next few weeks. Enter Williams, who had career highs for snap share (85 percent), route share (93 percent) and target share (32 percent) en route to a 5-121-1 receiving line Week 1 against the Rams.

Other Good Matchups: Deebo Samuel & Brandon Aiyuk (at MIN), Amari Cooper & Jerry Jeudy (at JAX), Chris Godwin (at DET), Demarcus Robinson & Tyler Johnson (at ARZ), Rashod Bateman (vs. LV), Wan'Dale Robinson (at WAS)

Tight Ends 👍

Colby Parkinson (at ARZ) — 21% started

Start Over — Taysom Hill (at DAL), Hunter Henry (vs. SEA), Noah Fant (at NE)

While nothing special from a talent standpoint, Parkinson finds himself in a desirable role for an offense led by a top passer and elite playcaller, with the added benefit(s) of reduced target competition after Puka Nacua's injury and now a favorable matchup against a talent-deficient Cardinals defense. Parkinson took on 88 percent snap share and 80 percent route share in his first game with the Rams, even finishing third among tight ends in yardage (47) and tied for fourth in targets (four) during an absolutely brutal week for the position. T

he bad week top to bottom — apart from Isiah Likely and Brock Bowers — means most fantasy owners should stick with the guys they drafted as starters rather than panicking, but Parkinson makes for a nice replacement if you just lost David Njoku (ankle) or Jake Ferguson (knee) or waited too long on the position and ended up with someone like Cole Kmet or Luke Musgrave as your top guy. Unlike Kmet and Musgrave, Parkinson has a near-every-down role.

Other Good Matchups: Cade Otton (at DET), Zach Ertz (vs. NYG), Hayden Hurst (at CAR)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Joe Burrow (at KC) — 65% started

Start Instead — Dak Prescott (vs. NO), Jared Goff (vs. TB), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. BUF)

The discussion about Burrow flexing his surgically repaired wrist a lot is the least of my concerns, as his accuracy and velocity looked fine in a Week 1 loss to New England. The real problem was nothing new for him and coach Zac Taylor — they were too quick to settle for short completions rather than challenging the defense downfield. Not having Tee Higgins (hamstring) is part of that, and a practice absence Wednesday suggests the wideout is likely to miss another game.

Burrow has a strong track record against Steve Spagnuolo's defenses, but each of the four previous matchups came with Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd all playing. This time around, Burrow will be working with Chase, Andrei Iosivas and Trenton Irwin, plus TE and RB groups that are among the worst in the league.

Other Tough Matchups: Trevor Lawrence (vs. CLE), Will Levis (vs. NYJ), Derek Carr (at DAL), Sam Darnold (vs. SF), Gardner Minshew (at BAL), Bo Nix (vs. PIT)

Running Backs 👎

Rachaad White (at DET) — 86% started

Start Instead — James Conner (vs. LAR), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. SEA), Jordan Mason (at MIN)

White's receiving skills should keep him viable as an RB2 even if Bucky Irving continues stealing more snaps/touches than Chase Edmonds did last year, but this is a good week to put White on ice if you have a comparable alternative, given the added challenge of facing a Lions defense that held RBs to a league-low 15.8 PPR points per game last season. In addition to limiting backs to 3.47 YPC and a league-low 1,028 rushing yards, Detroit gave up the second fewest catches (59) to the position. The Lions have the same defensive coordinator and nearly all of the same front-seven players this year, and it even looks like 335-pound DT DJ Reader will return Sunday (full practice Wednesday) after suffering a quad tear in December and missing Week 1.

Javonte Williams (vs. PIT) — 21% started

Start Instead — Ezekiel Elliott (vs. NO), Zack Moss (at KC), Jeff Wilson (vs. BUF)

Williams comes with multiple concerns, facing a tough Pittsburgh defense after getting just nine touches (to Jaleel McLaughlin's 15) in a Week 1 loss at Seattle. Audric Estime (two carries) going to injured reserve with an ankle injury helps a tiny bit, but that probably won't be enough to rescue Williams from the reality of being a timeshare back in a bad offense that's facing a good defense.

While Atlanta's Bijan Robinson looked great last week, he didn't have much room to run against a Pittsburgh front led by OLBs T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, ILB Patrick Queen and DE Cameron Heyward. The latter looked rejuvenated after a down 2023 season in which his missed time with a groin injury and concussion contributed to the collapse of Pittsburgh's run defense. With Heyward healthy and effective again, the Steelers should bounce back and be at least average against the run.

Other Tough Matchups: Aaron Jones (vs. SF), Zack Moss (at KC), Zamir White (at BAL)

Wide Receivers 👎

DK Metcalf (at NE) — 79% started

Start Instead — Zay Flowers (vs. LV), Amari Cooper (at JAX), Chris Godwin (at DET)

Metcalf should be fine in the long run, but he's looking at another matchup that's suboptimal from a volume standpoint, and with the added challenge of facing a defense whose perimeter corners both ran sub-4.4 40s (Christian Gonzalez - 4.38, Jonathan Jones - 4.33). New England doesn't have the best CB room in the league, but it's probably the most athletic with Gonzalez and Jones joined by slot man / return specialist Marcus Jones (4.44 40). The Patriots want to run the ball and drain clock, and while the Seahawks are more up-tempo under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubbs, they also ran the ball a lot in their opener even before building a multi-score lead. There's not much chance of either QB attempting more than 30-32 passes in this game unless one of the team falls way behind and is forced to abandon the run.

Only 8 of 32 teams had a positive Pass Rate Over Expectation in Week 1.
I don't expect that to hold, but talked about it on Solo Pod. If there's a macro pendulum swing back to running the ball, it will have impact on optimal strategy of all fantasy formats. pic.twitter.com/ILQMyJtHP4
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 10, 2024

Christian Kirk (vs. CLE) — 31% started

Start Instead — Tank Dell (vs. CHI), Xavier Worthy (vs. CIN), Jayden Reed (vs. IND)

Kirk uncharacteristically dropped two passes Week 1, but the real problem is that he's facing the toughest target competition of his career and will now go up against one of the league's best cornerback groups. For all the Browns' other issues in their season opener, standout slot corner Greg Newsome did a nice job on CeeDee Lamb, who caught three of seven targets for 22 yards when lined up inside (per PFF). Kirk took 63 percent of his snaps in the slot last week and was outproduced by both Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas on an afternoon when five Jaguars got either three or four targets but none saw five.

Other Tough Matchups: Tyler Lockett & Jaxon Smith-Njigba (at NE), Calvin Ridley & DeAndre Hopkins (at NYJ), George Pickens (at DEN), Courtland Sutton & Josh Reynolds (vs. PIT), Jakobi Meyers (at BAL)

Tight Ends 👎

Pat Freiermuth (at DEN) — 18% started

Start Instead — Brock Bowers (at BAL), Colby Parkinson (at ARZ)

This shouldn't be a bad matchup from an efficiency standpoint, but Freiermuth's role doesn't hint at much fantasy upside outside of negative game script, and this likely will be a low-scoring game in which both teams favor cautious playcalling centered on run plays. There's also the matter of Justin Fields turning dropbacks into sacks/scrambles at an unprecedented rate, which means many of Freiermuth's routes could go to waste. Freiermuth played all 20 of Pittsburgh's snap in three-TE sets Week 1, but he missed out on six of the 29 snaps in 11 personnel (three-wide) and 12 of the 18 snaps in 12 personnel (two-wide), losing work to both Darnell Washington and MyCole Pruitt.