This article is part of our FantasyDraft NFL series.
Each week, RotoWire will provide picks and values for your FantasyDraft lineups. Users have a salary cap of $100,000 to select a lineup comprised of a quarterback, two running backs, two receivers, a tight end, one FLEX spot, a kicker and a defense. The scoring is standard point-per-reception.
FantasyDraft is running two headline contests this weekend, each with $12,500 of built-in overlay:
- NFL $50K War Room, $25 entry fee
- NFL $50K Gunslinger, $25 entry fee
Without further ado, here are our fantasy football values and picks for Week 16 on FantasyDraft. This may include a top-tier option (star), a value play (value) and a cheap play (punt) at each position.
Quarterback
Star: Matthew Stafford $14,000 vs. Bears
Nearly every column you read this week will have a player from the Lions in the content, whether it be Stafford, Joique Bell, Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, or even the Lions defense. On FantasyDraft, Stafford is the top quarterback choice at his price for multiple reasons.
Stafford will face a secondary that has allowed six touchdowns in the last two games and 21 passing touchdowns in the last seven games. Since Week 8, the Bears have faced five top-tier fantasy quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Stafford, Tony Romo, and Drew Brees). In those six games, the quarterbacks have torched Chicago's defense for a combined 1,665 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 138 fantasy points. That's an average of 333 yards, 3.8 touchdown passes and 27.6 fantasy points.
Stafford struggled earlier this season, but with Megatron now back at full health, the Lions quarterback is a different animal. In his career with Johnson, Stafford has averaged 22.4 fantasy points, as opposed to 17.84 without him, per RotoViz' Game Splits App.
Running Back
Star: Tre Mason $13,200
It's not often that you'll see a rookie running back as the star pick of the week, but Mason's matchup gives him that status this weekend. The Rams face a Giants defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Giants run defense has been much improved of late, but those performances were against subpar rushing attacks. In the last three weeks, the Giants have allowed just 149 yards on 47 carries against Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Washington -- three teams rank 25th, 27th, and 20th in the NFL in rushing, respectively.
Prior to that stretch, the Giants allowed 11 or more fantasy points to opposing running backs in every single game, while allowing teams with top-tier rushing attacks (Cowboys and Seahawks) to combine for 84 fantasy points in three games.
The Rams aren't a top-tier rushing offense, but they have faced some of the best rush defenses in the NFL over the last two months in Arizona (twice), Washington, Denver, San Francisco, Kansas City, San Diego and Seattle. All of these teams are ranked in the top 12 in defense against running backs. The only plus-matchup for Mason and the Rams in the last two months has come against the Raiders, in which Mason totaled over 37 fantasy points. You have to dig deep to find these numbers, so Mason may not be owned by many, giving him even more value on FantasyDraft.
Value/Punt: Joseph Randle $8,300
If DeMarco Murray (hand) can't play this weekend, Randle is the Cowboys running back to target. Randle has outperformed Lance Dunbar this season, totaling eight more carries while averaging 7.0 yards per tote with two touchdowns. Murray has been the workhorse for Dallas, amassing over 79 percent of the carries, so if Randle draws the start, he could be in line for at least 15 carries.
Dallas faces the Colts, who have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. With the Cowboys running the ball at a 51-49 split, Randle will see his fair share of work against a poor rush defense.
Wide Receiver
Star: DeAndre Hopkins $14,000
As the 13th highest priced receiver, Hopkins may come off as expensive this weekend on FantasyDraft, but his matchup gives him a high probability of reaching value. The Ravens have given up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season, allowing the most catches and yards to wideouts in the NFL this season. Baltimore has only given up 15 touchdowns to opposing receivers. With the amount of catches and yards given up by Baltimore, Hopkins has a high floor this weekend, which makes him an attractive option on FantasyDraft.
Of course, the Texans quarterback situation does make me pause with concern. Ryan Fitzpatrick (broken leg) is out for the season and Tom Savage (knee) has been ruled out, which leaves Case Keenum as the likely started. Last year with Keenum, Hopkins was targeted 5.5 times per game, but only caught 22 passes. This year, Hopkins is clearly the top option in the Texans' passing game, but his production could drop off with Keenum under center. But if you believe in the matchup, Hopkins is the guy.
Tight End
Value/Punt: Dwayne Allen $11,800
Allen is the cheaper tight end options on the Colts, as Coby Fleener's price still hasn't dropped. Even without the price discount, Allen is the clear tight end to select from the Colts offense, as he has scored a touchdown in seven of 10 games this season. The Colts face a Cowboys defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends, including a league-leading 92 catches. Dallas has allowed opposing tight ends to reach double-digit fantasy points seven times this season, and Allen has reached that plateau five times, with another two games of nine fantasy points. Fleener has taken some targets from Allen, but Allen is the clear favorite in the red zone, making him a value play this weekend.
Kicker
Matt Prater $7.800
Prater goes well with Stafford for a mini-stack of the Lions. The Bears have given up the most fantasy points to kickers, and Prater's price is only $300 more than the minimum on FantasyDraft.
Defense
Seattle Seahawks $6,900
The Cardinals are starting Ryan Lindley at quarterback this week. Lindley has thrown for zero touchdowns and seven interceptions in his NFL career, and the Seahawks' defense has been on fire of late, scoring 52 fantasy points in the last four weeks while allowing just 27 points total in the last four games. Seattle will be highly owned this weekend, so if you want to pivot to another defense, the Ravens face the Texans, who will be starting their fourth-string quarterback.
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