MONDAY NIGHT
Washington (+10.5) at Kansas City, o/u 47.5
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
RGIII PTSD is raging in the Washington fanbase, as Jayden Daniels is set to miss another key game this week with a lower-body injury. The Commanders simply didn't have enough healthy bodies to keep pace with the Cowboys in Week 7, but Marcus Mariota will at least have Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel available this time. The team's 3-4, but all four losses have at least come against credible opponents. The problem for the Commanders is, they have a bunch more credible opponents on the horizon. The only two 'should-win' games left on their schedule are the Dolphins in Week 11 and the Giants in Week 15, and all bets are usually off in a road divisional game. Dan Quinn's crew can't afford to fall too much further behind, or have Daniels miss too many more games, if they're going to stay in the playoff picture.
Kansas City fans, on the other hand, are starting to feel like it's 2022 again. Over the last four games, Patrick Mahomes has a 71.3 percent completion rate, a 7.9 YPA and an 11:1 TD:INT while leading the team to an average of 31.5 points. The one-two downfield punch of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy is complemented by a bevy of veterans who know their roles like Travis Kelce and Hollywood Brown, and rookie RB Brashard Smith is starting to become a pass-catching threat as well. That increasingly dangerous aerial attack might be matched by a defense that held the Lions to 17 points and under 300 yards of offense in Week 6 before absolutely throttling the Raiders in a shutout win last week. OK, sure, KC is only third right now in the AFC West, but do you trust the Broncos and (especially) the Chargers not to crumble under the pressure? Andy Reid's bunch is battle-tested, and they have millions of Swifties in their corner. Some things just feel inevitable, and Kansas City playing deep into January again, if not all the way to February, is beginning to seem like one of them.
Key Info
WAS injury report: QB Jayden Daniels (out, hamstring), RB Austin Ekeler (IR, Achilles), WR Noah Brown (IR, groin), EDGE Dorance Armstrong (IR, knee), EDGE Deatrich Wise (IR, quadriceps)
KC injury report: RB Kareem Hunt (questionable, knee), LT Josh Simmons (questionable, personal), RG Trey Smith (questionable, back)
Slight lean: WR Deebo Samuel (KC 23rd in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong lean: TE Travis Kelce (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
Slight fade: WR Jaylin Lane (KC sixth in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight fade: WR Xavier Worthy (WAS t-seventh in receptions allowed to WR2s)
NFL weather report: 30-40 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Jacory Croskey-Merritt shines in prime time, busting out for 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Mariota throws for less than 200 yards and a score to Samuel. Isiah Pacheco bangs out 70 yards and a TD, while Smith adds 60 yards. Mahomes throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Rice (who tops 100 yards), Kelce and Brown. Kansas City 31-17
EARLY SUNDAY
Miami (+7) at Atlanta, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Last week's six-point performance by the Dolphins offense comes with all the usual caveats and asterisks that accompany a bad-weather game in Cleveland, but there's no excuse for the defense allowing 31 points to a Browns squad with rookie Dillon Gabriel under center. Sure, one of Cleveland's TD came on a pick-six and Quinshon Judkins ran for the other three, but who else did Miami's defenders think was going to get the ball? If you can't stop a guy when he's the only plausible threat the other team has on the field, you deserve to get routed by a 2-5 team. The Dolphins are spiraling, and it seems like it's only a matter of time before Mike McDaniel gets pink slipped. (If you're wondering who might get the interim job at that point, RBs coach Eric Studesville is the only person on the staff with any kind of vague head coaching experience, as he went 1-3 as the interim coach for the 2010 Broncos after replacing... Josh McDaniels. That's too perfect not to happen.) Tua Tagovailoa seems checked out, throwing six INTs over the last two games, and De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle simply aren't enough to keep the offense afloat. On paper, Tagovailoa has some potential get-right games coming up after this one, as Miami gets Baltimore, Buffalo and Washington before its Week 12 bye, but right now those seem more like get-right games for three struggling defenses.
The Falcons' loss in Week 7 came under similar circumstances, to be fair. The Niners did have George Kittle back in the fold, and Jauan Jennings keeps playing through multiple injuries, but their offense is still basically a one-man show with Christian McCaffrey, and Atlanta still couldn't slow him down. Of course, not being able to stop CMac is a bit different than not being able to stop Judkins, but it's still the same basic principle. The bigger issue was the offense, as Michael Penix picked up some sort of lower-body injury last weekend – Raheem Morris initially suggested it was a bone bruise in his foot, but the team's official injury report this week listed a knee injury instead – but either way, the second-year QB had one of his worst games of the season as the Falcons scratched out just 10 points. It's reductive, but the team is 3-0 so far when it scores more than 20 points, and 0-3 when it doesn't. The possibility of Kirk Cousins saving Atlanta's season is the kind of narrative the league tends to lose its mind over, but Penix doesn't appear set to miss any time. Drake London probably wouldn't want to see a switch – after a slow start to 2025 the fourth-year wideout has seen double-digit targets in three straight games, racking up a 22-310-2 line on 36 targets and giving defenses something else to worry about other than Bijan Robinson, who fell to second in the league in scrimmage yards behind CMac after last week.
Key Info
MIA injury report: WR Tyreek Hill (IR, knee), TE Darren Waller (IR, pectoral), TE Julian Hill (out, ankle), LG Liam Eichenberg (PUP, undisclosed), RT Austin Jackson (IR, toe), K Jason Sanders (IR, hip), CB Kader Kohou (IR, knee)
ATL injury report: QB Michael Penix (questionable, knee), RB Tyler Allgeier (questionable, hip), RT Kaleb McGary (IR, leg), DE Zach Harrison (questionable, knee), EDGE Jalon Walker (out, groin), LB Divine Deablo (out, forearm), CB Billy Bowman (out, hamstring), S Jordan Fuller (IR, knee)
Slight lean: RB De'Von Achane (ATL 22nd in rushing DVOA, 27th in YPC allowed)
Strong lean: QB Michael Penix (MIA 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed to QBs)
Strong fade: QB Tua Tagovailoa (ATL first in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed)
Slight fade: WR Darnell Mooney (MIA second in receptions per game and receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Achane piles up 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Tagovailoa throws for less than 200 yards but limits his turnovers to one. Robinson strikes for 110 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Penix plays and throws for 230 yards and a second score to London. Falcons 20-16
Chicago (+6.5) at Baltimore, o/u 50.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Bears have won four straight games as the Ben Johnson era gets off to a strong start, but surprisingly its been DC Dennis Allen that's been further ahead than the offense. The win streak started when Chicago held Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to just 14 points – Dallas has averaged 37 points in its four games since – and in all four victories, the Bears' defense has forced at least three turnovers, surging to the top of the league with 16 takeaways in total and a plus-11 differential on the year. They've done that without top CB Jaylon Johnson, but with Tyrique Stevenson now banged up as well, things could start getting dicey in the secondary. That also make the Bears a prime candidate to trade for reinforcements (Alontae Taylor, who already knows Allen's scheme from their time together in New Orleans, might be a perfect fit if he's available). The offense is beginning to look more Detroit-like, but it's not quite there yet. D'Andre Swift has produced back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances, amassing 313 scrimmage yards and two TDs in two games since a Week 5 bye, while rookie Kyle Monangai did a very credible David Montgomery impression last week with 81 rushing yards and his first career touchdown. Whether the Bears become a true threat depends on Caleb Williams' development though, and the jury is still very much out. His YPA is up a full yard from the limp 6.3 mark he hit as a rookie, but his completion rate is down to 61.1 percent after three straight games below 60. Williams has the weapons to thrive if the light bulb ever goes on for him, but so far it's been more like the Cheat throwing a rave.
The Ravens' season may well hang in the balance this week. Already staring up from a 1-5 hole, another loss – especially if it's because Lamar Jackson's hamstring remains an issue – could be too much even for John Harbaugh's perennial contenders to overcome. The main issue, just as it was in the first half last season, has been DC Zach Orr's crew. In 2024, Baltimore's defense was allowing 25.3 points and 367.9 yards a game through Week 10 before finally getting healthier and turning things around down the stretch. This year, the numbers have been even worse, as the Ravens have coughed up 32.3 points and 380.8 yards through six games. Key players like Roquan Smith will be back this week, which will help, and the unit did look better in Week 6 against the Rams. Still, if Jackson isn't 100 percent, the margin for error is a lot, lot lower. The Ravens have missed the playoffs only once in the last seven seasons and have finished below .500 only twice since Harbaugh took over in 2008, but one more loss would leave them needing to go something like 9-1 the rest of the way to get into the postseason, against a schedule that still includes five divisional clashes and games against the Packers, Vikings and upstart Patriots.
Key Info
CHI injury report: RB D'Andre Swift (questionable, groin), TE Cole Kmet (out, back), CB Jaylon Johnson (IR, groin), CB Tyrique Stevenson (out, shoulder), CB Kyler Gordon (out, groin)
BAL injury report: QB Lamar Jackson (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Nnamdi Madubuike (IR, neck)
Slight lean: WR Rome Odunze (BAL 27th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: RB Justice Hill (CHI 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB, t-29th in receiving TDs allowed to RBs)
No fades for CHI. The Ravens defense has been mediocre or worse across the board
Strong fade: WR Zay Flowers (CHI first in DVOA vs. WR1)
NFL weather report: 10-20 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Swift leads the CHI backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a score, while Monangai also scores another touchdown. Williams throws for 240 yards and a TD to Odunze. Derrick Henry gets held to 60 yards, while Hill adds 50 combined yards and a receiving score. Jackson plays and throws for 200 yards with a second touchdown to Mark Andrews, plus a rushing TD of his own, but it's not enough. Bears 27-21
Buffalo at Carolina (+7.5), o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
OK, what's wrong with the Bills? After going 4-0 to start the season but having trouble putting away inferior teams like the Dolphins and Saints, Buffalo dropped two straight before their bye to the Pats and Falcons, teams that are more in the 'up and comer' bucket than proven heavyweights. It was the perfect time for a reset sure, but I'm not sure the Bills' problems are so easily remedied. The defense has been erratic, and while DC Bobby Babich's unit hasn't allowed more than 24 points since Week 1 against Lamar Jackson, it did surrender 443 yards to Atlanta in Week 6, and it's not consistently producing splash plays. Josh Allen still doesn't have a go-to pass-catching option he can rely on in the clutch, and if a defense can contain James Cook (136 rushing yards and zero TDs in the two losses), the opposition has a fighting chance. There doesn't seem to be any solutions available at the trade deadline, either – Jakobi Meyers might be an upgrade on Keon Coleman, but he's not an elite wideout. Allen's still Allen of course, and I might still rate the Bills as the favorites to win the AFC East even though the Pats are a half-game ahead right now and have an easier schedule the rest of the way, but someone else will need to step up for them to look like a serious Super Bowl contender again.
Three straight wins over sketchy opponents has gotten the Panthers to 4-3, an impressive performance for a franchise that has won more than five games in a season just once in the last six years, and which hasn't had a winning record since 2017. Bryce Young picked up an ankle injury in last week's ugly win over the Jets, but switching to Andy Dalton under center shouldn't have a big impact, and might even be good news for Tetairoa McMillan and the passing game. The offense is running through the ground game anyway. Chuba Hubbard returned from a two-week absence last week but still took a back seat to Rico Dowdle, who fell just short of 100 scrimmage yards. Dowdle's erupted for468 rushing yards and 101 receiving yards with two TDs over the last three games with a stunning 6.7 YPC, and that duo in a timeshare could be a handful for all but the stoutest front sevens, a description which definitely does not fit the Bills. The Panthers' front seven might be, though – during their win streak they've held De'Von Achane, Javonte Williams and Breece Hall to a combined 83 rushing yards and 2.4 YPC with zero TDs on the ground.
Key Info
BUF injury report: WR Joshua Palmer (out, knee), TE Dalton Kincaid (questionable, oblique), K Tyler Bass (IR, hip), LB Terrel Bernard (questionable, ankle), LB Matt Milano (questionable, pectoral), CB Maxwell Hairston (IR, knee), S Taylor Rapp (out, knee)
CAR injury report: QB Bryce Young (doubtful, ankle), RG Robert Hunt (IR, biceps), EDGE Patrick Jones (IR, back)
Strong lean: TE Dalton Kincaid / Dawson Knox (CAR 32nd in DVOA vs. TE, 29th in receiving yards allowed to TEs)
Strong lean: RB Chuba Hubbard / Rico Dowdle (BUF 32nd in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed to RBs)
Slight fade: RB James Cook (CAR third in rushing DVOA, eighth in rushing yards per game allowed, third in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Slight fade: TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (BUF second in receptions per game and receiving yards per game allowed to TEs)
NFL weather report: 5-15 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Cook bangs out 90 yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for 210 yards and two scores, finding Knox and Khalil Shakir. Dowdle leads the CAR backfield with 100 combined yards and a TD, while Hubbard adds 50 yards and a touchdown. Dalton throws for less than 200 yards and a score to McMillan. Bills 27-24
N.Y. Jets (+6.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
It's probably time to start wondering if the Jets can put together one of those rare, magical winless seasons where absolutely everything goes wrong. They have a few winnable games left on their schedule past this one – Miami in Week 14 and New Orleans in Week 16 being the most likely candidates – but Gang Grene already lost to the Dolphins once, and a turnaround seems a long way away. Coach Aaron Glenn, who seems to be in way over his head, clearly wants to bench Justin Fields in favor of Tyrod Taylor in a move to very slightly raise the floor on the offense while massively reducing its ceiling, but even that plan's going awry as Taylor picked up a knee injury last week in relief and may not be able to suit up. Garrett Wilson's out, Breece Hall's less than 100 percent... even promising rookie tight end Mason Taylor's banged up. The Jets defense is doing some nearly heroic work under the circumstances, holding the last two opponents (the Broncos and Panthers) to 13 points each, but it's falling apart too – Sauce Gardner will miss this one, and the unit has one lonely takeaway all season.
All that said, the Bengals are certainly capable of losing to the Jets. Yeah, they're 3-4, and bringing in Joe Flacco has given the offense some life, but a defense that made 2025 Carson Wentz look like 2019 Carson Wentz can probably make whichever QB the Jets go with look good too. Cincy's 31st in yards per play allowed, 31st in points per game allowed, 32nd in TD passes allowed, and 31st in both third-down conversions against and red-zone efficiency against. To his credit, Flacco's posted a 65.2 percent completion rate and 5:0 TD:INT in his two starts for the Bengals, but a 6.1 YPA isn't exactly healthy Burrow-esque. Having a credible passing attack did seem to help Chase Brown last week as well, and Ja'Marr Chase has been a monster for three weeks now, but it wouldn't take much to derail OC Dan Pitcher's crew.
Key Info
NYJ injury report: QB Tyrod Taylor (questionable, knee), RB Breece Hall (questionable, knee), RB Braelon Allen (IR, knee), WR Garrett Wilson (out, knee), TE Mason Taylor (questionable, quadriceps), RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (IR, triceps), LB Quincy Williams (IR, shoulder), CB Sauce Gardner (out, concussion), CB Michael Carter (questionable, concussion)
CIN injury report: QB Joe Burrow (IR, toe), EDGE Trey Hendrickson (questionable, hip)
Strong lean: QB Justin Fields / Tyrod Taylor (CIN 30th in passing DVOA, 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed)
Strong lean: WR Tee Higgins (NYJ 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: WR Josh Reynolds (CIN fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: RB Chase Brown (NYJ fourth in rushing DVOA)
NFL weather report: 20-30 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Hall starts and gains 80 yards and a TD. Tyrod also gets cleared and starts, but throws for less than 200 yards and loses a fumble that Barrett Carter takes to the house. Brown manages 60 yards. Flacco throws for less than 200 yards as well but does find Higgins for a score. Bengals 17-10
San Francisco (+1.5) at Houston, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
How do they keep doing it? Despite what should have been a devastating injury epidemic, the 49ers are 5-2 and keeping pace with the Rams and Seahawks in the NFC West. It helps that the one guy who's stayed healthy is Christian McCaffrey, of course, and San Francisco's had to ride him to league highs in touches (185) and scrimmage yards (981) while patching the rest of the roster together around him. The offense is inching closer to full strength, as George Kittle returned last week and Brock Purdy could be back next week, but now it's the defense starting to fall apart. Fred Warner has joined Nick Bosa in being lost for the year, and Bryce Huff is set to miss time as well. DC Robert Saleh's troops rallied last week against the Falcons, holding them to 10 points and 292 yards of offense, but at some point the smoke and mirrors routine might not be enough. The Niners could be a juggernaut by the end of the regular season with the right trade deadline additions and the right guys getting healthy, but it's just as plausible it all begins to crumble in the second half, especially if CMac can't hold up under this workload.
The Texans are 2-4, but it's an encouraging 2-4, I guess? The four losses are all against teams that seem on their way to the playoffs (Rams, Bucs, Jags and Seahawks), while they thumped their only two struggling opponents (Titans and Ravens) by a combined score of 70-10, leaving them with a plus-39 point differential on the season. Of course, their schedule doesn't get any easier the rest of the way, and being the best 5-12 team in history probably isn't what Houston had in mind. C.J. Stroud continues to struggle behind an offensive line that just isn't coming together – he's been sacked multiple times in every game this year, and his 6.8 YPA would be a career low. All his veteran targets come into this one nursing injuries too, and Nico Collins especially would be a potentially insurmountable absence. It would put massive pressure on rookie wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to step up, and it's been the latter looking more ready to do so of late. Noel's got a 6-90-1 line on 10 targets over the last two games, and Stroud's success finding his slot receiver in the past (not to mention his need to get rid of the ball quicker) make the Iowa State product one of the better under-the-radar bye week fill-in options this week. The Texans' defense buckled a bit last week against Seattle, allowing more than 20 points for the first time, but they're still top seven in both yards per play allowed and takeaways, and the pass rush should be better than it's been with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter coming off the edge.
Key Info
SF injury report: QB Brock Purdy (questionable, toe), WR Ricky Pearsall (questionable, knee), WR Brandon Aiyuk (PUP, knee), LG Ben Bartch (IR, ankle), C Jake Brendel (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Nick Bosa (IR, knee), EDGE Bryce Huff (doubtful, hamstring), LB Fred Warner (IR, ankle), CB Deommodore Lenoir (questionable, quadriceps)
HOU injury report: RB Joe Mixon (NFI, foot), WR Nico Collins (questionable, concussion), WR Christian Kirk (questionable, hamstring), WR Tank Dell (PUP, knee), TE Dalton Schultz (questionable, back), EDGE Denico Autry (questionable, knee)
Slight lean: WR Kendrick Bourne (HOU 26th in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Strong lean: WR Jaylin Noel (SF 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)
Strong fade: QB Mac Jones (HOU second in passing DVOA, fifth in passing yards per game allowed, first in passing TDs allowed)
Slight fade: WR Jayden Higgins (SF 10th in DVOA vs. WR1)
NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: McCaffrey gets held to 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Mac Jones throws for less than 200 yards while getting picked off twice. Woody Marks leads the HOU backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Stroud throws for 220 yards and two scores, finding Noel and Xavier Hutchinson. Texans 21-16
Cleveland (+7) at New England, o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
It tells you everything you need to know about how much credit to give the Browns' offense for last week's outburst, versus the Dolphins' general Dolphins-ness, that Cleveland's 31 points came on only 206 yards. Four takeaways by Rayshawn Jenkins (one INT, one fumble recovery) and company gave Dillon Gabriel, and more importantly Quinshon Judkins, a lot of short fields. Yeah, the game was played in terrible weather, but Gabriel did the most important thing he could have done, which was take care of the ball. 116 passing yards mattered less than his zero turnovers. Judkins, meanwhile, erupted for three rushing TDs, and over the last five games he's been carrying the offense to the tune of 458 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns. That won't be enough to win most weeks, despite the defense's best efforts, but last week it was plenty. The Browns have the Jets, Raiders and Titans on their schedule after their Week 9 bye, so while the team is still no threat to go on a late run to a wild-card spot, a couple upsets along the way might give Cleveland a semi-respectable record when it's all said and done, and maybe save Kevin Stefanski's job. Hey, it has to look good if they're ahead of the Bengals and/or Ravens by the end of the year, right?
Speaking of it looking good when you're ahead of a hated division rival, the Patriots find themselves atop the AFC East at 5-2 after reeling off four straight wins. Drake Maye has established himself as the real deal, committing zero turnovers during the win streak with an eye-popping 78.1 percent completion rate, 10.0 YPA and 7:0 TD:INT, with a rushing score thrown in for good measure. Maye's numbers as a sophomore maybe aren't even doing justice to how good he's been – the Pats' running game remains inconsistent at best, and having Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry and Kayshon Boutte as his top three targets doesn't exactly make Justin Herbert or Dak Prescott jealous. Good as the young QB has been, the New England defense also held all four opponents during the win streak to 20 points or less, which isn't necessarily much of an achievement when it comes to the Saints or Titans, but was a pretty deal against the Bills. Mike Vrabel's return to Foxborough might just land him a Coach of the Year Award.
Key Info
CLE injury report: WR Cedric Tillman (IR, hamstring), TE David Njoku (questionable, knee), LT Dawand Jones (IR, knee), LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (PUP, neck)
NE injury report: no significant injuries
Slight lean: WR Jerry Jeudy (NE 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: WR Stefon Diggs (CLE 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: RB Quinshon Judkins (NE sixth in rushing DVOA, third in YPC allowed, third in rushing yards per game allowed)
Strong fade: RB Rhamondre Stevenson / TreVeyon Henderson (CLE first in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB)
NFL weather report: 10-20 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Judkins puts together 80 yards and a touchdown. Gabriel throws for less than 200 yards. Stevenson leads the NE backfield with 50 yards. Maye steals the show, throwing for 260 yards and two TDs, one each to Diggs and Henry, while running in the first score this season by a QB against the Browns. Patriots 24-10
N.Y. Giants (+7) at Philadelphia, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
OK, Giants fans, do you want the good news first or the bad news? The good news is that Jaxson Dart's been as advertised, leading the team to 66 points over the last two weeks even without Malik Nabers. Cam Skattebo's been a big part of that equation of course, but Dart's TD dive late last week should have gone down in franchise lore, as it capped a four-touchdown performance against a legitimately tough Broncos defense. Now, the bad news – Brian Daboll's still your head coach. Also, your defense is a mess. Dart's 1-yard plunge to take the lead last week left 37 seconds on the clock, and that was apparently more than enough time for Bo Nix to pick apart the Giants' secondary and get into easy field-goal range for Wil Lutz. The Giants have only won two games so far this year, and in both cases they needed the opposition to commit multiple turnovers to do it. In games where they generate one takeaway or fewer, New York's 0-5. Not much Dart or Skattebo can do about that.
One of those two wins came against the Eagles in Week 6, a result that apparently woke the champs up because they went out and thumped the Vikings last week. While it wasn't obvious from the numbers, Philly's been changing its offensive philosophy this season after just ramming Saquon Barkley down everyone's throats last year, and it finally began to click against Minnesota. Jalen Hurts quietly has a 11:1 TD:INT over the last five games, but that had been overshadowed by A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith wondering when they would get their cut. They got it last week, combining for a 13-304-3 line on 17 targets. Brown picked up a hamstring injury along the way and won't suit up for this one, but they probably don't need him. The question is whether they'll shift back to getting Barkley going, now that the passing game's in better shape. He's managed only 109 scrimmage yards over the last two weeks, and a revenge game against the Giants might be just the pick-me-up Saquon needs. The wrinkle in that plan, if it is the plan, is an injury to center Cam Jurgens that weakens an offensive line that already wasn't living up to its reputation in 2025.
Key Info
NYG injury report: WR Malik Nabers (IR, knee), K Graham Gano (IR, groin), EDGE Brian Burns (questionable, hip), LB Micah McFadden (IR, foot), CB Paulson Adebo (out, knee), S Jevon Holland (doubtful, knee)
PHI injury report: WR A.J. Brown (out, hamstring), C Cam Jurgens (out, knee), EDGE Nolan Smith (IR, triceps), EDGE Azeez Ojulari (out, hamstring), CB Adoree' Jackson (out, concussion)
Slight lean: RB Cam Skattebo (PHI 23rd in rushing DVOA, t-26th in rushing TDs allowed to RBs, 26th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Strong lean: RB Saquon Barkley (NYG 31st in rushing DVOA, 30th in YPC allowed, 25th in rushing yards per game allowed)
Strong fade: TE Theo Johnson (PHI first in DVOA vs. TE, third in receiving yards allowed, t-first in TDs allowed to TEs)
Strong fade: WR John Metchie (NYG second in DVOA vs. WR3)
NFL weather report: 10-20 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 8-4 PHI, average score 25-18 PHI, average margin of victory 15 points. NYG have lost 12 straight meetings at the Linc by an average score of 27-15, with their last win in Philly coming in Week 8 of the 2013 season, when the two teams combined for zero offensive TDs. Josh Brown kicked five field goals, and the Eagles' only points in a 15-7 loss came in the fourth quarter on a bad snap over punter Steve Weatherford's head, resulting in a fumble return to the house
The Scoop: Skattebo pops for 120 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Dart throws for less than 200 yards but does find Darius Slayton for a second touchdown. Barkley collects 90 combined yards and a score. Hurts throws for 240 yards and TDs to Smith and Jahan Dotson. Eagles 27-21
LATE SUNDAY
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (+4.5), o/u 47.0
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
While the Panthers and Falcons are being peskier than usual, the Buccaneers continue to cruise along at the top of the NFC South at 5-2. Tampa's two losses have come against Philly and Detroit, which is hardly a black mark against them, and they already have a win in hand over Atlanta. Barring a late collapse (TB faces Carolina in Weeks 16 and 18), the NFL's safest playoff berth appears secure once again. Baker Mayfield's rotating cast of wideouts is back to having Emeka Egbuka at the top of the heap, as Mike Evans has been lost for a couple months in the best-case scenario and Chris Godwin can't quite get healthy, but that just means more opportunities for the Johnsons, Tex and Kameron, to show what they can do. Bucky Irving may not be back until after the team's Week 9 bye either, but Mayfield seems to relish the challenge of putting his options in a blender every week and seeing what kind of smoothie he can whip up. The defense has been reeling a bit the last few weeks, facing Seattle, San Francisco and Detroit back-to-back-to-back, but this game should provide a welcome break.
At 1-6, the Saints have the worst record in the NFC, and with a new head coach in town, the team may be more willing to sell off veterans at the trade deadline than it's been in the past. Alvin Kamara doesn't seem like he's going anywhere though, and Chris Olave is more the kind of name reporters like to throw around this time of year than someone Kellen Moore would seriously like to get rid of. Those might be the only two safe names on the offensive side of the ball, though. The Saints have scored fewer than 20 points in five of seven games and have yet to top 26, and Spencer Rattler's one big selling point – a lack of turnovers – evaporated last week against the Bears when he threw three INTs and lost a fumble to put a cherry on top of his brutal Sunday. Moore isn't making a switch yet, but Tyler Shough's time is coming, and it might happen before New Orleans finally gets its Week 11 bye.
Key Info
TB injury report: RB Bucky Irving (out, foot), WR Mike Evans (IR, collarbone), WR Chris Godwin (out, lower leg), WR Jalen McMillan (IR, neck), RG Cody Mauch (IR, knee), RG Luke Haggard (out, shoulder), LT Luke Goedeke (IR, foot), EDGE Calijah Kancey (IR, pectoral), EDGE Haason Reddick (out, knee), DT Vita Vea (questionable, foot)
NO injury report: RB Kendre Miller (IR, knee), C Erik McCoy (IR, biceps)
Slight lean: WR Emeka Egbuka (NO 26th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: RB Alvin Kamara (TB 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB, 32nd in receiving yards allowed to RBs)
Slight fade: WR Tez Johnson (NO 10th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: WR Chris Olave (TB sixth in DVOA vs. WR1)
NFL weather report: indoors
Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 6-5 TB, average score 22-22 (21.9-21.5 NO, to be precise), average margin of victory 13 points. TB has won three straight meetings at the Superdome by an average score of 32-15 since Todd Bowles took over as head coach
The Scoop: Rachaad White collects 80 combined yards. Mayfield throws for 260 yards and two scores, one each to Egbuka (who tops 100 yards) and Cade Otton. Kamara pops for 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Rattler throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Juwan Johnson, but he also throws a pick-six to Zyon McCollum and gets replaced by Shough late in the game. Buccaneers 24-17
Dallas (+3.5) at Denver, o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
So, full disclosure, I was tempted to override my little score-generating algorithm multiple times this week, with this game being top of the list of results that gave me the ick. I didn't (little buddy's earned the benefit of the doubt so far in 2025), but if I gave confidence grades, this one would get an F. I can see why Al Gorithum would be so high on the Cowboys though, what with their offense being an absolute steamroller. Dak Prescott and crew have posted three 40-burgers already and have topped 400 yards four times, just missing in a fifth with 396. Prescott's building an MVP case, Javonte Williams will come into this one licking his chops for a revenge game after completely turning his career around, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens give the team two legit WR1s, Jake Ferguson has been a TD machine... pretty much every button Brian Schottenheimer has pushed so far in his first year as head coach has worked on offense. And the team's still only 3-3-1, because as good as the offense has been, Matt Eberflus' defense has been just as awful. Last week, they held a Commanders team missing its top three wideouts and (eventually) Jayden Daniels as well to "just" 22 points and 341 yards of offense, and it seemed like the 1985 Bears reborn compared to some of the unit's prior performances. The defense is showing little signs of progress, mainly because veteran retreads like Jack Sanborn have been replaced in the starting lineup by younger, more athletic players like Shemar James, but half the starting secondary will be on the shelf this week, and one of the unit's true potential difference-makers, LB DeMarvion Overshown, likely isn't making his season debut until after the Cowboys' Week 11 bye.
The Broncos' win last week over the Giants felt simultaneously ridiculously improbable, and completely inevitable. However they got there though, Denver's won four straight to shoot to the top of the AFC West, and one of those wins came over Philly to boot. That's the only quality opponent they've beaten so far though, so Sean Payton's squad still has a lot to prove. Bo Nix hasn't committed a turnover in three games and has produced 13 TDs (10 passing, three rushing) against just two INTs over the past six weeks, which is a good starting point for a playoff club. At some point the Broncos will need someone other than Courtland Sutton and J.K. Dobbins to step up, with rookie back RJ Harvey at the top of the list of players who seem like they have a lot more to offer, but the defense is buying OC Joe Lombardi plenty of time to figure it out. Denver's first in sacks and second in pressures (the only team ahead of them? Dallas. The gap in actual sacks between them? It's 34-15. Where have you gone, Micah Parsons, Cowboys Nation turns its increasingly stressed eyes to you), but it's also second in yards per play allowed and first in completion percentage allowed. Having a nasty front seven and a secondary led by Patrick Surtain turns out to be a pretty good combination. Who knew?
Key Info
DAL injury report: LT Tyler Guyton (questionable, lower body), C Cooper Beebe (IR, ankle), LB DeMarvion Overshown (PUP, knee), CB Trevon Diggs (out, concussion), S Juanyeh Thomas (questionable, migraine), S Donovan Wilson (out, elbow), S Malik Hooker (IR, toe)
DEN injury report: LG Ben Powers (IR, biceps), LB Dre Greenlaw (out, suspension)
Slight lean: RB Javonte Williams (DEN 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB, t-29th in receiving TDs allowed to RBs)
Strong lean: WR Courtland Sutton (DAL 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong fade: WR CeeDee Lamb (DEN fourth in DVOA vs. WR1)
No DEN fades against the Cowboys' porous defense
NFL weather report: 10-30 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Williams strikes for 110 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Prescott throws for 300 yards and two more scores, finding Lamb (who tops 100 yards) and KaVontae Turpin. Dobbins responds with 80 yards and a TD, while Harvey adds 50 yards and a receiving touchdown. Nix throws for 210 yards and a second score to Sutton, but there's no late comeback this time. Cowboys 31-27
Tennessee (+14) at Indianapolis, o/u 47.0
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
I'm not sure what there's left to say about the Titans. Mike McCoy started his interim coaching gig by losing big to Mike Vrabel's Patriots – you know, the last good coach the team had. Tennessee limps into this one down its top offensive player in Calvin Ridley and top defensive player in Jeffery Simmons. Cam Ward has progressed to the "snarking at reporters because he has no one else to take his frustrations out on" stage of his rookie crucible. The defense has yet to hold anyone below 20 points this season – and they played the Raiders! -- while the offense struggles to get out of the teens. If it weren't for the Jets, the Titans would be the odds-on favorite to return to the top of the draft in 2026, and frankly, they could use the talent infusion. They may not even have many players to ship out at the trade deadline contenders would be interested in.
The Colts, meanwhile, have the inverse record at 6-1 and are showing no signs of slowing down. Well, to be precise, the offense is showing no signs of slowing down. The defense has coughed up 400-plus yards in back-to-back weeks against the Cards and Bolts, and the Rams tagged them for 462 in that one loss in Week 4, but otherwise Jonathan Taylor, Daniel Jones and company have been able to out-pace the opposition. Jones is fourth in the league in completion percentage (71.0 percent), third in YPA at 8.4, and second in QBR to Dak Prescott. He also has the lowest sack percentage in the league, having been brought down just six times – that's less than Tyrod Taylor, who's only started one game and appeared in three. JT's scored three TDs in three of the last five contests, and he's over 100 yards ahead of Javonte Williams for the rushing crown. Indy could use some trade deadline reinforcements, particularly in the secondary, and they may not get their next real test until after their Week 11 bye when they travel to Kansas City, but with basically all the usual contenders in the AFC looking vulnerable if not all but disappearing from the playoff picture entirely... yaneverknow.
Key Info
TEN injury report: WR Calvin Ridley (out, hamstring), EDGE Jeffery Simmons (out, hamstring), EDGE Arden Key (questionable, quadriceps), CB L'Jarius Sneed (IR, quadriceps), S Xavier Woods (questionable, ankle)
IND injury report: K Spencer Shrader (IR, knee), CB Charvarius Ward (IR, concussion), CB Jaylon Jones (IR, hamstring)
Strong lean: WR Van Jefferson (IND 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight lean: RB Jonathan Taylor (TEN 28th in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)
Strong fade: WR Elic Ayomanor (IND third in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: TE Tyler Warren (TEN sixth in DVOA vs. TE)
NFL weather report: indoors
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 TEN, average score 26-25 IND, average margin of victory 10 points. IND has won five straight meetings by an average score of 31-22, including a 41-20 thumping in Week 3 that marked Taylor's first (of three and counting) three-TD performance this season
The Scoop: Tony Pollard leads the TEN backfield with 50 yards. Ward throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice but does find Jefferson for a TD. Taylor romps for 140 yards and a mere two scores. Jones throws for 330 yards and three touchdowns, two to Michael Pittman (who tops 100 yards) and one to Josh Downs. Colts 38-7
SUNDAY NIGHT
Green Bay at Pittsburgh (+3), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
It feels like the Packers have been something of a disappointment so far given all the Super Bowl hype that accompanied the Micah Parsons trade, but they're 4-1-1 and leading the NFC North, so they can't be playing that badly. They keep cutting it close, though, last week needing 14 fourth-quarter points to get past a Cardinals squad missing its starting QB and top two RBs. Jordan Love exemplifies the disconnect – he's on pace for a career-best campaign with a 69.3 percent completion rate, 8.2 YPA, and 1.1 percent INT rate, but he's also thrown only 10 TDs in six games. It's good, but it is Lombardi Trophy good? Part of the problem is a banged-up WR group that could really use a breakout from first-round pick Matthew Golden any day now, but until then Love will keep leaning on Tucker Kraft, Romeo Doubs and especially Josh Jacobs (multiple rushing TDs in three straight games) to get points on the board. As for Parsons and the defense, he's tied with Rashan Gary for the team lead with 5.5 sacks apiece, and while the team is only on the fringes of the top 10 in raw sacks, the Pack are second to the Broncos in QB knockdown rate, and the defense as a whole is first in yards per play allowed. This is still a potential second-half juggernaut if things click into place.
The Steelers also roll into this one atop their division at 4-2, but after losing to a Joe Flacco-led Bengals squad this week, it's not clear how good they actually are. The defense has gone back-to-back games without a takeaway after racking up 10 in the first four weeks, and the Steel Curtain has seemed more like one of those tin foil-looking thermal blankets this year. Aaron Rodgers has given the offense a much higher floor while working to turn DK Metcalf into his new Davante Adams, but the running game also remains distinctly un-Pittsburgh-like, as Jaylen Warren's still looking for his first rushing touchdown of the season and third-round rookie Kaleb Johnson has been a bust to date. With the rest of AFC North imploding, Mike Tomlin almost has another winning season locked up already, but asking this roster to win the franchise's first playoff game since 2016 is another thing entirely.
Key Info
GB injury report: RB MarShawn Lloyd (IR, hamstring), WR Jayden Reed (IR, collarbone), WR Christian Watson (PUP, knee), WR Matthew Golden (questionable, hip), WR Dontayvion Wicks (out, calf), K Brandon McManus (questionable, quadriceps), EDGE Lukas Van Ness (out, foot)
PIT injury report: C Zach Frazier (questionable, calf)
Slight lean: WR Romeo Doubs (PIT 24th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: WR Calvin Austin (GB 26th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: WR Matthew Golden (PIT fifth in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: QB Aaron Rodgers (GB fifth in passing DVOA)
NFL weather report: 15-25 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Jacobs churns out 110 yards and another two scores. Love throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Doubs and Kraft. Warren stitches together 80 combined yards, while Kenneth Gainwell punches in a short TD. Rodgers throws for 210 yards and two scores, one each to Metcalf and (pulls TE name out of a hat for National Tight End Day) Darnell Washington, but it's Green Bay that gets some revenge on him. Packers 28-24
THURSDAY NIGHT
Minnesota (+3.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 44.5
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
The Vikings have had a "one step forward, one step back" kind of season, leaving them 3-3 and in the NFC North basement after last week's loss to the Eagles. Minnesota's secondary, which hadn't allowed even 200 net passing yards through the first five weeks, got ambushed by Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, a worrying trend heading into a clash with Justin Herbert and the Chargers' trio of star wideouts, not to mention emerging rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden. The Vikes are getting healthier, though. While Carson Wentz will get at least one more start under center, Aaron Jones could return Thursday night to bolster the rushing attack, taking some pressure off a passing game that's badly missed Sam Darnold. The team's biggest issue, though, has been turnovers — toss out a rout over an unserious opponent in the Bengals, and the Vikings' offense has coughed up the ball seven times, while the defense has only stolen it twice, with zero takeaways since Week 3. That will need to change of Kevin O'Connell's crew is going to climb back into the playoff picture.
Turnovers have also been an issue for the Chargers, as they've committed at least one giveaway in six consecutive games, and seven times in total in their recent 1-3 stumble. The injuries in the backfield have drawn the headlines, but it's the ones along the offensive line that have forced Herbert to be a little more reckless — his six INTs this season are already double the number he threw in 17 games in 2024. Having less time in the pocket has also impacted where the ball was going. While Quentin Johnston was thriving as a deep threat early, Ladd McConkey and Gadsden have seen their target volume rise on aDOTs of 8.4 and 7.6. The good news for Week 8 is that tackles Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins might both suit up, but if they remain sidelined, Herbert — who's also getting sacked about three times a game — could be in for another stressful night.
Key Info
MIN injury report: QB J.J. McCarthy (questionable, ankle), RB Aaron Jones (IR, hamstring), LT Christian Darrisaw (questionable, knee), C Ryan Kelly (IR, concussion), RT Brian O'Neill (questionable, knee), EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel (out, neck)
LAC injury report: RB Omarion Hampton (IR, ankle), RB Najee Harris (IR, Achilles), RB Hassan Haskins (out, hamstring), LT Rashawn Slater (IR, knee), LT/RT Joe Alt (questionable, ankle), RT Trey Pipkins (questionable, knee), S Elijah Molden (questionable, thumb)
Strong lean: RB Jordan Mason / Aaron Jones (LAC 30th in rushing DVOA, 28th in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed)
Strong lean: WR Ladd McConkey (MIN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong fade: WR Jordan Addison (LAC first in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: WR Quentin Johnston (MIN fifth in DVOA vs. WR3)
NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Jones plays, but Mason leads the MIN backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Wentz throws for 240 yards and two TDs, both to Justin Jefferson, but he also tosses a pick-six to Derwin James. Kimani Vidal grinds out 60 yards. Herbert throws for 210 yards and two scores, one each to McConkey and Keenan Allen. Vikings 27-24
Last week's record: 11-4, 10-5 ATS, 10-5 o/u
2025 record: 71-36-1 (.664), 59-47-2 ATS (.557), 49-58-1 o/u (.458)
