Exploiting the Matchups: Week 9 Start/Sit & Fantasy Streamers

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Published on November 2, 2023

Four teams are on bye in Week 9, and plenty of fantasy managers will be scrambling for replacements to their idle Broncos, Jaguars, Lions and/or 49ers, be it from the bench or the waiver wire.

Injuries further cut into the available talent pool, and the quarterback position has been hit especially hard by injuries, throwing entire offenses in flux. If Aaron Rodgers were under center for the Jets, we'd probably be talking about his former Packers teammate Allen Lazard as a solid flex play against the Chargers this week, and who knows what Week 9 will hold for T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison and KJ Osborn in a Vikings offense operating without both Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson against a Falcons team that's making an old-fashioned QB change based on performance rather than injury.

NFL offenses are always looking for an edge, and mobile QBs are en vogue right now after an era that featured pocket passers like Tom Brady and the Manning brothers each winning multiple Super Bowls. Patrick Mahomes' skill set would translate in any era, though this week's matchup against Tyreek Hill's Dolphins is a stark reminder that even Mahomes hasn't managed to elevate any KC WR to consistent fantasy stardom in 2023. Mobile QBs like Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are all strong fantasy options, but their proclivity for using their legs cuts into both the rushing attempts of their teams' running backs and the targets of their receivers. The top

Four teams are on bye in Week 9, and plenty of fantasy managers will be scrambling for replacements to their idle Broncos, Jaguars, Lions and/or 49ers, be it from the bench or the waiver wire.

The smaller pool of strong fantasy options compared to the golden era of QB play we recently exited puts that much more of a premium on the ability to find strong streamers, be they one-week plug-ins or a multi-week contributors. Whether it's through exploiting vulnerable defenses or seizing opportunities created by teammates' injuries, the players to Start/Upgrade or Streaming Picks below stand out as options that can help your lineups this week. On the flip side, players in the Sit/Downgrade section could have a rough go of things in Week 9, and fantasy managers lucky/skilled enough to have quality bench options available this week should consider going to those alternatives.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Thursday afternoon.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Derek Carr (vs. CHI) — 46% started

Start Over — Geno Smith (at BAL), Matthew Stafford (at GB), Sam Howell (at NE)

The Bears are the most generous team when it comes to receiving production out of the backfield, and while you don't need me to tell you to start Alvin Kamara this week, Kamara's contributions should come primarily through the air rather than on the ground considering Chicago has allowed league-highs in receiving yards (497) and receiving TDs (five) to RBs but is giving up only 3.3 YPC on the ground. With the recent emergence of Rashid Shaheed alongside Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, Carr's also presiding over one of the rare offenses with three legitimate fantasy WR options -- the dearth of which I just lamented above. Carr has heated up with three consecutive games of more than 300 yards, and the lack of crowd noise helps Carr take care of the football at home, as he has just four interceptions at home since the start of last season compared to 14 on the road over that span.

Other Good Matchups: Dak Prescott (at PHI), C.J. Stroud (vs. TB), Mac Jones (vs. WAS), Bryce Young (vs. IND)

Running Backs 👍

Zack Moss (at GB) — 39% started

Start Over — Najee Harris (vs. TEN), Alexander Mattison (at ATL), Gus Edwards (vs, SEA)

Generally, you like to see a high touch floor with RBs, but if Moss still had that, he'd be started pretty much universally this week. Even with Jonathan Taylor's role expanding, there should still be enough looks left over for Moss to find success against a Panthers defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards (888) and most scrimmage TDs (14) to RBs in 2023. Carolina's also allowing the sixth-fewest passing yards per game, so the Colts should look to get the ball into the hands of Taylor and Moss as much as possible rather than relying on Gardner Minshew and the passing attack. Moss's 39 percent snap share last week was his lowest of the season, yet he still managed to rack up 74 scrimmage yards and a TD on 12 touches. With six scrimmage TDs in seven games and a robust 4.7 YPC average, Moss has earned himself a role large enough to continue excelling in favorable matchups, even with Taylor back in the lead role.

Chuba Hubbard (vs. IND) — 22% started

Start Over — Dameon Pierce (vs. TB), Emari Demercado (at CLE), D'Onta Foreman (at NO)

Hubbard handled 77 percent of offensive snaps in Week 6 when Miles Sanders was sidelined by an injury. With Sanders back in the mix after the Week 7 bye, Hubbard still played 67 percent of offensive snaps compared to Sanders' 18. Carolina's backfield is more of starter-backup situation than a 1A-1B, and after turning 37 touches into 144 scrimmage yards and one TD over the past two weeks, Hubbard's well positioned for a strong outing against a Colts defense that's allowing a league-high 28.6 PPG. Only Hubbard's own Panthers have allowed more scrimmage TDs to RBs than Indianapolis' 12, so both teams should find success on the ground in this game.

Other Good Matchups: Saquon Barkley (at LV), Alvin Kamara (vs. CHI), Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt (vs. ARI), Royce Freeman and Darrell Henderson (at GB)

Wide Receivers 👍

Nico Collins (vs. TB) — 45% started

Start Over — Michael Pittman (at CAR), Terry McLaurin (at NE), Jordan Addison (at ATL)

Collins has been a bit less consistent than we would like, but this is much more of a ceiling game than a floor game for the boom-or-bust WR. Collins has reached the 80-yard mark in four of seven games, and Houston will likely have to throw early and often against a Tampa Bay defense that's allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to WRs and third-fewest to RBs. Behind Collins, Tank Dell is a strong streaming option in this matchup, and Noah Brown is definitely worthy of consideration in deeper leagues if Robert Woods (foot) sits again as expected.

Brandin Cooks (at PHI) — 15% started

Start Over — Rashee Rice (vs. MIA), Romeo Doubs (vs. LAR), Joshua Palmer (at NYJ)

Cooks' tenure in Dallas got off to a slow start, but the six-time 1,000-yard receiver has picked things up recently, notching at least 50 yards and a TD in each of the last two games. Running on the Eagles is supremely difficult, so the Cowboys will likely go with a pass-heavy approach against a Philadelphia secondary that's allowed the most receptions (136), second-most receiving yards (1,537) and second-most receiving TDs (12) to WRs. For those curious, Washington has been worse in each of the last two categories. CeeDee Lamb is the clear No. 1 WR in Dallas, but Cooks is the next-best choice for looks in this favorable matchup.

Other Good Matchups: Garrett Wilson (vs. LAC), DeAndre Hopkins (vs. PIT), Diontae Johnson (vs. TEN), Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed (vs. CHI), Demario Douglas (vs. WAS)

Tight Ends 👍

Luke Musgrave (vs. LAR) — 8% started

Start Over — Logan Thomas (at NE), Tyler Higbee (at GB), Jonnu Smith (vs. MIN)

Three of the four teams with the most receiving yards allowed to TEs are on bye. The other is the Rams, whose 497 yards and four TDs allowed to TEs are both second-most in the NFL. If you're in need of help at the position, Musgrave's nearly universally available and should deliver as a one-week plug-in. The rookie second-round pick has been quiet after notching at least 49 receiving yards in two of his first three games, but this is an ideal opportunity for Musgrave to regain form.

Other Good Matchups: Dalton Kincaid (at CIN), Tyler Conklin (vs. LAC)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Jordan Love (vs. LAR) — 24% started

Start Instead — Daniel Jones (at LV), Mac Jones (vs. WAS), Bryce Young (vs. IND), Zach Wilson (vs. LAC)

Hopefully you aren't in a position where you're thinking of starting Love, but between deep leagues, two-QB/superflex formats and managers with a starter on bye, there are plenty of situations where the thought of utilizing Green Bay's struggling signal caller may cross your mind. Almost a quarter of fantasy managers currently have Love locked in, but you can almost assuredly do better than a guy with a 5:9 TD:INT in his last five games and no more than 259 passing yards in a game this season. It's not like Love does significant damage with his legs, either, as he has yet to reach 40 rushing yards in a game. The Rams surrendered 43 points in Dallas last week but came into that game allowing a modest 20.1 PPG.

Other Tough Matchups: Justin Herbert (at NYJ), Geno Smith (at BAL), Gardner Minshew (at CAR)

Running Backs 👎

Tony Pollard (at PHI) — 88% started

Start Instead — Breece Hall (vs. LAC), Isiah Pacheco (vs. MIA), Joe Mixon (vs. BUF)

You probably aren't benching Pollard, but for the rare fantasy manager that's stacked at running back, he could be your odd man out this week. The Eagles have allowed a league-low 416 rushing yards, and the three teams with the next-fewest rushing yards allowed and eight games played are all on bye this week. Philadelphia's also one of nine teams without a receiving TD allowed to a running back, and the Eagles' two rushing TDs allowed to the position are tied for fourth-fewest. Pollard has scored more than 9.0 PPR fantasy points only once in his last four games, and he's unlikely to shake this slump in Week 9.

Dameon Pierce (vs. TB) — 43% started

Start Instead — Kareem Hunt (vs. ARI), Brian Robinson (at NE), Royce Freeman (at GB)

Even before he missed practice Wednesday and Thursday due to an ankle injury, things were looking bleak for Pierce. He's averaging just 3.0 YPC behind a Houston offensive line that has struggled to run block, and after opening the season in a clear lead role, Pierce has been relegated to a timeshare with Devin Singletary, notching 25 carries and zero targets to Singletary's 22 carries and four targets over the past two games. Pierce is unlikely to turn things around against a Tampa Bay defense that has yet to allow a rushing TD to a running back.

Other Tough Matchups: D'Andre Swift (vs. DAL), Najee Harris (vs. TEN), Gus Edwards (vs. SEA), Emari Demercado (at CLE)

Wide Receivers 👎

Jakobi Meyers (vs. NYG) — 49% started

Start Instead — Diontae Johnson (vs. TEN), Tyler Lockett (at BAL), Gabe Davis (vs. CIN)

Whether it was coach Josh McDaniels' scheme, GM Dave Ziegler's desire to feature his offseason acquisition, or chemistry with QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Meyers had been playing a significant role in Vegas' offense, topping 60 yards in Garoppolo's first four starts before Vegas' entire passing game fell apart in Week 8. Monday's debacle in Detroit was the straw that broke the camel's back, as McDaniels and Ziegler were let go and Garoppolo was benched. Meyers had just 33 yards on four targets in the only previous start for rookie QB Aidan O'Connell, and after refusing to trade Davante Adams, the new regime will likely try to placate the star receiver with a boatload of targets at Meyers' expense. From a matchup perspective, the Giants have been stingy recently, allowing just 11.3 PPG in their last three games.

Marquise Brown (at CLE) — 46% started

Start Instead — Michael Thomas (vs. CHI), Demario Douglas (vs. WAS), Jahan Dotson (at NE)

It's possible that rookie fifth-round pick Clayton Tune will come in and light up a Browns defense that's allowing a league-low 260.0 scrimmage yards per game while Brown repeatedly burns standout corner Denzel Ward, but a far likelier scenario with Joshua Dobbs now in Minnesota and Kyler Murray (knee) still on the PUP list is Arizona's offense struggling to move the ball while being overwhelmed by Myles Garrett and the rest of Cleveland's potent pass rush. The Browns are likely to start PJ Walker at QB, so Cleveland may not necessarily score many points, thus limiting Brown's opportunities to capitalize on softer coverage in garbage time.

Other Tough Matchups: Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer (at NYJ), DeVonta Smith (vs. DAL), Michael Pittman and Josh Downs (at CAR), DJ Moore (at NO)

Tight Ends 👎

Cole Kmet (at NO) — 31% started

Start Instead — David Njoku (vs. ARI), Taysom Hill (vs. CHI), Dalton Schultz (vs. TB)

After allowing the fewest yards in the NFL to tight ends last season, the Saints are giving up the second-fewest yards to the position in 2023. Kmet caught all 10 of his targets for 79 yards last week against the Chargers, but he had just two catches for nine yards over the previous two games combined, and Justin Fields' (thumb) continued absence caps the upside of Chicago's entire offense. Perhaps there will be ample garbage time to capitalize on like last week, but against this defense, those looks from undrafted rookie QB Tyson Bagent may still go to players other than Kmet.