THURSDAY NIGHT
Baltimore at Miami (+7.5), o/u 50.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
If the Ravens do end up picking themselves up off the mat, they can thank Tyler Huntley. The career backup made his first start of the season last week and completed 77.3 percent of his passes with an 8.5 YPA while adding 53 rushing yards in a win over the Bears. Baltimore's only 2-5, but Pittsburgh's still well within reach atop the AFC North at 4-3, and the two teams don't meet until Week 14, with the rematch coming on the final weekend. If Lamar Jackson were in danger of missing more time, that kind of comeback might be unthinkable, but he's set to return in Miami. Derrick Henry has started to rumble to life, and the defense played a bit better against Chicago, but this is Jackson's season to save. The Ravens scored 111 points in their first three games before he got hurt in Week 4, and that's probably the kind of production they'll need on that side of the ball to stay competitive. DC Zach Orr's unit isn't Dallas or Cincinnati-level bad this year, but it's pretty bad, ranking 25th in yards per play allowed, 30th in points per game allowed, tied for 30th in takeaways and 30th in sacks. Perhaps improvement is coming as the Ravens get healthier, however.
The Dolphins also pulled a win out of their... helmets last week, taking advantage of the Falcons having to put the moldering remains of Kirk Cousins at QB to steal a victory in Atlanta. There was undoubtedly some measure of wounded pride involved for the likes of Tua Tagovailoa, who produced his best performance of the season one week after his worst while battling the elements in Cleveland, but this still seems like a team with impending doom looming over it. The secondary lost another starter when Storm Duck (no relation to Howard, I don't think) went down for the season, and Tyreek Hill might never walk through that door again. There's still enough talent on offense to make some noise against a generous defense like Baltimore's, but DC Anthony Weaver's troops have been pretty accommodating too, ranking 28th in yards per play allowed, tied for 26th in points per game allowed and 27th in third-down efficiency allowed.
Key Info
BAL injury report: LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, ankle), EDGE Nnamdi Madubuike (IR, neck)
MIA injury report: WR Tyreek Hill (IR, knee), TE Darren Waller (IR, pectoral), TE Julian Hill (questionable, ankle), LG Liam Eichenberg (PUP, undisclosed), RG James Daniels (IR, pectoral), RT Austin Jackson (IR, toe), K Jason Sanders (IR, hip), EDGE Bradley Chubb (questionable, shoulder), CB Storm Duck (IR, knee), CB Kader Kohou (IR, knee), S Ashtyn Davis (questionable, quadriceps)
Strong lean: QB Lamar Jackson (MIA 29th in passing DVOA, 31st in QB rating against, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed to QBs)
Slight lean: WR Jaylen Waddle (BAL 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: WR Rashod Bateman (MIA first in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Slight fade: WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (BAL 19th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Henry thunders for 100 yards and a touchdown, while Justice Hill adds 50 scrimmage yards. Jackson throws for 250 yards and a TD to Isaiah Likely while running in a score of his own. De'Von Achane responds with 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Tagovailoa throws for 210 yards and two TDs, hitting Waddle and Malik Washington, but he also throws a back-breaking INT in the fourth quarter that sets up Tyler Loop's game-winning FG. Ravens 27-24
Last week's record: 8-5, 7-6 ATS, 9-4 o/u
2025 record: 79-41-1 (.658), 66-53-2 ATS (.555), 58-62-1 o/u (.483)
