With the NFL season kicking off this week, RotoWire.com used data from sports-reference.com to see how the past decade of NFL MVP winners did in September the season they won the award. Here's what we found for the last 10 MVPs, dating back to Cam Newton's lone MVP season in 2015.
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How Do NFL MVP Winners Do in September?
MVP Winner | Completion % | TD Passes | Passing Yards Per Game |
Josh Allen (2024) | 69.7% | 7 | 203.5 |
Lamar Jackson (2023) | 73.7% | 2 | 202.7 |
Patrick Mahomes (2022) | 67.5% | 8 | 285.7 |
Aaron Rodgers (2021) | 68.3% | 6 | 216.3 |
Aaron Rodgers (2020) | 66.1% | 9 | 295.7 |
Lamar Jackson (2019) | 67.9% | 10 | 277.5 |
Patrick Mahomes (2018) | 67.0% | 13 | 298.7 |
Tom Brady (2017) | 64.2% | 8 | 364 |
Matt Ryan (2016) | 70.8% | 7 | 323.3 |
Cam Newton (2015) | 57.1% | 5 | 228.3 |
Average | 67.2% | 7.5 | 269.6 |
Analyzing September Performances of NFL MVP Winners
Based on the performance put in by the last 10 MVP winners, it seems like September success equals year-end accolades, with each of them putting up at least 200 passing yards per game, with completion percentages that ranged from 57.1% in Newton's case to 73.7% for Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens in 2023.
Last year's winner (Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills) threw for 814 yards and seven touchdowns (to zero interceptions), pacing Buffalo to a 4-0 start to the year and setting the stage for a season where the eighth year QB out of Wyoming would rack up 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns through the air, along with 531 yards and 12 scores on the ground.
Jackson's numbers the year prior were equally stellar in September, with a slight decrease in passing yards per game (202.7) and touchdowns thrown (two) but offset by having 193 yards on the ground in Baltimore's three September contests that season, which the Ravens went 2-1 during.
Over the last decade, the NFL MVP with the most touchdowns thrown in September was Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs, who had 13 in 2018, while Jackson had the fewest, followed by Newton's five in 2015 and six by Aaron Rodgers in 2021.
The MVP-winning QB with the most passing yards per game in September was Tom Brady in 2017, with the New England Patriots star throwing for 364 yards per game with eight touchdowns during the Pats' 13-3 run that ultimately ended with a 41-33 loss to Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LII.
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Which NFL QBs Might Shine in 2025?
This year, it seems like it might be a case of "Three's Company" for Jackson and the Ravens, as the two-time NFL MVP-winning QB is currently the preseason favorite to pick up another accolade on bet365, with the Heisman Trophy winner from Louisville listed at +500, ahead of Allen (+550) and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals (+600).
The story is much the same across several other leading U.S. online sportsbooks, with operators like FanDuel Sportsbook giving NFL bettors +430 odds on Jackson winning the NFL's MVP award in 2025, while Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook both list him at +550 entering the 2025 league year.
Based on the league's recent history, whichever player does win the NFL MVP award in 2025 will have to live up to the billing set by players like Allen and Jackson, with the last 10 QBs to win the honor completing 67.2% of their passes on average, along with 7.5 touchdowns and 269.6 passing yards per game during the ninth month of the calendar year.
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Q&A Section
Q: How does RotoWire determine NFL MVP performance in September?
A: RotoWire analyzed NFL MVP winners from the past decade using data from sports-reference.com. The study looked at each winner's September stats during their MVP season, focusing on completion percentage, touchdown passes, and passing yards per game. This provides a snapshot of how quickly MVP quarterbacks typically start their award-winning campaigns.
Q: Who had the best September among NFL MVP winners in the last 10 years?
A: Tom Brady (2017) and Patrick Mahomes (2018) delivered two of the strongest September performances. Brady averaged 364 passing yards per game, the highest in the sample, while Mahomes threw an impressive 13 touchdown passes in September 2018. Both set the tone for their MVP-winning seasons with dominant early stretches.
Q: What is the average September stat line for an NFL MVP winner?
A: On average, an NFL MVP winner posts a 67.2% completion rate, 7.5 touchdown passes, and 269.6 passing yards per game in September. These numbers suggest that MVP-caliber quarterbacks typically open the season with strong accuracy, steady scoring, and high yardage output.
