NFL Line Movement: NFL Week 4
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
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NFL Week 4 Odds (Opening/Current)
Week 4 NFL Lines
- Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (Cardinals -2.5 O/U 46.5) / (Cardinals -1.5 at DraftKings, Seahawks -1.5 at ESPN Bet O/U 43.5)
- Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (Vikings -1.5 O/U 42.5) / (Vikings -2.5 O/U 41.0)
- Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (Commanders -3.5 O/U 48.5) / (Commanders -2.5 O/U 45.5)
- New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (Bills -12.5 O/U 46.5) / (Bills -16.5 O/U 47.5)
- Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (Lions -10.5 O/U 45.5) / (Lions -8.5 O/U 45.0)
- Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (Texans -5.5 O/U 44.5) / (Texans -7.0 O/U 39.5)
- Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (Patriots -3.5 O/U 45.5) / (Patriots -5.5 O/U 44.0)
- Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (Chargers -3.5 O/U 43.5) / (Chargers -6.0 O/U 44.5)
- Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Eagles -1.5 O/U 48.5) / (Eagles -3.0 O/U 43.5)
- Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (Rams -6.5 O/U 46.5) / (Rams -3.5 O/U 49.0)
- Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (49ers -5.5 O/U 48.5) / (49ers -3.5 O/U 46.5)
- Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (Chiefs -1.5 O/U 48.5) / (Ravens -2.5 O/U 48.0)
- Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (Bears -1.5 O/U 45.5) / (Raiders -1.0 O/U 48.0)
- Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (Packers -1.5 O/U 47.5) / (Packers -6.5 O/U 47.5)
- New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (Dolphins -5.5 O/U 44.5) / (Dolphins -2.5 O/U 44.5)
- Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (Broncos -2.5 O/U 47.5) / (Broncos -7.0 O/U 44.0)
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NFL Week 4 Key Injury News
QB - Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy, Mac Jones
RB - Jaydon Blue, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, james Conner, Najee Harris, Tyrone Tracy Jr
WR - Xavier Worthy, Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed, Brian Thomas Jr, CeeDee Lamb, Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, Dynami Brown
TE - George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, Colston Loveland, Noah Fant, Michael Mayer
Other key players
OL Christian Darrisaw, S Harrison Smith, T Tristan Wirfs, DT Ed Oliver, DE Nick Bosa
NFL Week 4 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Bills -15.5 vs Saints; the books are divided on Seahawks/Cardinals (1.5)
- The highest total game is Rams/Colts 49.5; the lowest total is Titans/Texans 38.5
- There are six road favorites in Week 4
- The majority of game totals have moved down
- There is a heavy concentration of totals between 43.5-45.5 points
- The highest team totals are Bills, Lions, Packers, Rams, Broncos
- The lowest team totals are the Titans, Saints, Bengals, Browns, Steelers
NFL Week 4 Line Movement
A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos
The Joe Burrow injury has impacted the Bengals in a significant way, evidenced by losing to the Vikings 48-10. The Broncos had opened -2.5, and when it reopened last week, the line moved to Broncos -6.5. The line spiked to -7.5 and immediately came down to -7.0. The total has also moved and gone from 47.5 to 44.0.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Most of the major line moves are a result of an injury to a quarterback, but this game is mostly a result of the Packers' strong start, moving to +750 to win the Super Bowl (tied with the Eagles).
The Packers blew a 10-0 lead Sunday and lost to the Browns on the road 13-10, but that does not seem to have impacted this line at all. The Cowboys lost to the Bears 31-14 and also lost CeeDee Lamb to injury.
The Packers were originally installed as -1.5 road favorites and it reopened at -2.5 on 8/28, but the big line move came on 9/17 to -4, then -4.5, -5.0, and climbed to -6.5.
There has been some movement on the total going from 47.5 and peaked at 49.0, before coming back down to 47.5.
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
We saw a big line move on Eagles/Chiefs, and we also see one on Ravens/Chiefs. Until the Chiefs win a big game, we will continue to see line moves against them when they face the better teams.
The Chiefs opened as -1.5 home favorites, which was already an indication that their power rating had dropped. Normally, the Chiefs would be -3 at a minimum in Arrowhead. We could still see some line movement on this game with the Ravens playing the Lions on Monday Night.
The Chiefs are dealing with injuries to wide receivers, and their offense has looked lackluster, which is the biggest reason for the line drop.
New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills
The Saints are power-rated as the worst team in the NFL, especially after getting blown out against the Seahawks 44-13. The Bills beat the Jets on Thursday night 31-21, and did not cover the -11.5 point spread.
The Bills opened as -12.5 home favorites, and it has moved to -14.5 on 9/16, it went to -16.0 on 9/17, and peaked at -17.0. 17-point favorites are rare in the NFL, and it is a key number.
Other Games with Line Movement
Eagles at Bucs 48.5 to 43.5
Titans at Texans 44.5 to 39.5
