NFL Box Score Breakdown: 10 Usage Trends to Know for Week 8

Advanced stats and usage trends from Week 7 can help fantasy managers optimize lineups for Week 8 and beyond.
NFL Box Score Breakdown: 10 Usage Trends to Know for Week 8
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1. RBs Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle rotated by drive in Week 7.

  • Key Stats Hubbard:  54% snaps  /  17 opportunities (14 carries, 3 targets)  /  55 Total Yards
  • Key Stats Dowdle:    47% snaps  /  19 opportunities (17 carries, 2 targets)  /  96 Total Yards

Hubbard got the start and took all five carries (plus a target) on a lengthy opening drive, but Rico Dowdle came out for the next series and rotated from there. The pattern of alternating drives was broken for a few snaps here and there, but seemingly based on fatigue (rather than subbing one guy in for specific situations like third-and-long or short-yardage carries).

Hubbard ended up with more routes/targets and Dowdle with more carries, in part because Dowdle had more success on his rush attempts and thus set up the Panthers for more running situations on his drives. Hubbard got stuffed at the line a bunch of times, setting up passing situations and boosting his route share (50%, compared to Dowdle's 26%).

The Panthers never deviated from their drive-share plan, apart from brief substitutions on longer drives and Dowdle coming in for a couple of kneeldowns at the very end. That doesn't mean the split will be the same next week, but it was a true 50/50 deal in Hubbard's first game back from a calf injury

               

2. RB Rhamondre Stevenson took 93% of snaps before the fourth quarter in Week 7.

  • Key Stats W7:  18 of 19 RB opportunities pre-Q4  /  18-88-1 rushing + 2 targets

RB Treveyon Henderson took 29% of snaps and nine of the 22 RB carries in Week 6, the first game after Antonio Gibson's ACL tear. One week later, Henderson could barely get on the field, sinking to 14% snap share and two carries (no targets) while Stevenson rarely left the field until garbage time.

Making matters worse for Henderson, the Patriots turned to Terrell Jennings at the very end of the game. It was garbage time more so than a true close-out situation, but Mike Vrabel apparently liked what he saw.

That's all bad news for Henderson, but it does look like Stevenson will have a ton of fantasy value if he can avoid fumbling it away (a massive 'if'). The Patriots clearly aren't pleased with Henderson, and the results haven't been good on his limited chances, but I'd still recommend keeping him on fantasy benches, if only because the Patriots have a decent offense and shaky alternatives. There's still a scenario, though it seems distant now, in which Henderson eventually becomes the lead back, flawed or not.

Of course, if the Patriots are smart they'll trade for backfield help so that they aren't stuck between a rock and a hard place with Stevenson's fumbling and whatever the issue is for Henderson.

                     

3. TE Oronde Gadsden has 17 targets and 232 yards over the past two weeks.

  • Key Stats W6-7:   77% Snap Share  /  75% Route Share  /  18.5% Targets  /  20.1% Air Yards        

The asterisk here is that Justin Herbert attempted 93 passes over the past two games. Still, Gadsden's per-route target rate is surprisingly strong (21%) for someone sharing an offense with Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston.

Gadsden's snap and route shares have grown with each passing game since his Week 3 debut, with both numbers landing above 70% in back-to-back games now*. His 7-164-1 receiving line this past Sunday is the headline, but Gadsden also had 7-68-0 the week before and 5-46-0 back in Week 3.

A lack of production in Weeks 4-5 reduced fantasy interest despite modest increases in playing time, with Gadsden then becoming a popular add after last week's 68-yard performance. In leagues where he wasn't already rostered or picked up last week, Gadsden arguably becomes the top priority on waivers for Week 8. 

*Despite Will Dissly returning from an injury. Dissly is barely playing now, nor is Tyler Conklin.

    

4. WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have 87 percent of air yards from Joe Flacco.

  • Key Stats for Chase in W6-7:    35 Targets (41%)  /  259 Air Yards (47%)  /  26-255-2
  • Key Stats for Higgins in W6-7:  18 Targets (21%)  /  222 Air Yards (40%)  /  11-158-1

Ja'Marr Chase set franchise records for catches (16) and targets (23) in Thursday's win over the Steelers. He had 10 catches and 12 targets in the first game with Flacco, and both matchups were against expensive, veteran-laden defenses.

Chase's aDOT is at just 7.4 with Flacco — down from 9.7 in Weeks 1-5 — but that might help him sustain a target share around/above 30%*. The 41 percent number through two weeks isn't sustainable, but it doesn't need to be for Chase to return to high-end WR1 status (something that he's now done).

Higgins, meanwhile, is back in play as a WR2 (in a WR-thin environment league-wide) after completely tanking with Jake Browning under center. Higgins got just 16.8 percent of the targets from Browning, compared to 21.2 percent from Flacco so far. And he caught just eight of the 20 targets (40%) from Browning, compared to 11 of 18 from Flacco (61%).

*Chase got 27.9% of Cincinnati's targets in 2024.

      

5. RB Jaylen Warren got 21 of 26 RB opportunities (81%) in Week 7.

  • Key Stats W7:   65% Snap Share  /  44% Route Share  /  158 Total Yards

Warren had a larger role in his second game back from a knee injury, even though it was a Thursday game. He took full advantage, with 158 total yards on 20 touches, only missing a TD (and a win) to round out what could've been a perfect night. There's no guarantee things stay this heavily in Warren's favor, but his fantasy managers should feel at least a little bit better ahead of a tough Week 8 matchup with Green Bay.

          

6. WR Travis Hunter put up 8-101-1 on 14 targets in a Week 7 loss to the Rams.

  • Key Stats W7:    89% Route Share  /  115 Air Yards (both career highs)

The last game before Jacksonville's bye brought all kinds of fun surprises. First, there was Parker Washington replacing Dyami Brown* as a regular in three-wide formations, which eventually led to Washington getting 10 targets. After that, Brian Thomas appeared to be laboring through a shoulder injury and had his snaps scaled back, seeing just two incomplete targets on 61% snap share after halftime.

Last but not least, Travis Hunter went wild in the fourth quarter with 4-71-1 on five targets, highlighted by a 34-yard TD that cut the Rams' lead to 28-7 with 9:06 remaining. It would've been more encouraging to see the same production before garbage time (and/or before Thomas was limited), but it's nonetheless a positive sign, especially because Hunter actually got some downfield looks.

Before Sunday, Hunter had seen just four targets 20-plus yards downfield and five in the range of 10-19 yards. Against the Rams, he saw three passes 20-plus yards downfield (including the TD) and another two in the range of 10-19 yards (catching both, for 37 total yards). We'd already seen minor progress with stuff like aDOT and average route depth since the first couple weeks of the season, and what happened Sunday might have been the floodgates opening.

On the other hand, it's possible Thomas comes back healthy after a bye and reasserts himself as the top option in a passing game that's frankly been disappointing and inefficient. Unleashing Hunter downfield might help, but it won't fix Trevor Lawrence or the offensive line. I'm not sure what happens next, but Week 7 was the best sign we've seen yet.

*Washington is a worthwhile addition in deep leagues, in case he has a similar role post-bye.

               

7. WR Tez Johnson has 162 air yards and two TDs over the past two weeks

  • Key Stats W6-7:   77% Route Share  /  12 Targets (16.4%)  /  162 AY (23.9%)  /  5-103-2

With Chris Godwin (fibula) and Jalen McMillan (neck) uncertain to be back even after a Week 9 bye, it appears Johnson and Sterling Shepard will join Emeka Egbuka as the regular wide receivers (for at least one game, and possibly longer). Plus, Johnson may have a regular role even when Godwin returns, with the latter potentially going to the slot while Shepard heads to the bench.

Johnson has been a big-play threat more so than a target hog so far, but he could have fantasy value on a handful of targets per game when they're coming from Baker Mayfield and often located deep downfield / toward the end zone. Johnson also got limited playing time before his emergence the past two weeks, and held up reasonably well. 

Overall, he's been targeted on 19 of 107 routes (17.8%) and produced 10-170-2, good for 1.6 yards per route and 8.9 YPT. Similar numbers stretched over a full-time workload in a strong offense could make Johnson playable as a fantasy WR3, especially if Godwin remains out into November (and/or is far from his old self upon returning).

           

8. TE Colston Loveland played 93% of snaps after Cole Kmet's early exit in Week 7.

  • Key W7 Stats:   2 of Chicago's 7 targets post-Kmet / 4 targets overall (3-24-0)

We don't know much about Kmet's injury yet, but even a brief absence could give Loveland the runway he needs for a breakthrough. The small sample after Kmet's Week 7 exit hints at potential for Loveland to run 30-plus routes this Sunday in Baltimore, albeit against a defense that may be rejuvenated and highly motivated after a Week 7 bye.

        

9. WR Rashee Rice got 10 targets on 19 routes in his 2025 debut.

  • Key W7 Stats:   44% route share  /  4 targets inside 10-yard line (two TDs)

Rice's limited playing time wasn't just a product of garbage time, but his per-play usage was in mid-season form (and then some). There was nothing downfield -- just 12 air yards -- but he was targeted on more than half of his routes, including four of KC's six targets inside the 10-yard line.

Hollywood Brown saw one of the others, and scored on it, but he was the biggest loser in terms of snap share (33%) and route share (47%), while JuJu Smith-Schuster (50% route share, 3-35-0) and Tyquan Thornton (31% route share, 82 air yards on 2 targets, 1-39-0) more or less retained their part-time roles from the previous couple of weeks.

Someone figures to give up more snaps to Rice in the coming weeks, giving Patrick Mahomes his full stockpile of weapons as he makes a charge for the MVP award and overall-QB1 status in fantasy. 

    

10. Wan'Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson combined for 45% target share Weeks 5-7.

  • Key W5-7 Stats for Robinson:   26 targets (26.5%)  /  212 AY (23.1%)  /  17-209-1
  • Key W5-7 Stats for Johnson:     18 targets (18.4%)  /  115 AY (12.5%)  /  11-126-3

Robinson and Johnson have both gotten the volume bump that was discussed right after Malik Nabers suffered an ACL tear in Week 7. The surprise? New York's offense is actually decent, led by LT Andrew Thomas and rookies Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo

Johnson won't keep scoring TDs like this, but he might score a whole lot more than anyone expected pre-season. Robinson, meanwhile, is averaging 8.0 yards per target and 2.1 yards per route in three games without Nabers. Oddly enough, Robinson's cumulative numbers from the past three games (seen above) are incredibly similar to his numbers from the first four games (18-237-1 on 27 targets). 

The other difference, besides the general bump in usage, is that Robinson has been consistent the past three games, with at least five catches and seven targets in each contest. Over the first four weeks, he had one massive game (8-141-2), one middling game (6-55-0) and two complete duds (4-30-0 combined).

Robinson's aDOT is down a bit over the last three weeks, at 8.2, but that's still miles better than last season (4.9) and perhaps part of what's allowing him to draw targets more consistently. It also helps that both he and Johnson have rarely left the field since Nabers got injured, with Robinson handling 93.4% route share and Johnson at 84.0%. Lil'Jordan Humphrey was also a full-time player, or close to it, the past two weeks, but he put up a goose egg in Week 7 after his surprising Week 6.

   

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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