SUNDAY A.M.
Minnesota vs. Cleveland (+3.5), o/u 36.0 – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT at London
Carson Wentz is coming off a game in which he threw for 350 yards and two touchdowns, and it feels like he probably hurt his case to keep the starting job when J.J. McCarthy gets healthy, which seems about right given Wentz's career arc. Two costly INTs helped hand the Vikings their second loss of the year, but in his defense, the Steelers defense gave him almost no time in the pocket – Wentz was sacked six times behind an offensive line that was down three starters by the end of the game. That's a significant problem against a Myles Garrett-led pass rush that's in the top 10 in sacks and pressure rate, but fortunately DC Brian Flores' unit has mostly been up to the task of keeping the Vikings competitive during the team's apparently cursed trip to Europe.
Flores' job may get a lot easier Sunday too. Kevin Stefanski saw Brian Daboll get lucky when the Giants won in Jaxson Dart's first career start, despite it coming against a tough Chargers defense, and it didn't so much give him ideas as intrusive thoughts. Stefanski decided this week would be the perfect time to bench Joe Flacco for Dillon Gabriel, totally throwing the rookie to the wolves in the process — Minnesota is second in pressure rate and tied for fourth in blitz rate, and top five in takeaways. Gabriel could also be missing both his starting tackles and two of his top pass-catching options in Cedric Tillman and David Njoku. Quinshon Judkins looks like the real deal in the backfield at least, and Njoku's knee issue could open the door for that Harold Fannin breakout we've all been waiting for since Week 1, especially if the game plan is just to get the ball out of Gabriel's hands as quickly as possible.
Key Info
MIN injury report: QB J.J. McCarthy (out, ankle), RB Aaron Jones (IR, hamstring), LG Donovan Jackson (out, wrist), C Ryan Kelly (out, concussion), RT Brian O'Neill (out, knee), EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel (out, neck), LB Blake Cashman (IR, hamstring)
CLE injury report: WR Cedric Tillman (IR, hamstring), LT Dawand Jones (IR, knee), RT Jack Conklin (questionable, elbow), LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (PUP, neck)
Strong lean: WR Justin Jefferson (CLE 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: WR Jerry Jeudy (MIN 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong fade: RB Jordan Mason (CLE second in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards allowed to RBs)
Strong fade: QB Dillon Gabriel (MIN first in passing DVOA, third in passing yards allowed, t-second in passing TDs allowed)
NFL weather report: 10-15 mph winds, 20-30 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Mason gets held to 50 yards. Wertz throws for less than 200 yards but does find Jefferson for a TD. Judkins ekes out 60 yards. Gabriel also throws for less than 200 yards, and a Jonathan Greenard strip sack results in a Javon Hargrave touchdown. Vikings 17-3
EARLY SUNDAY
Houston at Baltimore (+2.5), o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Texans escaped the AFC South basement last week with a shutout win over the Titans, but there's still plenty to worry about with this team. Unlike a lot of teams playing this week the offensive line is healthy – the problem is, it just isn't good. C.J. Stroud's been sacked 10 times in four games and has a 4:3 TD:INT, and while he looked better against Tennessee, the quality of the opposition has to be taken into account. Woody Marks has worked his way into a backfield tandem with Nick Chubb, but his 3.9 YPC isn't particularly impressive and he's only recorded one broken tackle so far in the NFL – just to compare him to his rookie peers, Ashton Jeanty leads the league with 15, while Cam Skattebo already has six. Last week was the first time in 2025 the Houston offense managed at least 20 points or 300 total yards, and while it can take some time to adjust to a new scheme (new OC Nick Caley spent the prior two seasons with Sean McVay and the Rams), Stroud really doesn't have a whole lot to work with other than Nico Collins. DeMeco Ryans' defense is third in QB rating against, but it did just get to face Cam Ward.
It also probably won't have to face Lamar Jackson, which will help. Jackson suffered a hamstring injury in last week's loss to Kansas City, a game in which the Ravens continued to look less and less like themselves. The defense has coughed up at least 37 points in three of four games so far, and in all three of those contests it failed to produce a takeaway. To be fair, those games were also against Josh Allen and the Bills, and Jared Goff and the Lions, as well as Patrick Mahomes and KC. While I still like Stroud, the Texans just aren't on that level. More concerningly for fantasy GMs, Derrick Henry has been held to 50 rushing yards or less in three straight games and only scored one TD during that time, but the decline is due to as much to limited volume as it is him suddenly being easier to tackle. If Cooper Rush is under center instead of Lamar, John Harbaugh and OC Todd Monken may have no choice but to feed the big man and wear down the Texans' defense rather than getting cute. Rush is a competent backup QB, but if he needs to air it out a lot, it probably doesn't bode well for Baltimore.
Key Info
HOU injury report: RB Joe Mixon (NFI, foot), WR Tank Dell (PUP, knee), EDGE Denico Autry (PUP, knee), CB Jaylin Smith (IR, hamstring)
BAL injury report: QB Lamar Jackson (out, hamstring), LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, ankle), EDGE Nnamdi Madubuike (IR, neck), LB Roquan Smith (out, hamstring), CB Chidobe Awuzie (out, hamstring), CB Marlon Humphrey (out, calf), S Kyle Hamilton (questionable, groin)
Slight lean: TE Dalton Schultz (BAL 29th in DVOA vs. TE, t-27th in receptions, 29th in receiving yards allowed to TEs)
Slight lean: RB Derrick Henry (HOU 23rd in rushing DVOA, t-26th in rushing TDs allowed to RBs)
Slight fade: WR Jayden Higgins (BAL 10th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight fade: TE Mark Andrews / Isaiah Likely (HOU fifth in DVOA vs. TE, fifth in receiving yards allowed to TEs)
NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Marks leads the HOU backfield with 90 scrimmage yards, but Chubb punches in a short score. Stroud throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Collins and Schultz. Henry bounces back with 130 yards and a TD. Rush throws for 240 yards and a score to Rashod Bateman, and he avoids making any mistakes. Ravens 23-21
Miami at Carolina (+1), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Dolphins paid a heavy price for their first win of the season last week, losing Tyreek Hill to a gruesome knee injury that ended his 2025 campaign. Tua Tagovailoa tossed two TDs to Darren Waller instead, the third straight game the QB has produced multiple scores, but things aren't looking great overall for the Miami passing game. Tua's 69.3 percent completion rate remains at its usual elevated rate in Mike McDaniel's scheme, but his 6.6 YPA is a career low, and it's hard to imagine him stretching the field more without Hill. De'Von Achane has topped 90 scrimmage yards in three straight games while scoring twice, and the Dolphins may want to start relying more on him and Ollie Gordon, as much to try and burn clock and keep the defense off the field as anything else. Last week was the first time DC Anthony Weaver's unit kept the opposition under 30 points, but the Jets still topped 400 yards against them and only came up short on the scoreboard thanks to three giveaways. The Dolphins' defense also allowed this to happen, which, yikes. Minkah Fitzpatrick's probably still dizzy.
To rout, or not to rout. That's been the question for the Panthers to begin the year. Their one win was a 30-0 shellacking of the Falcons at home, but two of their three road losses have been by a combined 45 points, including last week's ugly 42-13 flop in New England. Bryce Young has managed to avoid committing any turnovers the last two weeks, but he's also produced just two TDs (one passing, one rushing) and thrown for a combined 271 yards with a 5.0 YPA. Maybe if the team still had Christian McCaffrey in the backfield that would be enough, but solid as he is, Chuba Hubbard ain't that guy. Tetairoa McMillan's looked the part of a WR1, but he's still looking for his first NFL touchdown as Young's struggles have put a firm cap on his production. The 2025 edition of DC Ejiro Evero's defense has been better than the 2024 edition, but it would have to be. Carolina sits a respectable eighth in QB rating against, and the run defense has gone from historically bad to merely rough, which is progress of a sort.
Key Info
MIA injury report: WR Tyreek Hill (IR, knee), LG Liam Eichenberg (PUP, undisclosed), RT Austin Jackson (IR, toe), K Jason Sanders (IR, hip), CB Storm Duck (out, ankle), CB Kader Kohou (IR, knee)
CAR injury report: RB Chuba Hubbard (out, calf), WR Jalen Coker (IR, quadriceps), TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (out, ankle), C Austin Corbett (IR, knee), RG Robert Hunt (IR, biceps), EDGE D.J. Wonnum (questionable, hip), CB Chau Smith-Wade (out, chest)
Strong lean: TE Darren Waller (CAR 32nd in DVOA vs. TE, 31st in receiving yards allowed to TEs)
Slight lean: QB Bryce Young (MIA 31st in passing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed to QBs)
Slight fade: WR Malik Washington (CAR sixth in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: RB Rico Dowdle (MIA t-second in total TDs allowed to RBs)
NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Achane pops for 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Tagovailoa throws for 220 yards and a score to Alec Ingold. Dowdle gains 80 yards. Young throws for 240 yards and a TD to McMillan while also running in a touchdown of his own. Panthers 23-20
Las Vegas (+6.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Last week's loss to the Bears was a gut punch, as the Raiders overcame four turnovers to do everything right on their final possession and set up Daniel Carlson for a game-winning field goal... except actually block it correctly for him. Now in the AFC West basement at 1-3, Vegas has a few winnable games left on their schedule, but this is beginning to look like a team headed for another nice draft pick in 2026. Ashton Jeanty is coming off a huge 155-scrimmage yard, three-TD effort, but he hasn't done much on the ground yet against teams with legitimate run defenses. Geno Smith is struggling with a 63.8 percent completion rate and more INTs (seven) tham TD passes (six), and Brock Bowers is still dealing with a nagging knee injury. Maxx Crosby, the team's one difference-maker on defense, also isn't 100 percent. It might be better in the long run for the Raiders if they just tank the season and improve the depth of the roster, but that's not what Pete Carroll was brought in to do.
The Colts fumbled away a chance to steal a road win against the Rams, but they're still 3-1 and the clock hasn't struck midnight yet for Daniel Jones. He committed his first turnovers of the year in that loss, but he's produced eight seven TDs in four games (four passes, three rushing) against only two INTs while completing 71.9 percent of his attempts (fourth in the NFL) with an 8.9 YPA (third). Jonathan Taylor is third in scrimmage yards with 527 and Tyler Warren has been as advertised, and if Jones keeps playing at a high level, Indy's offense alone makes them a playoff contender. The defense got roughed up for the first time in 2025 last week though, and DC Lou Anarumo's unit might be one that can make hay against weaker teams like the Dolphins and Titans but struggle against the likes of the Broncos and Rams. Their schedule the rest of the year appears to have a lot more of the latter than the former, so there could be some shootouts coming.
Key Info
LV injury report: TE Brock Bowers (questionable, knee), LT Kolton Miller (IR, ankle), CB Eric Stokes (questionable, knee)
IND injury report: WR Alec Pierce (out, concussion), CB Jaylon Jones (IR, hamstring), CB Kenny Moore (out, Achilles)
Strong lean: WR Tre Tucker (IND 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight lean: WR Michael Pittman (LV 21st in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong fade: WR Jakobi Meyers (IND second in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: TE Tyler Warren (LV ninth in DVOA vs. TE, third in receptions allowed, t-first in TDs allowed to TEs)
NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Jeanty picks up 60 yards. Smith throws for 220 yards and two TDs, hitting Tucker and Dont'e Thornton. Taylor churns out 110 combined yards and two scores. Jones throws for 310 yards and two touchdowns, getting Adonai Mitchell some redemption and finding Josh Downs. Colts 34-17
N.Y. Giants (+2) at New Orleans, o/u 41.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The NFL is always rife with synchronicity. Like Miami, the Giants won their first game of the season last week, and lost their top wide receiver to a season-ending knee injury doing it. Malik Nabers' torn ACL cast a pall over Jaxson Dart's first pro win, but the rookie's big day wasn't exactly a masterpiece. Dart produced two TDs (one through the air, one on the ground) without committing a turnover, but 111 passing yards is more Tommy DeVito territory than peak Phil Simms or Eli Manning. While Dart learns the ropes and maybe saves Brian Daboll's job, it'll be on Cam Skattebo (211 scrimmage yards over the last two games) and the defense to keep the team competitive.
Of course, staying competitive shouldn't be that hard against the winless Saints. Their minus-55 points differential is the worst in the NFC, and after two one-score losses to begin the year, they've been routed by a combined score of 75-29 over the last two weeks by the Seahawks and Bills. Spencer Rattler has a surprisingly sturdy 5:1 TD:INT and 67.1 percent completion rate, so a switch to rookie Tyler Shough may not be coming any time soon, but Kellen Moore's kept the passing game close to the vest, and the second-year QB's 5.2 YPA is ahead of only Bryce Young, Joe Flacco and Cam Ward. That game plan has been good news for Juwan Johnson and to a lesser extent Chris Olave, but strangely Alvin Kamara has seen his production as a pass-catcher decline in the early going, and Rashid Shaheed's plummeting aDOT (9.6, after a 17.4 mark in 2024) has held him back too. It's hard to imagine things opening up if Shough does get the call at some point, but QB switches are all the rage right now, and the NFL is a copycat league. Plus, it's not like New Orleans has much to lose.
Key Info
NYG injury report: RB Tyrone Tracy (doubtful, shoulder), WR Malik Nabers (IR, knee), K Graham Gano (IR, groin), DT Dexter Lawrence (questionable, illness), LB Micah McFadden (IR, foot)
NO injury report: TE Juwan Johnson (questionable, ankle), "TE" Taysom Hill (PUP, knee), LG Trevor Penning (questionable, ankle), RG Cesar Ruiz (out, ankle), EDGE Chase Young (out, calf)
Strong lean: WR Darius Slayton (NO 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong lean: RB Alvin Kamara (NYG 32nd in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed to RBs)
Slight fade: WR Wan'Dale Robinson (NO t-third in receptions allowed, eighth in receiving yards allowed to WR2)
Slight fade: WR Chris Olave (NYG seventh in DVOA vs. WR1)
NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Skattebo bangs out 90 combined yards and a score. Dart throws for 240 yards and a TD to Slayton. Kamara erupts for 140 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Rattler throws for less than 200 yards but does find Shaheed for a score. Giants 20-17
Dallas at N.Y. Jets (+2.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
This stat just perfectly encapsulates the Cowboys' season so far: during the Super Bowl era, NFL teams were 300-0 during games in which they scored at least 40 points and committed no turnovers at home. After last week, they're now 300-0-1. On the one hand, it was an incredible performance by Dak Prescott, working behind a depleted offensive line and without CeeDee Lamb. On the other hand, this might be the worst secondary in NFL history. Trevon Diggs isn't 100 percent and DaRon Bland just returned from his own injury while playing in a zone-heavy scheme they aren't really suited for, the rest of the corners are barely NFL-caliber and the linebackers and safeties are offering no help in coverage. The "reinforcements" coming off IR at some point are led by DeMarvion Overshown, a linebacker who's only been healthy enough to play 13 games since being drafted in 2023, and a third-round rookie corner with a checkered medical history of his own in Shavon Revel. Fans are already calling for Matt Eberflus' head, but I'm hard-pressed to think of any DC, past or present, who could turn this roster into a semi-effective unit. That's all great news for fantasy GMs though, as it means every Dallas game should be a barn burner. Quarterbacks are averaging 361.7 passing yards and 3.3 TDs against this defense over the last three weeks, and one of them (Russell Wilson) has lost his starting job since. I'm only not including Jalen Hurts' Week 1 in those numbers because he didn't even really try to air it out, but on the rare times he did, he completed 19 of 23 passes.
The Jets are 0-4, but at least it's a spunky 0-4? Three of the losses were by a single score (a combined 10 points, in fact) and the one blowout was against Buffalo, which can happen to anybody. It's not much of a silver lining, though. Those close losses are because the team is routinely losing the turnover battle – the Jets have coughed up the ball at least once every week, but their defense is the only one left in the NFL without a takeaway. It's not what Aaron Glenn had in mind when he came over from Detroit. Justin Fields remains the ultimate wild card at QB, and if anyone can buck the trend of huge passing numbers against the Cowboys it's probably him, but he already has three rushing TDs in 2025 and could well add a couple more. Mason Taylor's also started to emerge as a potential second solid target behind Garrett Wilson, getting 13 targets over the last two games and turning them into a 9-83-0 line. If Gang Green can just hang onto the ball a little better, they should be alright, and given what's looking like a much softer schedule than it did in August, a late surge for a playoff spot can't be entirely ruled out if they get their act together, although the hole might be too deep already.
Key Info
DAL injury report: WR CeeDee Lamb (out, ankle), WR KaVontae Turpin (out, foot), LT Tyler Guyton (out, concussion), LG Tyler Smith (questionable, knee), C Cooper Beebe (IR, ankle), RG Tyler Booker (out, ankle), LB DeMarvion Overshown (PUP, knee), LB Kenneth Murray (questionable, knee), S Malik Hooker (out, toe)
NYJ injury report: RB Braelon Allen (IR, knee), RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (IR, triceps), DE Jermaine Johnson (questionable, ankle), LB Quincy Williams (IR, shoulder), CB Michael Carter (out, concussion)
Slight lean: WR Jalen Tolbert (NYJ 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong lean: QB Justin Fields (DAL 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards allowed, t-31st in passing TDs allowed, 27th in rushing yards allowed to QBs)
Strong lean: WR Garrett Wilson (DAL 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: RB Javonte Williams (NYJ sixth in rushing DVOA, third in receiving yards allowed to RBs)
Slight fade: RB Breece Hall (DAL 12th in YPC allowed)
NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Williams bangs out 90 yards and a touchdown. Prescott throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding George Pickens and Tolbert. Hall responds with 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Fields throws for 250 yards and runs for 60 more, tossing touchdowns to Wilson and Arian Smith while rushing for a third TD. Cowboys 30-28
Denver (+3.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The AFC West might be wide open this season, and the Broncos could be poised to make an early case to claim it. They aren't firing on all cylinders yet, but they've beaten who they're supposed to beat and lost to two credible opponents (the Colts and Chargers) by a combined four points. That second defeat might end up costing Denver, but their schedule after this one is cushy – they get a five-game stretch against teams that are currently a combined 4-15-1. Bo Nix and the offense erupted for 512 yards last week against the woeful Bengals, and while his overall numbers are down a bit so far, the second-year QB has now produced three TDs in two of four games in 2025. Sean Payton's two-headed backfield began to round into shape too, as J.K. Dobbins ran for over 100 yards and rookie RJ Harvey popped for 98 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown. Courtland Sutton remains the only reliable downfield option for the team, but that's par for the course, and Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims and Evan Engram (when he's healthy) could mix and match behind him. The defense leads the lead in sacks and pressure rate and is in the top eight in yards per play allowed and QB rating against, but having faced Cam Ward and Jake Browning could be pumping those latter rankings up.
The NFC's last unbeaten team, the Eagles keep finding weird ways to win while waiting for the offense to wake up. All four wins have been by a single score, and last week's victory was preserved by a fourth-quarter red-zone INT by Jihaad Campbell on Baker Mayfield. Saquon Barkley has gotten into the end zone in three of four games, but he hasn't yet reached 100 scrimmage yards in a contest, while Jalen Hurts has thrown for under 200 yards in three of four. He's tossed multiple TDs in two straight though and tush pushed his way to four scores on the ground, but for the most part Philly's doing just enough to win rather than putting teams away, and that's a dangerous tightrope to walk. Fun/odd/concerning fact – the Eagles have produced fewer first downs than their opposition in all four games so far, compensating with a plus-four turnover differential.
Key Info
DEN injury report: LB Dre Greenlaw (IR, quadriceps)
PHI injury report: LB Nakobe Dean (PUP, knee)
Slight lean: RB J.K. Dobbins / RJ Harvey (PHI 23rd in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Slight lean: RB Saquon Barkley (DEN 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Strong fade: TE Evan Engram (PHI first in DVOA vs. TE, third in receiving yards allowed, t-first in TDs allowed to TEs)
Slight fade: WR A.J. Brown (DEN eighth in DVOA vs. WR1)
NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Dobbins busts out 90 yards and a TD, while Harvey adds 70 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Nix throws for 200 yards and a score to Mims. Barkley responds with 140 yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Hurts throws for less than 200 yards but runs for one touchdown and throws the game-winning score to Jahan Dotson. Eagles 28-27
LATE SUNDAY
Tennessee (+7.5) at Arizona, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
There isn't much of a light at the end of the tunnel for the Titans right now. Cam Ward's growing pains have been rough, and he's mostly taken them out on Calvin Ridley, who's on pace for the worst full season of his career. Tony Pollard's averaging a career-worst 3.8 YPC, but that's actually just at the lower end of his usual range — more concerning is his lack of usage as a receiver, and Tyjae Spears' eventual return (which could happen this week) probably won't boost his efficiency at the expense of volume. While the offense has been dysfunctional, and having QB coach Bo Hardegree handle play-calling duties just resulted in getting shut out by the Texans, the defense hasn't exactly been balling out either. Tennessee's 29th in yards per play allowed, tied for 30th in sacks, 27th in completion percentage allowed, 28th in rushing yards per game allowed... you don't get the league's worst point differential by accident. Brian Callahan could be the first head coach fired this season, although there's nothing about the track record of recent first overall quarterbacks forced to deal with early-career coaching turmoil that would suggest it's a good idea.
Trey Benson's initial stint as the Cardinals' lead back lasted all of one game, as he now joins James Conner on the shelf. Benson gets a mulligan on his mediocre Week 4 effort due to the meniscus injury that will require surgery, and cost him a month or more – the best-case scenario would have him return after Arizona's bye to face Dallas in Week 9, although the more poetic timeline would have back for the Week 10 rematch against Seattle. In the meantime, Emeri Demercado and Michael Carter will handle backfield reps, and the 2-2 Cards will make lean a bit more heavily on Kyler Murray and the passing game. In that light, Marvin Harrison's cathartic TD last week may have come at exactly the right time. This team has yet to play a game decided by more than one score in 2025, so you can't count on them not to play down to the level of their opposition here, but this would be a great time to build on that moment and take care of business here.
Key Info
TEN injury report: RB Tyjae Spears (IR, ankle), WR Calvin Ridley (questionable, knee), RT JC Latham (out, hip), DT T'Vondre Sweat (IR, ankle)
ARI injury report: RB James Conner (IR, foot), RB Trey Benson (IR, knee), WR Greg Dortch (questionable, collarbone), LG Evan Brown (doubtful, hamstring), RG Will Hernandez (questionable, knee), DE Darius Robinson (out, pectoral), CB Will Johnson (questionable, groin), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (NFI, knee)
Slight lean: TE Chig Okonkwo (ARI 28th in DVOA vs. TE, 27th in receiving yards allowed to TEs)
Strong lean: RB Emeri Demercado / Michael Carter (TEN 31st in rushing DVOA, 30th in rushing yards allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed to RBs)
Slight fade: WR Elic Ayomanor (ARI seventh in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: TE Trey McBride (TEN eighth in receiving yards allowed, t-sixth in TDs allowed to TEs)
NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Pollard collects 80 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Ward throws for less than 200 yards. Demercado leads the ARI backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown. Murray throws for 220 yards and a TD to Harrison. Cardinals 23-7
Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Seattle, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
I wouldn't say the Bucs' hold on the NFC South is slipping, exactly, but they aren't running away with the division. They're 3-1 but with a dead even point differential, as Baker Mayfield's late-game luck ran out in the red zone against the Eagles. (That clip is such an incredible "game of inches" moment too ... there *was* a window to get the ball to Godwin, regardless of what that full-of-himself color commentator was saying, and if Mayfield's throw is just a touch more toward the outside, it doesn't get tipped and maybe it's four straight miracle wins for Tampa Bay.) The level of difficulty for the offense goes up a bit this week, though – while swapping Mike Evans out for Godwin didn't seem to hurt the passing game, let's see how the running game does without Bucky Irving. The defense has been quietly stingy, sitting fifth in yards per play allowed despite a lack of splash plays and holding four straight opponents under 100 rushing yards, despite already facing Bijan Robinson and Saquon Barkley.
The Seahawks are also 3-1, reeling off three straight wins after losing their opener to the Niners. The offense is roaring, averaging 32.7 points and 366.3 yards during the win streak as Sam Darnold settles into his new scheme. Kenneth Walker continues to be treated like the lead back when he's healthy, although he might be winning that battle by default, as Zach Charbonnet's 2.5 YPC is pretty icky. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's carrying the load in the passing game, as OC Klint Kubiak hasn't really seen someone step up yet as a consistent No. 2 target. So far though, Seattle hasn't really needed one. Third in points per game allowed, fourth in yards per play allowed, tied fourth in takeaways, sixth in sacks and pressure rate... Mike Macdonald's defense is inching close to elite status, if it's not already there, although the secondary will be missing a couple key pieces for this one. That's going to buy the offense a lot of time to figure out what works before crunch time in December.
Key Info
TB injury report: RB Bucky Irving (out, foot), WR Mike Evans (out, hamstring), WR Jalen McMillan (IR, neck), RT Luke Goedeke (IR, foot), EDGE Calijah Kancey (IR, pectoral), CB Jamel Dean (out, hip), CB Benjamin Morrison (out, hamstring)
SEA injury report: EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (out, quadriceps), CB Devon Witherspoon (out, knee), S Julian Love (out, hamstring)
Slight lean: RB Rachaad White (SEA 25th in passing DVOA vs. RB, 32nd in receiving yards allowed to RBs)
Slight lean: WR Cooper Kupp (TB 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Strong fade: WR Emeka Egbuka (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong fade: RB Kenneth Walker / Zach Charbonnet (TB first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards allowed to RBs)
NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: White leads the TB backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Mayfield throws for 240 yards and a second score to Cade Otton. Walker grinds out 60 yards. Darnold throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, one each to JSN and Elijah Arroyo, while George Holani's kickoff return to the house proves to be the difference. Seahawks 24-23
Detroit at Cincinnati (+10.5), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
The Lions took just one week to kick into gear. Over their last three games, Dan Campbell's crew has averaged a stunning 41.3 points a game, and not even the Browns' defense could quite slow them down, although the short fields afforded by three Joe Flacco giveaways helped on that front. Jared Goff's posting his usual numbers with a 9:2 TD:INT, while Jahmyr Gibbs has topped 90 scrimmage yards and found the end zone in all three wins, while David Montgomery has three rushing TDs of his own and a career-best 151-yard rushing effort. Injuries are beginning to be an issue in the secondary, but with the offense surging, new DC Kelvin Sheppard's defense only needs to be adequate. About the only way Detroit should have any trouble here is if the team gets caught looking ahead to a Week 6 trip to Kansas City.
The Bengals are... they're bad, folks. Maybe they've been this bad for a while, and Joe Burrow was just good enough to cover for it, but now that he's out of the picture for a while, things are getting bleak. In Jake Browning's two starts, the team's been out-scored 76-13, and sure, those were road games against likely playoff teams in Minnesota and Denver, but Cincy showed no signs of life on either side of the ball. The offensive line has let Browning get sacked seven times already and can't open up holes for Chase Brown, who's averaging a mind-boggling 0.98 yards before contact per carry. (The only back worse? Ashton Jeanty at 0.96). Ja'Marr Chase saw 16 targets in Burrow's last start; in two contests since he's gotten a total of 14, and again, those were in games during which the Bengals were staring at big deficits by halftime. Tee Higgins isn't faring any better. The defense is mostly bad rather than awful — hey, they're 15th in QB rating against! — but when the offense can't move the ball, things juist snowball. No team has run fewer plays from scrimmage than Cincy, and only Baltimore's D has been on the field for more plays. That's simply untenable.
Key Info
DET injury report: LT Taylor Decker (questionable, shoulder), CB D.J. Reed (IR, hamstring), S Kerby Joseph (questionable, knee)
CIN injury report: QB Joe Burrow (IR, toe), RG Lucas Patrick (IR, calf), EDGE Shemar Stewart (out, ankle)
Slight lean: QB Jared Goff (CIN 27th in passing DVOA, 29th in passing yards allowed, t-25th in passing TDs allowed)
Slight lean: WR Tee Higgins (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong fade: WR Jameson Williams (CIN third in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: RB Chase Brown (DET fourth in rushing DVOA, eighth in rushing yards allowed to RBs)
NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Gibbs jets for 120 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Montgomery adds 70 yards and two more scores. Goff throws for 300 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Isaac TeSlaa. Brown ekes out 40 yards. Browning throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does find Noah Fant for a TD. Lions 35-10
Washington (+3) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 48.0
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Sometimes, there's just no justice in the world. The Commanders are basically dead even with the Eagles in points scored (108 to 107), points allowed (88 to 91) and yards per play allowed (5.40 to 5.67), and they have a huge edge in yards per play on offense (5.77 to 4.17). And yet, mainly due to turnovers, Philly's 4-0 and Washington's 2-2. If you're a glass half full kind of fan, it bodes well for Dan Quinn's squad if they can tighten things up. If you're a glass half empty type, you look at who the Commanders' wins have come against (the Giants and Raiders) and wonder when they'll beat a real team. Last week's loss did come with Jayden Daniels sidelined, but the young franchise QB will be wearing a brace on his knee going forward, which is triggering some PTSD in folks from the last time the franchise had a young, super-mobile franchise QB. More worrying might be the fact that Daniels won't have as many pass-catchers options as he's used to upon his return. Austin Ekeler's done for the year, Terry McLaurin's on the shelf, and even Noah Brown's out. Luke McCaffrey showed signs of taking a step forward when Marcus Mariota was under center, but it remains to be seen if he'll have the same connection with Daniels. The key to the team's 2025 remains Quinn's defense, though. The pass rush is coming along, and the secondary is talented, but until the splash plays and takeaways start adding up, they'll probably remain a rung behind the Eagles in the NFC East.
OK, what the heck was that? The Chargers had a chance to go 4-0 and establish a firm hold on the lead in the AFC West, but instead they fell on their face against the previously winless Giants. OK, sure, Justin Herbert's now down both his starting tackles and was missing his right guard last week too, and Big Blue's vaunted front seven landed 12 QB hits on him, although only two sacks. Omarion Hampton still erupted for 165 scrimmage yards on 17 touches, which makes you wonder why OC Greg Roman — Greg Roman! — didn't just lean on his running game to compensate for the reduced protection for Herbert. It's like he was trying too hard to prove he could learn new tricks as an old dog. Ladd McConkey also remains lost in the wilderness while Quentin Johnston thrives and Keenan Allen sees steady volume, which is probably something that will need to change before the Bolts are ready to take on the conference heavyweights.
Key Info
WAS injury report: RB Austin Ekeler (IR, Achilles), WR Terry McLaurin (out, quadriceps), WR Noah Brown (out, groin), RG Sam Cosmi (PUP, knee), CB Jonathan Jones (IR, hamstring)
LAC injury report: RB Najee Harris (IR, Achilles), TE Will Dissly (questionable, knee), LT Rashawn Slater (IR, knee), LT Joe Alt (out, ankle), RG Mekhi Becton (questionable, concussion), EDGE Khalil Mack (IR, elbow), LB Denzel Perryman (IR, ankle)
Slight lean: QB Jayden Daniels (LAC 31st in rushing yards allowed, t-28th in rushing TDs allowed to QBs)
Strong lean: WR Keenan Allen (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong fade: WR Jaylin Lane (LAC second in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: RB Omarion Hampton (WAS fifth in rushing DVOA, seventh in YPC allowed)
NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Daniels leads the WAS backfield with 70 rushing yards, but Chris Rodriguez adds 60 and a score while Jacory Croskey-Merritt also picks up 50 and a TD. Daniels throws for 200 yards and two touchdowns, finding Zach Ertz and Deebo Samuel. Hampton claws his way to 70 yards and a score. Herbert gets sacked four times but throws for 240 yards and two TDs, one each to Johnston and Allen. Commanders 28-27
SUNDAY NIGHT
New England (+7.5) at Buffalo, o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
I think it's fair to say we don't really know who the Patriots are yet. Wins against the Dolphins and Panthers don't really mean much, but neither does a one-score loss to the Steelers. This is their first big test of the year, and against a division rival who's mostly kicked their butts in recent years. Drake Maye has been locked in of late, posting a 79.2 percent completion rate and 9.1 YPA while producing eight TDs against two giveaways over the last three games, but see above about the quality of the opposition. Stefon Diggs looked more like his old self last week, topping 100 yards for the first time with New England, and if anyone will be geared up for a revenge game it's him. Getting him more than seven targets a game would be helpful in that endeavor, though. The backfield remains unsettled, as Mike Vrabel seems reluctant to make rookie TreVeyon Henderson his top RB, but Rhamondre Stevenson hasn't had much success on the ground so far. The Pats don't really do anything well yet except maybe stop the run (and even then, they haven't faced anyone yet who was good at running it), but at the very least this game should give them an idea of how big the gap is between them and the team they're chasing.
The Bills have romped through the early part of their schedule since their miracle win over the Ravens, but they also haven't been challenged by their last three opponents, breezing through the Jets, Dolphins and Saints by a combined score of 92-50. No other team in the NFL has scored at least 30 points in every game in 2025, as Josh Allen delivered 10 TDs against only one turnover, while James Cook has at least one rushing TD in every contest and three straight 100-yard rushing performances. The receiving corps has been held back a bit by the fact that Allen hasn't had to air it out since Week 1, but Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid have all had their moments. The defense, though, has been middle of the road at best, with some key injuries up the middle eroding the run defense and giving teams a viable strategy to keep Allen off the field. If Ed Oliver is back this week though, that window might be closed.
Key Info
NE injury report: DE Milton Williams (questionable, ankle), CB Carlton Davis (questionable, illness)
BUF injury report: RT Spencer Brown (questionable, calf), K Tyler Bass (IR, hip), DT Ed Oliver (questionable, ankle), LB Matt Milano (questionable, pectoral), LB Dorian Williams (out, knee), CB Maxwell Hairston (IR, knee)
Slight lean: WR Kayshon Boutte (BUF 26th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight lean: WR Keon Coleman (NE 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: QB Drake Maye (BUF first in passing yards allowed)
Slight fade: QB Josh Allen (NE second in rushing yards allowed, t-first in rushing TDs allowed to QBs)
NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 8-3 BUF, average score 28-19 BUF, average margin of victory 11 points. BUF has won four straight meetings at Highmark Stadium, including a 47-17 rout in the wild-card round of the 2021 playoffs against Bill Belichick and Mac Jones
The Scoop: Henderson leads the NE backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown. Maye throws for 200 yards and a TD to Boutte. Cook pops for 140 yards and two more scores. Allen throws for 290 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Coleman and Kincaid. Bills 34-20
MONDAY NIGHT
Kansas City at Jacksonville (+3.5), o/u 46.5
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
Talk about turning back the clock. Kansas City got Xavier Worthy back last week and suddenly found the 2022 edition of the passing game, as Patrick Mahomes chucked four touchdowns with a 67.6 percent completion rate. That more than doubled his TD total on the year though, and a reeling Ravens squad may have had bigger worries in that contest. Worthy's shoulder held up well as he topped 100 scrimmage yards and caught five of eight targets, while the scores went to, well, just about anybody else. Except Travis Kelce, poor guy. If only he had something going for him away from football. Nice as the offensive flurry was, KC's two-game win streak is more a product of the defense producing multiple takeaways each time while the offense took care of the ball. Rashee Rice is a couple weeks away from joining the party, so maybe that flash of excitement through the air was just a tease for what's coming in the second half, but until Mahomes is able to put up those big numbers again consistently, this still seems like a roster built to grind it out rather than erupt for points in bunches.
The Jaguars' 3-1 record is one game better than their Monday opponents, and like KC, it's also felt like the team's turned back the clock – in this case, to the 2017 team that was the last to take home an AFC South title for Jacksonville. That squad was among the league leaders in takeaways with 33 in 16 games, led by A.J. Bouye's six INTs and three other players (including Jalen Ramsey and Tashaun Gipson) with four each. Yannick Ngakoue also forced six fumbles, and six different Jacksonville players scored defensive TDs, with Telvin Smith doing it twice and Calais Campbell getting to the house once while racking up 14.5 sacks. This year, DC Anthony Campanile's crew leads the NFL with an incredible 13 takeaways in only four games – at least three in all four contests. Devin Lloyd's produced three INTs and a forced fumble on his own, while smart free-agent signing Jordan Lewis has two picks. While all eyes have been on Liam Coen and the offense, it's the other side of the ball that's been a monster. Of course, things are going right for the offense too. Well, one thing anyway. Travis Etienne's broken out for 426 scrimmage yards and a 6.1 YPC. Trevor Lawrence still doesn't quite have the hang of his umpteenth new scheme though, with Brian Thomas completely flummoxed and Travis Hunter looking more like a novelty act than a headliner. If Lawrence truly is the problem, and his 58.3 percent completion rate, 5.9 YPA and 5:4 TD:INT suggest that it is, then Coen's going to have a tough decision to make in the offseason. In the meantime, hey, it's only the AFC South. An opportunistic defense and strong ground game's probably good enough to get by for now.
Key Info
KC injury report: WR Rashee Rice (out, suspension), CB Kristian Fulton (questionable, ankle)
JAC injury report: RB Bhayshul Tuten (questionable, shoulder), WR Dyami Brown (questionable, shoulder), LG Ezra Cleveland (questionable, concussion), RG Patrick Mekari (questionable, knee), RT Anton Harrison (questionable, elbow), EDGE Travon Walker (questionable, wrist), S Eric Murray (questionable, neck)
Slight lean: WR Xavier Worthy (JAC 22nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: WR Travis Hunter (KC 25th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong fade: WR Hollywood Brown (JAC first in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong fade: TE Brenton Strange (KC third in DVOA vs. TE, sixth in receiving yards allowed, t-first in TDs allowed to TEs)
NFL weather report: 9-10 mph wind, 20-30 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Isiah Pacheco motors for 80 yards and a TD. Mahomes throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Noah Gray and Worthy. Etienne breaks off a couple big gains again, en route to 140 combined yards and a score. Lawrence throws for under 200 yards but does find Hunter for his first TD, and Foyesade Oluokun scoops up a Kareem Hunt fumble and takes it to the house. Jaguars 23-21
THURSDAY NIGHT
San Francisco (+6.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 47.0
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
It's awfully sporting of the 49ers to send their junior varsity offense out for this one. No Brock Purdy would be one thing — Mac Jones looked fine in his two earlier starts this year — but San Francisco will also be without its top three wideouts, its elite tight end and its starting left guard. Oh, and its top pass rusher too, just to balance things out. The Niners do still have Christian McCaffrey, of course, who I guess is now the iron man on this roster, and all he's done this year is rack up the third-most scrimmage yards in the league while being almost unstoppable as a pass-catcher. His 3.3 yards per carry is well below his norm, but again, it's not like defenses have had to worry too much about getting beat deep by guys like Kendrick Bourne and Jake Tonges. It's kind of amazing that Kyle Shanahan has this team at 3-1 and somehow fifth in total yards, but the cracks are beginning to show. The Niners have lost the turnover battle in consecutive games, giving the ball away five times in total without the defense producing a takeaway, and it cost them last week against the Jags.
The Rams are also 3-1 in the ultra-competitive NFC West, and their only loss was to the defending Super Bowl champs, who needed a blocked field goal at the buzzer to do it. Matthew Stafford's 8.2 YPA is his best mark since 2019, Puka Nacua leads the NFL in catches and receiving yards, and while Kyren Williams isn't at his usual TD-a-game pace, he's still been productive. DC Chris Shula's defense has also been very stout. Philly's the only team to score more than 20 points against them so far, and the Rams are in the top five in takeaways and sacks, which is always a nice combination. If both teams were at close to full strength, this might be a very hard call, but, well, they aren't.
Key Info
SF injury report: QB Brock Purdy (out, toe), WR Jauan Jennings (out, ankle), WR Ricky Pearsall (out, knee), WR Brandon Aiyuk (PUP, knee), TE George Kittle (IR, hamstring), LG Ben Bartch (IR, ankle), EDGE Nick Bosa (IR, knee), S Malik Mustapha (PUP, knee)
LAR injury report: TE Tyler Higbee (doubtful, hip), RT Rob Havenstein (doubtful, ankle), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (IR, collarbone)
Slight lean: WR Demarcus Robinson (LAR 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight lean: TE Davis Allen (SF t-25th in receptions allowed, t-28th in TDs allowed to TEs)
Slight fade: RB Christian McCaffrey (LAR second in passing DVOA vs. RB, second in receiving yards allowed to RBs)
Slight fade: RB Kyren Williams (SF 11th in rushing DVOA, fourth in passing DVOA vs. RB)
NFL weather report: indoors
Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 7-4 SF, average score 23-18 SF, average margin of victory eight points. LAR have won the last three meetings by an average score of 20-17, and their only other victory during the period was a... 20-17 win in the NFC Championship Game in 2021
The Scoop: McCaffrey manages 70 combined yards. Jones throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Tonges, but he also tosses a pick-six to Quentin Lake. Williams picks up 80 yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 220 yards and a score to Nacua. Rams 27-13
Last week's record: 8-7-1, 4-12 ATS, 6-9-1 o/u
2025 record: 43-20-1 (.683), 32-30-2 ATS (.516), 26-37-1 o/u (.413)
