NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 7 Sunday Baller

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 7 Sunday Baller

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 7 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EDT and features 11 games. The Bills, Eagles, Rams and Vikings will all be on bye, taking a number of elite contributors at every position out of the mix. Additionally, the Thursday Night Football (Saints-Cardinals), Sunday Night Football (Steelers-Dolphins) and Monday Night Football (Bears-Patriots) matchups are excluded from the Sunday main slate. Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 7, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $250,000 to the top 2,700 finishers, including $50,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 14,700 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $300k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested plays for Week 7 include a veteran quarterback who might not be washed up just yet, a couple of prominent wide receivers ready to take their turn after watching teammates score multiple touchdowns last week, and a pair of workhorse running backs facing weak run defenses.

QUARTERBACK

Aaron Rodgers, GB at WAS ($26): Everyone seems to be writing Rodgers off after consecutive losses to the Jets and Giants, but while there's a strong argument to be made that both New York teams were significantly underrated heading into their meetings with the Packers, it's much tougher to make that argument about Washington. The 2-4 Commanders allowed a combined 7:0 TD:INT to Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts, and even with his struggles this season, Rodgers should be able to carve up Washington's secondary, whose stats are otherwise bolstered by having faced Trevor Lawrence, Cooper Rush, Ryan Tannehill and Justin Fields. If Rodgers can't find success here, it might indeed be time to reevaluate his standing as a fantasy QB, but this could also turn out be a terrific buy-low opportunity on the future Hall of Famer. After all, he did throw multiple touchdown passes in four consecutive games before being held to one by the Jets last week.

Honorable Mentions

Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. CLE ($40); Justin Herbert, LAC vs. SEA ($35); Joe Burrow, CIN vs. ATL ($33)

Against the Grainers

Patrick Mahomes, KC at SF ($35); Dak Prescott, DAL vs. DET ($32); Matt Ryan, IND at TEN ($24)

RUNNING BACK

Josh Jacobs, LV vs. HOU ($32): The Raiders rode Jacobs over their previous two games to the tune of 49 carries for 298 yards and three touchdowns, as well as 10 catches for 70 yards on 11 targets. After getting a chance to rest up during the Week 6 bye, Jacobs should be ready to take on a workhorse role again in a plus matchup against a Houston defense that's allowing 164.8 yards per game on the ground -- third most in the NFL. The Texans have also surrendered five touchdowns on the ground to running backs and another through the air in just five games.

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. DET ($20): Both Elliott and Tony Pollard ($19) should provide excellent value against a dreadful Detroit defense that's allowing a league-worst 167.6 rushing yards per game. Through five games, Detroit has given up 10 rushing touchdowns to nine different players. The only team that didn't get into the end zone on the ground against the Lions was New England, but Rhamondre Stevenson still delivered plenty of fantasy value in that game with a 161-yard rushing performance. Elliott gets the nod over Pollard in this ideal matchup due to the former's more consistent workload, as Zeke has carried the ball at least 15 times in four of his last five games and racked up 81 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries against the Eagles last week. Dak Prescott's expected return from a thumb injury also raises the ceiling of the entire Dallas offense.

Honorable Mentions

Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. SEA ($39); Leonard Fournette, TB at CAR ($27); Kenneth Walker, SEA at LAC ($23)

Against the Grainers

Dameon Pierce, HOU at LV ($24); Travis Etienne, JAX vs. NYG ($17); Latavius Murray, DEN vs. NYJ ($13)

WIDE RECEIVER

Deebo Samuel, SF vs. KC ($23): Samuel continues to demonstrate a remarkably high floor, with double-digit fantasy points in every game this season. Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most yards to wide receivers (1,069) and is tied with Pittsburgh for the most touchdowns allowed to the position at nine. Brandon Aiyuk could see a little more attention coming off a two-touchdown game, which should leave even more room for Samuel to do damage after the catch in a game that will likely require a strong performance from San Francisco's passing game to try to keep pace with a Patrick Mahomes-led attack.

Tee Higgins, CIN vs. ATL ($21): With top cornerback A.J. Terrell likely to follow around Ja'Marr Chase, Higgins should feast on a thin Atlanta secondary that's surrendered the third-most yards (1,077) and touchdowns (eight) to wide receivers, as well as the most receptions (92) to the position. Higgins has been terrific when healthy, notching 18 catches on 26 targets for 288 yards and two touchdowns in a three-game stretch prior to injuring his ankle. He wasn't 100 percent last week but still drew nine targets, and with another week to recover, Higgins should be closer to full strength. A healthy Higgins is a bargain given his hot start and coming off a 1,091-yard sophomore season.

Brandin Cooks, HOU at LV ($16): This could be a nice buy-low opportunity on Cooks, whose 42 targets are at least 15 more than any other member of the Texans. He has caught just 24 of those targets for 235 yards and one touchdown through five games, but the six-time 1,000-yard receiver has proven that he's capable of much more. Houston's expected to fall behind on the road, which should create a pass-heavy game script for an offense that lacks reliable targets besides Cooks. 

Honorable Mentions

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET at DAL ($26); Michael Pittman, IND at TEN ($23); CeeDee Lamb, DAL vs. DET ($23)

Against the Grainers

Mike Williams, LAC at SEA ($23); Romeo Doubs, GB at WAS ($17); JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC at SF ($15)

TIGHT END

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. CLE ($27): Given the wide gap between Travis Kelce and Andrews and all other options at tight end, you're better off paying up for one of those two rather than hoping a lesser player is able to exploit a favorable matchup. That decision's made even easier this week without the likes of Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert and Tyler Higbee available. Kelce's facing a 49ers defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards to tight ends, which leaves Andrews against a Browns defense that just allowed a combined 122 yards and a touchdown to New England's tight end duo of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith.

Honorable Mentions

Gerald Everett, LAC vs. SEA ($20); George Kittle, SF vs. KC ($18); Hayden Hurst, CIN vs. ATL ($17)

Against the Grainers

Travis Kelce, KC at SF ($28); Robert Tonyan, GB at WAS ($13); Greg Dulcich, DEN vs. NYJ ($10)

DEFENSE

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB at CAR ($21): Paying up for the priciest defense should be worth it this week, as any defense facing the Panthers should find success given the disaster the team's offense has been lately. The last time Carolina produced more than one offensive touchdown was Week 1, and the unit took another step back last week with PJ Walker under center rather than Baker Mayfield. Prior to hurting his neck late in the game, Walker threw for only 60 yards on 16 attempts, but he has already been announced as Carolina's Week 7 starter, setting up a Buccaneers defense that scored 26.0 fantasy points in Week 2 against the Saints for another big game against an NFC South rival.

Honorable Mentions:

Dallas Cowboys, DAL vs. DET ($20); Denver Broncos, DEN vs. NYJ ($18); Green Bay Packers, GB at WAS ($17)

Against the Grainers: 

New York Jets, NYJ at DEN ($16); Baltimore Ravens, BAL vs. CLE ($14); Las Vegas Raiders, LV vs. HOU ($10)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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