Week 16 was relatively pain free in Survivor world. Hopefully, that was the case for you. The Chiefs and Lions lost, but only the truly desperate picked those teams anyway.
In my pool, all survived for the second week in a row. Of the original 451 entrants, nine remain (2.0 percent).
Before picking a Survivor team this week, be sure to consult our NFL injury report and the latest fantasy football news. Also check out the weekly projections to see how this week's matchups shape up. And this time of year, it's important to consult the NFL weather report too.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
Odds from BetMGM. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players up to $1,500 in bonus bets.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BENGALS | Cardinals | 39.8% | 315 | 75.9% | 9.60 |
| Steelers | BROWNS | 17.3% | 155 | 60.8% | 6.77 |
| Cowboys | COMMANDERS | 17.1% | 292.5 | 74.5% | 4.36 |
| Patriots | JETS | 8.9% | 750 | 88.2% | 1.04 |
| Jaguars | COLTS | 7.3% | 270 | 73.0% | 1.96 |
| Broncos | CHIEFS | 6.1% | 675 | 87.1% | 0.78 |
| Rams | FALCONS | 3.9% | 400 | 80.0% | 0.78 |
| Lions | VIKINGS | 3.3% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 0.75 |
| Buccaneers | DOLPHINS | 2.6% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.81 |
| Saints | TITANS | 1.8% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.78 |
| Seahawks | PANTHERS | 1.2% | 315 | 75.9% | 0.29 |
| PACKERS | Ravens | 1.1% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.42 |
| 49ERS | Bears | 0.9% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.35 |
| Giants | RAIDERS | 0.7% | 110 |
Week 16 was relatively pain free in Survivor world. Hopefully, that was the case for you. The Chiefs and Lions lost, but only the truly desperate picked those teams anyway.
In my pool, all survived for the second week in a row. Of the original 451 entrants, nine remain (2.0 percent).
Before picking a Survivor team this week, be sure to consult our NFL injury report and the latest fantasy football news. Also check out the weekly projections to see how this week's matchups shape up. And this time of year, it's important to consult the NFL weather report too.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
Odds from BetMGM. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players up to $1,500 in bonus bets.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BENGALS | Cardinals | 39.8% | 315 | 75.9% | 9.60 |
| Steelers | BROWNS | 17.3% | 155 | 60.8% | 6.77 |
| Cowboys | COMMANDERS | 17.1% | 292.5 | 74.5% | 4.36 |
| Patriots | JETS | 8.9% | 750 | 88.2% | 1.04 |
| Jaguars | COLTS | 7.3% | 270 | 73.0% | 1.96 |
| Broncos | CHIEFS | 6.1% | 675 | 87.1% | 0.78 |
| Rams | FALCONS | 3.9% | 400 | 80.0% | 0.78 |
| Lions | VIKINGS | 3.3% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 0.75 |
| Buccaneers | DOLPHINS | 2.6% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.81 |
| Saints | TITANS | 1.8% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.78 |
| Seahawks | PANTHERS | 1.2% | 315 | 75.9% | 0.29 |
| PACKERS | Ravens | 1.1% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.42 |
| 49ERS | Bears | 0.9% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.35 |
| Giants | RAIDERS | 0.7% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.33 |
| CHARGERS | Texans | 0.3% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.14 |
| BILLS | Eagles | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.03 |
Home teams CAPITALIZED.
There is no pot-odds play this week, and even if the numbers above suggested there was, it might not be relevant for your specific pool.
In any event, this week is pretty straightforward because the choices are few. Keep in mind two factors:
1. Playoff Scenarios - Be sure to consider playoff scenarios. The Steelers, for example, might have nothing to play for this week.
2. Week 18 - Patriots (vs. Dolphins), Bills (vs. Jets), Eagles (vs. Commanders), Rams (vs. Cardinals), Packers (at Vikings), Jaguars (vs. Titans), Texans (vs. Colts) look like the best options, meaning avoid those teams this week.
We haven't use the Broncos yet, so that's an easy pick for Week 17.
Got a tough call? Let us know in the comments.
Picks are in order of preference.
Week 17 Survivor Picks
New England Patriots (at Jets)
The Jets got throttled by the Saints last week. What are the Patriots going to do to them? Brady Cook, who has a 5.4 YPA and 1/6 TD/INT in three games this year, will start again for the Jets against a Patriots team playing for the division. Even if it wraps up the AFC East this week (with a win and a Bills loss), New England will still have the AFC's No. 1 seed to play for Week 18 against the Dolphins. So, they could be saved for next week.
Los Angeles Rams (at Falcons)
The Rams are coming off a horrific loss last Thursday, while the Falcons have won two in a row. Los Angeles has everything to play for this week and next when it faces the Cardinals. Expect the Rams to punish the Falcons, but saving the L.A. for next week works too.
Denver Broncos (at Chiefs)
The Broncos play the Chargers in Week 18, so this is the last opportunity to use them. It's a good one. Kansas City will start 2022 seventh-round pick Chris Oladokun, who has 16 career passes to his name (all last week), at quarterback. Facing an angry Broncos squad smarting over last week's tough loss and motivated to win the AFC West (with a win and a Chargers loss) is a tall task for an inexperienced quarterback with limited playmakers around him. It should be a merry Christmas for the Broncos.
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Cardinals)
The Bengals get the Cardinals and Browns, both at home, to end what has been a miserable year. Week 18 rivalry games don't necessarily make for good Survivor picks, though, so this is the week to use the Bengals. Losers of seven in a row, the Cardinals are severely hobbled by injuries and are just playing out the schedule.
Dallas Cowboys (at Commanders)
At home on Christmas should be worth something to the Commanders, but they could be down to 39-year-old Josh Johnson at quarterback. That doesn't bode well, to say the least. The Cowboys hope to snap a three-game losing streak that knocked them out of playoff contention. Dak Prescott and company should move up and down the field on Washington's putrid defense. Even if a gimpy Marcus Mariota plays, how will the Commanders keep up?
Detroit Lions (at Vikings)
The Lions have to win out to make the playoffs and get some help. Detroit has struggled against a tough schedule this season, but this matchup should provide some fun with the Vikings starting Max Brosmer for the injured J.J. McCarthy. Next week, the Lions play a Bears team that will have plenty for which to still play. This is the last Survivor opportunity for Detroit.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Dolphins)
The Buccaneers have lost three consecutive and six of seven but are still vying for the NFC South. The Dolphins are starting Quinn Ewers. Advantage Bucs.
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Browns)
It wouldn't necessarily be shocking if the Browns pulled the upset. Who is Aaron Rodgers throwing to with DK Metcalf out? Adam Thielen? But the Browns are no better. Shedeur Sanders has no protection and no one to throw to outside of Harold Fannin. None of that could end up mattering, however. If the Ravens lose Saturday, the Steelers will clinch the AFC North. In that case, the Steelers could treat it like a preseason game — are they going to expose Rodgers to Myles Garrett's quest for the NFL sack record? In a normal week, it would be better to just stay away. But in Week 17, you gotta do what you gotta do. And if that means taking the Steelers, provided the Ravens don't lose Saturday, then so be it.
Jacksonville Jaguars (at Colts)
The Philip Rivers story is fun, but the Colts aren't close to winning. Rivers can barely throw 10 yards and for some unknown reason Jonathan Taylor can't gain any traction. In the five games since Indianapolis' bye, Taylor has averaged 3.5 yards per rush with two touchdowns. However, the Jaguars play the Titans next week and will still have the AFC's No. 1 seed to play for, if not the AFC South. Saving the Jaguars for Week 18 is the better move.
Seattle Seahawks (at Panthers)
The Seahawks have taken care of inferior opponents this season, but the Panthers are still playing for the NFC South and are at home. For the truly desperate, sure, you could do a lot worse than the Seahawks this week. But this is no gimme.
