NFL Expert Picks: Week 16 Monday Night Football: Saints at Packers

NFL Expert Picks: Week 16 Monday Night Football: Saints at Packers

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

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New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers: Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 16

The New Orleans Saints (5-9) travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers (10-4) in an NFC conference matchup on Monday Night Football. The Saints are 3rd in the NFC South, while the Packers are 3rd in the NFC North.

New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds

Saints +14.5 (ESPN Bet -115) / Packers -14 (Bet MGM -110)

Saints ML (Caesars Sportsbook +900) / Packers ML (DraftKings Sportsbook -950)

Total OVER 43 (Fanatics Sportsbook -121) / UNDER 43.5 (Points Bet -115) 

The Packers opened as 5.0 point road favorites in Week 1, but a lot has changed since then on the Saints side due significant injuries virtually everywhere. The line has moved 9.5 points in favor of the Packers as the Saints are 3-9 after starting 2-0. The total opened 45.0 and it dropped to 41.5, but it then climbed back to 43.0. 

The majority of the bets (67%) have come in on the Packers, and the handle (76%) has also come in on the Packers which reflects that the "sharp" money has landed on. There is a 9% difference on bets versus handle.

The total has money on the Under at 67% of total bets, and 85% of the handle. The moneyline shows who has taken a position on the game, and the Packers have received 97% of the bets and 95% of the handle. 

Key Injuries

Saints -  QB Derek Carr (O), RB Alvin Kamara (O), WR Chris Olave (O), WR Rashid Shaheed (O), WR Marques Valdez-Scantling (Q), TE Taysom Hill (O)

Packers - S Evan Williams (O), CB Jaire Alexander (Q), LB Quay Walker (O), CB Javon Bullard (O)

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Saints vs. Packers Betting Picks 

The Packers are 10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS. The Under is 4-2-1 in the Packers seven home games and 7-6-1 overall.  The Saints are 5-9 SU and ATS (but 3-2 last 5). They are 7-7 on totals for Over/Unders.  

If you are betting the side in this game, I do think the key number of 14 will come into play. So you want to either lay -13.5 on the Packers or take +14.5 on the Saints. 

Saints vs. Packers Best Bet: UNDER 43.5 (PointsBet -115)

Secondary Bet: Jordan Love Under 29.5 Pass Attempts (ESPN Bet -120)

Packers vs. Saints Prediction

The Saints are missing so many players, yet their recent games have been lower scoring and somewhat competitive. I can see the Packers going heavy on the run game in the first half with hopes to build a 10-14 point lead and then going very conservative in the second half. 

Packers 26, Saints 13

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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