I use several RotoWire tools to analyze matchups, starting with Box Score Breakdown, which gives me a clear view of snaps, routes and other usage stats from the previous week. NFL defense vs. position stats identify exploitable matchups, while NFL advanced stats provide me with emerging trends. And I monitor the NFL injury report and NFL player news to see how roles and NFL depth charts may shift for the current week.
Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.
Start/Upgrade 👍
Quarterbacks 👍
Matthew Stafford (at ARZ) — 67% started
Start Over — Bo Nix (at LV), Jared Goff (vs. DAL), Joe Burrow (at BUF)
From an efficiency standpoint, the Rams' passing game has lagged a bit in recent weeks, but that hasn't stopped Stafford from extending his multi-TD streak to six consecutive games. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have become a fun team for fantasy, with their pass-happy offense often doing good things for volume on both sides of games. Baker Mayfield didn't capitalize last week, but Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy tossed three TDs apiece in Weeks 11-12. We can expect about the same from Stafford this Sunday, especially if DT Walter Nolen (ankle) and CB Max Melton (heel) aren't available for Arizona.
- Other Good Matchups: Dak Prescott (at DET), Bo Nix (at LV), J.J. McCarthy (vs. MIN),
Running Backs 👍
Quinshon Judkins (vs. TEN) — 77% started
Start Over — Kenneth Walker (at ATL), Jaylen Warren (at BAL), RJ Harvey (at LV)
Dylan Sampson took on more of a role the past two weeks, only to suffer a calf injury that has him in doubt for Week 14. The Titans have played much better run defense since their Week 10 bye, but nothing else has improved, which means Judkins should get plenty of volume. In his three previous starts where the Browns were favored, Judkins put up rushing lines of 25-84-3, 22-75-0 (plus 2-10-0 receiving) and 16-47-2, getting it done for fantasy without the benefit of yardage efficiency.
Chris Rodriguez (at MIN) — 14% started
Start Over — Kyle Monangai (at GB), Zach Charbonnet (at ATL), Tony Pollard (at CLE)
The Vikings still have a respectable defense, but their horrific offense is good news for a game-script-dependent RB like Rodriguez, who has more rushing TDs (four) than targets (two) this season. Three of those four TDs came in the past four games, a stretch in which Rodriguez averaged 11.0 carries for 50.2 yards as Washington's lead runner. All four of those games were losses, with the first two being blowouts, but we saw Rodriguez go as high as 15 rush attempts in Week 11 when the Commanders nearly beat the Dolphins in Madrid. I don't buy the Vikings being favored this week, and thus think Rodriguez can push up toward 15 touches again.
- Other Good Matchups: James Cook (vs. CIN), De'Von Achane (at NYJ), RJ Harvey (at LV)
Wide Receivers 👍
Jaylen Waddle (at NYJ) — 75% started
Start Over — DeVonta Smith (at LAC), Zay Flowers (vs. PIT), Emeka Egbuka (vs. NO)
Waddle should rebound from last week's dud even if the overall passing volume for Miami is lacking again. The Jets have one of the worst CB groups in the league since trading away Sauce Gardner, and their pass rush isn't nearly good enough to make up for it.
Jakobi Meyers (vs. IND) — 33% started
Start Over — Khalil Shakir (vs. CIN), Quentin Johnston (vs. PHI), Xavier Worthy (at HOU)
It didn't take long for Meyers to build chemistry with Trevor Lawrence, nor did it take long for Jacksonville's trade-deadline acquisition to jump into an every-down role. With Parker Washington (hip) banged up and the Colts defense missing some key pieces, Meyers figures to again top 90% route share while drawing a good number of targets.
- Other Good Matchups: Jameson Williams, Isaac TeSlaa & Tom Kennedy (vs. DAL); CeeDee Lamb & George Pickens (at DET); Jaylen Waddle & Malik Washington (at NYJ); Adonai Mitchell & John Metchie (vs. MIA); Jakobi Meyers (vs. IND); Christian Watson (vs. CHI); Chris Godwin (vs. NO); Courtland Sutton & Pat Bryant (vs. LV); Devaughn Vele (at TB)
Tight Ends 👍
- Brenton Strange (vs. IND) — 49% started
Start Over — Dallas Goedert (at LAC), T.J. Hockenson (vs. WAS), Dalton Schultz (at KC)
He probably won't pile up a ton of targets, but Strange may be able to keep things moving as a medium-volume, plus-efficiency TE, after putting up 5-93-0 and 3-45-1 on just nine total targets in his first two games back from injured reserve. WR Brian Thomas also returned, last week, but then Parker Washington — who has more overlap with Strange's usage anyway — left the game early due to a hip injury. Washington missed practice Wednesday, as did some of the key players from the Indianapolis defense. Slot corner Kenny Moore (illness) should be fine, but CB Sauce Gardner (calf) isn't expected to play, and DT DeForest Buckner (neck) is still on injured reserve. What's left is an unimposing defense that's given up 16.4 PPR points per game (28th) to tight ends.
- Other Good Matchups: Harold Fannin (vs. TEN); Mark Andrews (vs. PIT); Dawson Knox &/or Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) vs. CIN; Mason Taylor (vs. MIA)
Sit/Downgrade 👎
Quarterbacks 👎
Caleb Williams (at GB) — 30% started
Start Instead — Trevor Lawrence (vs. IND), Daniel Jones (at JAX), Jacoby Brissett (vs. LAR)
A December trip to Green Bay is often unappealing for QBs even when the hosts don't have a good defense. This year, the Packers are fielding arguably their best defense since the 2010 Super Bowl team, with Micah Parsons joining Xavier McKinney to give the unit real star power. Williams, meanwhile, is having a nice enough season for both real life (9-3 record) and fantasy (QB7), but there are obvious warning signs for regression, like his 58.1 completion percentage. The inconsistent passing efficiency mixed with Chicago's run-first approach on offense means Williams has risk of busting in fantasy even when the Bears win (something we saw in Week 11 at Minnesota and Week 7 vs. New Orleans).
- Other Tough Matchups: Joe Burrow (at BUF), Patrick Mahomes (vs. HOU), Jalen Hurts (at LAC), Caleb Williams (at GB), Geno Smith (vs. DEN), Aaron Rodgers (at BAL), Cam Ward (at CLE)
Running Backs 👎
Jaylen Warren (at BAL) — 70% started
Start Instead — D'Andre Swift (at GB), RJ Harvey (at LV), Kenneth Walker (at ATL)
Warren capably handles any role he's deployed in, be it as a three-down workhorse or passing-down specialist. The main drawback for fantasy has been Kenneth Gainwell, who tends to get most of the playing time in passing situations while also handling a fluctuating role as the change-of-pace back on early downs. Last week, Warren and Gainwell essentially rotated drives against Buffalo, with the former taking 10 carries and the latter getting 5 in a 26-7 loss to the Bills. Warren scored Pittsburgh's lone TD to salvage his fantasy day, but there's obvious risk of the production cratering if/when the Steelers are forced to abandon the run again.
Woody Marks (at KC) — 37% started
Start Instead — Kareem Hunt (vs. HOU), Devin Neal (at TB), Chris Rodriguez (at MIN)
Marks is expected to play through an ankle injury this week, but it may impact his role/usage even if he's the starter. That's the kind of risk we might accept with a productive player in a decent matchup, but Marks hasn't done much with his lead role — three straight weeks with single-digit PPR points — and doesn't seem likely to break through in a visit to Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs rank sixth in PPR points allowed to RBs (18.7 per game) despite being middle of the pack in terms of YPC (4.3).
- Other Tough Matchups: Ashton Jeanty (vs. DEN), Bam Knight (vs. LAR), Tyler Allgeier (vs. SEA), Tony Pollard (at CLE), Kyle Monangai (at GB)
The Steelers backfield is fully a 1A/1B backfield between Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell
In Week 13 they fully alternated drives:
1: 71% Warren/28% Gainwell
2: 25%/75%
3: 83%/17%
4: 43%/43%
5: 0%/100%
6: 100%/0%
7: 75%/25%
8: 0%/75%
9: 70%/30%via @FantasyPtsData
— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) December 1, 2025
Wide Receivers 👎
- Deebo Samuel (at MIN) — 60% started
Start Instead — Michael Pittman (at JAX), Christian Watson (vs. CHI), Terry McLaurin (at MIN)
The combination of a solid defense and terrible offense has made Minnesota a black hole for opposing WR production, with the Vikings allowing just 25.2 PPR points per game (2nd) on a league-low 14.1 targets. Samuel got seven targets last week, but that was in an overtime game where both Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz finished with double-digit targets. With McLaurin healthy, Samuel may just be a co-Option B (alongside Ertz) in an offense that tends to run a lot when not pressured by game script. I won't be surprised if Samuel only gets 2-4 targets and 1-2 carries this weekend at Minnesota.
Xavier Worthy (vs. HOU) — 47% started
Start Instead — Michael Wilson (vs. LAR), Khalil Shakir (vs. CIN), Alec Pierce (at JAX)
Worthy is now up to eight consecutive games below 12 PPR points, ahead of a matchup with arguably the best defense in the NFL. His usage ticked up a bit the past couple weeks, and there's definitely some bad luck involved with the recent lack of production, but this isn't the right matchup to bet on Worthy breaking through. He should have a big game (and at least one long-distance TD) at some point in December, considering he's consistently getting a handful of targets and playing alright in real life.
- Other Tough Matchups: Rashee Rice & Xavier Worthy (vs. HOU); A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith (at LAC); Tee Higgins (at BUF); Terry McLaurin (at MIN); Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston & Keenan Allen (vs. PHI); Tre Tucker (vs. DEN); Darnell Mooney (vs. SEA)
Tight Ends 👎
Oronde Gadsden (vs. PHI) — 27% started
Start Instead — Brenton Strange (vs. IND), Kyle Pitts (vs. SEA), Harold Fannin (vs. TEN)
I'm still fully on board with Gadsden as a long-term asset, but he has a ton of competition for targets and now has to face a top defense without the best version of QB Justin Herbert, who hopes to play Monday night after having surgery on his left hand seven days earlier. Even if Herbert is fine, Gadsden probably won't break out of his slump against an Eagles defense that's limited opposing tight ends to 9.1 PPR points per game (4th) and 5.3 yards per target (1st).
- Other Tough Matchups: Dallas Goedert (at LAC), Dalton Schultz (at KC), Mike Gesicki (at BUF)
Streaming Picks
For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)
QB Trevor Lawrence (vs. IND)
QB Sam Darnold (at ATL)
RB Devin Neal (at TB)
RB Chris Rodriguez (at MIN)
RB Kenneth Gainwell (at BAL)
RB Bam Knight (vs. LAR)
WR Jayden Higgins (at KC)
WR Adonai Mitchell (vs. MIA)
TE Harold Fannin (vs. TEN)
TE Colston Loveland (at GB)
TE Darren Waller (at NYJ)
K Wil Lutz (at LV)
K Matt Prater (vs. CIN)
D/ST Packers (vs. CHI)
D/ST Chiefs (vs. HOU)
For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 30 Percent Rostered)
QB Tyrod Taylor (vs. MIA)
QB Tua Tagovailoa (at NYJ)
RB Tyjae Spears (at CLE)
WR Devaughn Vele (at TB)
WR Isaac TeSlaa (vs. DAL)
WR Malik Washington (at NYJ)
WR John Metchie (vs. MIA)
TE Mason Taylor (vs. MIA)
K Will Reichard (vs. WAS)
D/ST Dolphins (at NYJ)
D/ST Titans (at CLE)
D/ST Commanders (at MIN)
For Deep Leagues (Under 10 Percent Rostered)
QB Tyler Shough (at TB)
RB Michael Carter (vs. LAR) - if Demercado doesn't play
RB Samaje Perine (at BUF)
RB Ty Johnson (vs. CIN)
RB Jeremy McNichols (at MIN)
RB Jaleel McLaughlin (at LV)
WR Pat Bryant (at LV)
WR Dontayvion Wicks (vs. CHI)
WR Greg Dortch (vs. LAR) - if he plays and MHJ doesn't
WR Tom Kennedy (vs. DAL)
TE Colby Parkinson (at ARZ)
TE AJ Barner (at ATL)
TE Dawson Knox (vs. CIN) - if Kincaid is out again
TE Ross Dwelley (vs. DAL)
K Harrison Mevis (at ARZ)
K Riley Patterson (at NYJ)
D/ST Jets (vs. MIA)
