NFL Odds, Picks and Predictions for Texans vs. Chargers
Two AFC playoff squads that are still gunning for their respective division crowns face off for late-season Saturday afternoon clash, and we dive into best bets to consider.
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Texans vs. Chargers NFL Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Texans +108 (FanDuel) / Chargers -121 (Caesars)
- Point spread: Texans +1.5 (DraftKings) / Chargers -1.5 (Caesars)
- Totals: Over 39.5 points (DraftKings) / Under 39.5 points (FanDuel)
The spread for this game has evolved in interesting fashion over the last week-plus, as the Chargers have moved from underdog to favorite. Los Angeles was getting 1.5 points before Week 16 kicked off, but that was before the Chargers recorded an impressive 34-17 road win over the Cowboys and the Texans struggled to squeeze out a 23-21 victory over the visiting Raiders. Following those results, the line flipped, and the number has bounced between Chargers -1.5 and -2.5 since.
Meanwhile, the total has been the epitome of stability, as it was a lowly 39.5 before Week 16 and remains at that number heading into the weekend. The talent of both defenses is naturally playing an integral role in the public's perception of a low-scoring game, and Houston's struggles to score against Las Vegas last week may also be playing a part.
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Texans vs. Chargers NFL Picks
The Texans enter Saturday's clash on a seven-game winning streak, one where five of the victories have come by single digits. As that statistical nugget corroborates, Houston has been playing things close, a luxury its typically elite defense affords most weeks. The Texans have surrendered 20 points or less in five of those contests and 21 versus the Raiders in Week 16, making their 36-29 track meet against the Jaguars that kicked off that winning stretch the only real exception.
Houston is up against a talented offense Saturday, but the Bolts' injury-depleted offensive line has sometimes capped the Chargers' upside on that side of the ball. That could certainly be evident in a matchup against a Texans defense that's racked up 41 sacks and 16 interceptions, especially since Los Angeles will be missing Justin Herbert's blind-side protector, left tackle Jamaree Salyer (hamstring). Additionally, Mekhi Becton (knee) is listed as questionable, while Joe Alt (ankle) has been on injured reserve since early November.
While the Texans' offense tends to have its own issues with consistency on occasion – not to mention some O-line struggles as well – Houston will have Woody Marks back from a one-game absence, and that could well prove to be the tipping point of the game. The talented rookie's availability gives the Texans a chance to capitalize on a Chargers run D that's been vulnerable at times and is surrendering 4.5 RB yards per carry and is ranked No. 21 in both second-level and open-field yards allowed.
Ultimately, I see the Texans having enough to keep this game very close and potentially pull an upset, so we'll use FanDuel's Alt. Spread feature to give them just over a field goal's worth of points and also bank on Marks getting to at least 40 rushing yards for the eighth time this season.
Texans vs. Chargers NFL Bets:
- SGP: Texans Alt. Spread +3.5 and Woody Marks 40+ rushing yards (+109 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Over 39.5 points (-108 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Texans vs. Chargers NFL Prediction
Texans 21, Chargers 20
Neither team figures to have anywhere near its highest-percentile offensive performance, as already detailed. The two squads are about as evenly matched as it gets on offense, but Houston has the more complete defense. With Marks healthy for Houston, I like the Texans' chances of moving the ball just a bit better and delivering an upset road win.
