1. RB Woody Marks made his first NFL start in Week 10 and took 78% of snaps.
- Key W10 Stats: 60% Route Share | 17 of 23 RB Opportunities (74%) | 1-Yard TD Run
Marks' dominance of Houston's Week 10 backfield work was perhaps exacerbated by negative game script, but we first saw clear intention to expand the rookie's role, beginning with making him the nominal starter over Nick Chubb.
Marks toted the rock on Houston's first two snaps, which was followed by Chubb coming in for three straight snaps (and two touches). Marks then subbed back in for the opening drive, and Chubb wasn't seen again until late in the third quarter. During that stretch, Marks was on the field for 4-of-4 snaps inside Jacksonville's 5-yard line, taking two carries in the process, including his one-yard TD run on a second-down play.
At halftime, Marks had a 77% snap share and eight of 10 RB opportunities, with Chubb getting two opportunities on three snaps (10%) and passing-down specialist Dare Ogunbowale handling four snaps (13%). Chubb actually did more in the second half, with four touches on 17% snap share, but Marks was still at 81% snap share, while Ogunbowale took just one snap even though the Texans fell behind 29-10.
The potential complication here is that Chubb had arguably his best game of the year from a real-life standpoint, with his five carries producing gains of 3, 19, 6, 12 and 7. Those last two came on the final, game-winning drive in an epic comeback, albeit shortly after a sequence where Marks took carries for 5, 6 and 5 yards on three straight plays.
I think we'll still see games where Chubb gets a bunch of carries, be it due to the matchup or game script, but this no longer looks like a 1A/1B situation. It appears Marks is the starter and lead back, with strong odds to lead the team in carries in any type of game script.
2. RB Aaron Jones played 72% of snaps in Week 10, including 75% pre-halftime.
- Key W10 Stats: 9 of 10 RB opportunities pre-halftime | 65% Route Share
One might look at Minnesota's Week 10 backfield workloads and assume that negative game script helped Jones take a much larger share than Jordan Mason. Actually, Mason got four of his five touches after halftime, while Jones got nine of the team's 10 RB opportunities before the break — seven days after suffering an AC joint sprain. What's more, Jones had similarly dominated playing time and touches in Week 9 before exiting early with the aforementioned shoulder injury.
The other takeaway here is that the Vikings were still running the ball some while trailing by multiple scores against a good team. It's the latest sign that Kevin O'Connell rightfully doesn't trust J.J. McCarthy the way he trusted his previous QBs, which means more of the offensive burden will fall on the RBs if the Vikings stay reasonably competitive. Jones might have been better off last year with a slightly lesser share of a far superior offense, but he's at least back on track now as a fantasy RB2, while Mason is merely an (overrated) handcuff.
3. RB TreVeyon Henderson took 15 of New England's last 16 RB touches in Week 10.
- Key W10 Stats: 83% Snap Share | 72% Route Share | 55-yard TD + 69-yard TD
Henderson started Sunday's game but was quickly subbed out for Terrell Jennings, who got each of the team's first four RB carries before Henderson got a couple of carries midway through New England's second drive of the game. Jennings was then injured on a pass play to start the next drive, knocking him out for the rest of the game and leaving Henderson to play 90% of snaps from that point forward.
Henderson's first carry went for 16 yards, and he later had TD runs of 55 and 69 yards. His other 11 carries went for: 0, 1, 5, 0, 0, 2, 1, 3, -2, -4, 1. Plus, the first TD run was on a perfectly executed play where Henderson essentially just ran straight forward. That's not to deny his talent, or that he played a big part in Sunday's win, but the Patriots may not be impressed as the box score and highlights would seem to suggest.
That said, Henderson may be the only show in town Thursday night, with Rhamondre Stevenson (foot) in danger of missing a third straight game, while Jennings faces a short turnaround to heal from an injury that he said isn't serious. With the Patriots favored by nearly two touchdowns, Henderson looks like a fantastic Week 11 lineup option, even if there's still potential for workload frustration in the not-so-distant future.
4. RB Blake Corum has three straight games with either 12 or 13 carries.
- Key W7-10 Stats: 33% Snap Share | 39 of 96 RB Opportunities (41%)
Corum's past incursions on Kyren Williams' workload were arguably overstated, coming in blowouts or the immediate aftermath of Williams losing a fumble or getting banged up. Invariably, Williams re-asserted himself in the following game.
What we've seen the past few weeks is something different, albeit with game script exaggerating the raw carry totals (the Rams have won four straight games by 14+ points). The funny thing there is that Williams has actually taken more garbage-time work than Corum, accounting for nine of 10 carries on the final drive of the team's past two games. In Week 9, it was perhaps just an effort to get Williams over 100 yards. In Week 10, you might argue the 49ers still had a slight chance to comeback, down by 16 points with three minutes remaining.
To me, that looks like Sean McVay giving his starter some carries that would go to a backup or third-stringer on most teams. Williams is still the lead guy, and his pre-halftime workload shares remain solid, but we've now seen three straight games where the Rams leaned into Corum heavily in the third quarter, well before what could be considered garbage time.
Looking at only Q3 of the past three games, Corum has a 51% snap share and 17 of 28 RB opportunities (61%). That may change some if the Rams are trailing or in a closer game, but it's still bad news for Williams' fantasy value that Corum is being used as a sort of set-up man (and also making role progress around the fringes in other areas).
It's not enough to make Corum a lineup option in most leagues, but it does take a chunk out of Williams' value while also increasing the odds that Corum would handle a huge role in the event of a Williams injury.
5. RB Chris Rodriguez (shoulder) played 68% of snaps pre-halftime in Week 10.
- Key W10 Stats: 1 Snap After Halftime (Shoulder Injury)
The Commanders made Rodriguez a team captain and starter for Week 10, giving him 68% of snaps and six of 10 RB opportunities in the first half, including a goal-line TD. He finished the half with a 6-16-1 rushing line and no targets, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols splitting the remaining work.
The Commanders then turned to Croskey-Merritt for the start of the second half, giving him five straight carries for 18 yards on the initial series. Rodriguez came back in for the next drive, but he injured his shoulder on the first play and missed the rest of the game. Croskey-Merritt then took 63% of snaps and four of eight RB opportunities after Rodriguez's injury, sharing what was mostly garbage-time work with Jeremy McNichols.
6. RB Tyrone Tracy played 66% of snaps in Week 10.
- Key W10 Stats: 15 of 26 RB Opportunities | 40% Route Share
Devin Singletary took 11 touches for 73 yards, but Tracy essentially doubled his backfield mate for both snap and route share, marking a change from Week 9 when Singletary played 55% of snaps and the touches were divided 50/50.
During Sunday's loss at Chicago, in which the Giants were leading for most of the afternoon, Tracy took at least 57% of snaps and three touches in each quarter. Singletary was steadily involved throughout, but his touch and snap totals were either the same as Tracy's or lower in every quarter.
A new coach could mean another change, but Week 10 at least brought some hope for anyone hoping to get RB2 or FLEX value from Tracy down the stretch.
7. WR Parker Washington led the Jaguars in Week 10 routes (93%) and targets (7).
- Key W7-10 Stats: 25.2% Target Share | 35.8% Air-Yard Share | 15.1 PPR per game
Behind Washington, the Jags used a mix of Tim Patrick (64% routes, 0 targets), Jakobi Meyers (50% routes, 3 targets, 3-41-0), Dyami Brown (39% routes, 1 target) and Austin Trammell (25% routes, 3 targets, 2-33-0). Things won't stay this way, with Meyers and/or Brian Thomas (ankle) inevitably taking more of the routes and targets soon enough.
However, Washington is now locked into a top-three role, with a real chance to lead the team in targets (both from here on out and the season as a whole). His 25.0% target rate is already tops on the team, nearly doubling his 14.0% mark from a year ago (across 363 routes).
Washington probably isn't good enough to stay well above 20% in the long run, but he might stay there temporarily due to a shortage of other options. On the other hand, there are still plenty of variables, including Meyers' potential role growth and TE Brenton Strange (IR - quad) returning to practice this week.
For the short term, we at least know Travis Hunter (IR - knee) won't be back until next year, and Thomas is presumably no better than 50/50 for Week 11 against the Chargers (he's recovering from a high-ankle sprain). In other words, we could see a few more games of Washington in a featured role, even if critics are correct that he's eventually just a No. 3 receiver.
8. WR Jayden Higgins had a 55% route share and 97 air yards in Week 10
- Key W10 Stats: 58% Snap Share | 5-42-1 (7 Targets)
The Texans still rotated their WRs behind Nico Collins, but with more of the playing time and targets going to Higgins and Jaylin Noel (36% routes, 4-35-0, 4 targets), while Christian Kirk dropped to 47% route share (3 targets) and Xavier Hutchinson dipped slightly to 53% (0 targets).
Higgins played just 31% of snaps in the first quarter, but he then took 76% in the second and third quarters, and 53% in the fourth. He played 54% of snaps in 11 personnel, up from 43% the week before. In terms of snap/route/target shares, this was Higgins' best role yet in a game where Collins was healthy.
We can't necessarily assume Higgins' playing time will grow more in future weeks, but the possibility makes him an appealing bench stash.
9. WR Jaylen Waddle has 51.7% of Miami's air yards since Tyreek Hill's injury
- Key W5-10 Stats: 24.0% Target Share | 3.03 YPRR | 14.4 aDOT | 16.0 PPR per game
The volume is excellent, though perhaps not surprising, given Waddle's talent and Miami's poor alternatives at WR. What's been surprising for a lot of people, including myself, is that the Dolphins have been competitive (albeit inconsistent) rather than falling apart after an ugly start.
Part of that is due to Waddle's performance, averaging 3.03 yards per route and 11.3 yards per target in six games since Hill's season-ending injury. During that time, Waddle accounts for 33 of Miami's 67 targets beyond the first-down marker and eight of 14 targets more than 20 yards downfield. His role looks strong enough for WR2 fantasy value, even if the efficiency inevitably dips some and Miami's rejuvenated rushing game remains a factor.
10. TE Colston Loveland dropped to 56% route share in Week 10.
- Key W10 Stats: 61% Snap Share | 4-55-0 (4 Targets) | 40 Air Yards
Loveland looked good again this past Sunday, catching each of his four targets for 55 yards, but he was nonetheless back in the timeshare we saw earlier this season prior to Cole Kmet's injury problems. There was some thought Loveland's recent performance would allow the added playing time during Kmet's absence to stick once the veteran returned to the lineup. That might still happen before the end of the season, but Kmet handled a 67% snap share and 56% route share (with just two targets) during Sunday's win over the Giants.
